Market Report 31.07.2026

US rains pressure corn and soybeans as Black Sea and European supply risks reshape trade flows

General market overview

🚢 The Black Sea factor remains important, although the market has already absorbed part of the previous support. Slower Black Sea exports may create localized shortages for importers dependent on the region, while grain accumulation at port terminals is pressuring local prices.
🛢️ Ukraine attacked one of Russia’s largest Lukoil oil-refining complexes. This maintains geopolitical risk premium, although agricultural markets are currently more focused on weather, technical signals and fund positioning.
🚢🇪🇺 Rhine water levels are near record lows, while barge freight rates have tripled since the end of June. This is intensifying logistics pressure across Europe.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 Significant rainfall is expected across the central Midwest, the eastern crop belt and the southeastern US, improving soil moisture ahead of mid-August. However, the 6–10 and 8–14 day outlooks shift back toward warmer and drier conditions, with limited rainfall potential in the western Corn Belt, the southern Plains and western spring wheat areas.
🌡️🇪🇺 Drought continues to affect EU crops, although isolated rainfall chances appear during the second week of the forecast. Heat is expected to intensify in Ukraine over the weekend.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are ending the week on a very weak note. Without a strong recovery today, the November contract could lose almost $0.70/bu over the week. Sellers strengthened their control after last week’s upside breakout failed to hold.
🌦️🇺🇸 Midwest rainfall is arriving at a favorable stage for pod development and soil-moisture recovery. This is reducing weather premium, although the share of US soybeans under drought increased by 8 percentage points to 26%, compared with only 5% last year.
🇨🇳 SinoGrain sold half of the 500,000 t of soybeans offered at its previous auction and scheduled another 500,000 t auction for next Wednesday, potentially creating storage capacity for US arrivals. Meanwhile, new-crop export sales look stronger: China and “unknown destinations” account for 5.6 MMT of the total 7.469 MMT sold.
🏭 USDA will publish June soybean processing data on Monday. The market expects crush at 217.9 million bushels, compared with 196.9 million bushels last year, while stocks are expected to be 11.5% higher y/y.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export sales for the week ended July 23 totaled 302,000 t for the current marketing year and 1.333 MMT for new crop, bringing combined sales to 1.635 MMT. Cumulative new-crop sales reached 16.5% of USDA’s forecast, above the 14.2% five-year average.
📉 Soybean meal sales were the lowest since November 6 last year, while soybean oil recorded net cancellations of 1,100 t. August soybean oil deliveries were substantial at 1,566 contracts.
📉 The fundamental backdrop for soybeans deteriorated this week due to favorable US weather, while the technical picture also turned negative. Month-end flows may increase volatility, but the path of least resistance currently remains lower.

Bottom line: Soybeans remain under pressure from favorable US rainfall, the failure of last week’s technical breakout and weaker fund sentiment. Strong new-crop sales provide partial demand support, but they are not yet sufficient to reverse the negative short-term picture.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn remains under pressure as significant Midwest rainfall potential reduces crop risks following the pollination period. The market closed near the lower end of its daily range in three of the past four sessions.
🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall next week should materially improve soil-moisture reserves ahead of mid-August. This outweighs the increase in the share of US corn under drought, which rose by 9 percentage points to 29%, compared with 7% last year.
🇪🇺 EU drought continues to pressure the corn crop. The European Commission lowered its production forecast to 51.9 MMT, down from 59.9 MMT last month. Total EU grain production is expected to decline by 9.4%, while corn imports could increase by 5 MMT y/y.
🇫🇷 French corn conditions declined by another 4 percentage points, marking the seventh consecutive weekly deterioration. This supports expectations for a weaker European crop.
🇺🇦 Despite the expected intensification of heat, the Ukrainian Grain Association says corn is developing well and raised its production forecast by 3.2% y/y to 32.1 MMT.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export sales for the week ended July 23 totaled 363,000 t for the current marketing year and 1.062 MMT for new crop, bringing combined sales to 1.425 MMT. Cumulative new-crop sales reached 10.6% of USDA’s forecast, below the 14.2% five-year average.
📉 Demand is temporarily moving into the background as favorable US weather increases production expectations. A sustained August rally usually requires hot and dry conditions after pollination.

Bottom line: Corn remains in a negative trend due to improving US weather and a weaker technical structure. European crop losses could support demand for US corn later in the season, but the market is currently reacting more strongly to the prospect of higher US supply.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Yesterday’s morning wheat rally failed to hold, and the September Chicago contract is again testing this week’s lows. The market appears to have temporarily absorbed support from Black Sea risks.
🚢 Slower Black Sea exports may create localized shortages for importers, but grain accumulation at port terminals is pressuring local prices. This limits the net positive effect on futures.
🇺🇦 The Ukrainian Grain Association raised its wheat production estimate by 5.3% to 23.7 MMT, adding supply to a market already facing weaker local prices.
🇪🇺 The European Commission lowered its soft wheat ending-stocks forecast to 12.9 MMT, down from 13.8 MMT last month, after usable production was reduced by 2 MMT m/m.
🇺🇸 The share of HRS spring wheat under drought increased by 17 percentage points to 42%. Next week’s rainfall may reach the eastern half of the northern Plains, but western areas are expected to remain mostly dry.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales for the week ended July 23 totaled 285,000 t for the current marketing year, with no new-crop sales. Cumulative sales reached 32.8% of USDA’s forecast, below the 35.9% five-year average.
📉 Deteriorating HRS conditions may become a more important factor over the coming weeks. For now, however, the failed attempt to extend the rally points to continued seller control. This is also a seasonally difficult period for an independent wheat rally when corn and soybeans are moving lower.

Bottom line: Wheat lost momentum after failing to extend its rally, although Black Sea risks, lower EU soft wheat stocks and worsening HRS conditions remain supportive factors.

🌻 Sunflower complex

🚢🇷🇺 Russian sunflower oil exports could decline by 40% y/y in August to around 150,000 t due to logistics restrictions in the Azov–Black Sea region. July exports are also expected to be 14.3% lower y/y and almost 54% below June.
🚢🇷🇺 Logistics are the main constraint. Shipments through Azov Sea ports have nearly stopped, while shipowners are reluctant to enter Black Sea ports because of elevated security risks. More than half of Russia’s vegetable oil exports previously moved through Azov–Black Sea ports.
🚢🇷🇺🇮🇳 Russian exporters are attempting to redirect cargoes through the Baltic and Caspian regions. They are also considering a route through Iran to Gulf of Oman ports for further deliveries to India. However, these alternatives are unlikely to fully offset lost volumes because of high logistics costs and limited port capacity.

Bottom line: Logistics disruptions in the Azov–Black Sea region could sharply reduce Russian sunflower oil exports. Alternative routes may preserve part of the trade flow, but are unlikely to fully compensate for the lost capacity.