November WASDE: USDA Raises Wheat and Corn Stocks, Cuts Soybean Stocks

The biggest surprise in the 10 November 2026 WASDE report was global wheat ending stocks. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) raised its forecast to 280.82 million tonnes, 2.22 million tonnes above the top of the pre-report range. At the same time, it lowered its export forecasts for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn and soybean estimates stayed within their respective ranges, but projected US stocks for both crops came in below analysts’ expectations.

Wheat: More Stocks, Lower Black Sea Export Forecasts

Analysts had expected global wheat stocks to rise by just 0.40 million tonnes from October on average. USDA raised the forecast by 4.78 million tonnes. Higher projected production, led by Argentina and Australia, and higher beginning stocks more than offset the increase in projected consumption. Even after the November revision, world stocks remain slightly below the previous season’s estimate of 282.86 million tonnes.

Ukraine and Russia accounted for 2.20 million tonnes, or 46%, of the increase in projected world stocks. USDA nevertheless cut their export forecasts by 1 million tonnes each, to 11.5 million tonnes for Ukraine and 39.0 million tonnes for Russia, as shipments continue to lag long-term averages amid the war in the Black Sea region. Ukraine’s projected ending stocks rose from 6.10 to 7.30 million tonnes as a larger crop and lower exports outweighed higher domestic use.

Australia and Argentina together added 1.50 million tonnes to projected exports, but the world trade forecast still fell from 208.97 to 208.66 million tonnes. For importers, higher stocks at origin matter when grain can be shipped in the required window. Offers from alternative origins are therefore best compared by wheat class, shipment window and delivered cost.

Corn: World Stocks Rise While The US Balance Tightens

Projected world corn ending stocks reached 281.94 million tonnes, just 0.50 million tonnes above the pre-report average. The world forecast rose by 1.50 million tonnes from October, while the projection outside China fell by 0.32 million tonnes. China’s increase more than accounted for the world revision. Projected global stocks are also still 26.37 million tonnes below the 2025/26 estimate.

USDA lowered the US corn crop forecast by 141 million bushels. Reductions in projected feed and residual use and exports offset just 50 million bushels of that loss. Projected US ending stocks fell to 1.758 billion bushels, 82 million bushels below the pre-report average. The ratio of ending stocks to total use, including exports, declined from 11.3% to 10.8%.

Ukraine’s corn crop forecast held at 31.80 million tonnes, but projected exports fell from 22 to 20 million tonnes and ending stocks rose by the same 2 million tonnes. Argentina’s export forecast moved in the opposite direction, from 38 to 40 million tonnes. For buyers, that makes it useful to compare actual offers from the two origins for the same delivery dates: an annual export revision does not establish how much grain is available in a particular month.

Soybeans: US Stocks Miss Expectations Despite A Larger Crop Forecast

The pre-report average pointed to a small increase in global soybean stocks from October. USDA instead cut its projection by 0.78 million tonnes to 123.50 million tonnes. That was 1.23 million tonnes below the average but within the pre-report range. Projected world crush and exports increased while production was revised down. China’s import forecast remained at 115 million tonnes.

In the US, a 25-million-bushel increase in projected exports more than offset the 12-million-bushel increase in the crop forecast. With the crush forecast unchanged, ending stocks fell to 300 million bushels, 31 million bushels, or 9.4%, below the pre-report average. The stocks-to-use ratio fell from 6.9% to 6.5%. New export sales and actual shipments are the separate measures to watch to see whether this tighter outlook holds.

What To Check For Nearby Shipments

For wheat and corn, watch whether shipments from Ukrainian ports pick up and whether the gap in delivered offers between Black Sea and alternative origins narrows for comparable dates. For soybeans, the key test is whether US shipments sustain the higher export forecast. These indicators will help show how the seasonal balance sheet revisions translate into the availability of nearby cargoes.

Pre-report averages: Didion’s 6 November 2026 market update. Estimate ranges: Zaner Ag Hedge, using Reuters data. Figures for 2026/27 are projections. Changes are versus the October WASDE unless otherwise stated.