Market Report 30.10.2026

Grain and oilseed markets face supply pressure as strong export demand and rising oil prices provide support

🌍 General market overview

💵 Following the Federal Reserve's decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the US dollar weakened slightly amid increased demand for safe-haven assets. This moderately improves the external environment for dollar-denominated agricultural commodities and provides some support for US export competitiveness.
🛢️📈 Crude oil prices are rising sharply following renewed security concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and Iran. Higher energy prices support biofuels and vegetable oils, while also increasing logistics costs and inflation risks across agricultural markets.
🇧🇷 The weakening Brazilian real continues to encourage farmer selling and improve Brazil's competitiveness in global agricultural markets. This currency effect creates additional pressure, particularly on soybeans and corn.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 CBOT soybeans are trading slightly higher after four consecutive sessions of losses. Strong export demand and recovering vegetable oil prices are helping stabilize the market, although ample US supplies, cheaper Brazilian soybeans, and weakness in soybean meal continue to limit the rebound.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US soybean export sales reached 2.576 MMT, down 9% w/w but approximately 78% above last year. China purchased 1.627 MMT, remaining the largest buyer of US soybeans.
🚢🇺🇸 USDA confirmed an additional 120,000 t soybean sale to unknown destinations on October 28 for the 2026/27 marketing year. Physical demand remains strong, although even large export announcements have recently generated a weaker futures market reaction than earlier in the month.
🚢🇨🇳 According to market estimates, China still needs to purchase approximately 8 MMT of US soybeans to meet its stated annual target. Much of the confirmed demand is linked to state-directed purchases, while additional tariffs continue to restrict buying by private Chinese crushers.
📉 Soybean meal remains the weakest part of the complex, pressured by liquidation of a large speculative net long position.
🛢️ Soybean oil is receiving support from recovering crude and palm oil prices following earlier losses. However, high vegetable oil inventories in China and weaker domestic demand continue to limit upside potential.
🌦️🇧🇷 Weather conditions for Brazil's new soybean crop are generally improving. Rainfall is returning to central growing regions, while excessive moisture in the south is gradually easing. This supports planting and early crop development, reducing near-term weather risk premiums.

Bottom line: The current soybean rebound remains cautious, as strong export demand is only partially offsetting pressure from ample physical supplies and more competitive Brazilian origin. A sustained recovery would require another demand catalyst or deterioration in South American crop prospects.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading quietly with a slight downward bias after a nearly unchanged previous session. Large US supplies remain the main bearish factor, although strong domestic consumption and active import demand are preventing a sharper decline.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales totaled 1.304 MMT, down approximately 15% w/w but still above the recent monthly average. This confirms steady demand at lower price levels.
🚢🇰🇷 Asian demand also remains active, with South Korean buyers reportedly purchasing approximately 204,000 t of corn. The recent decline in global prices is encouraging importers to return to the market, although the purchased grain may not necessarily originate from the United States.
🏭🇺🇸 The ethanol industry continues to support strong domestic corn use. US ethanol production reached 1.118 million barrels per day, while inventories declined slightly. The current processing pace is sufficient to meet USDA's annual corn-for-ethanol demand forecast.
🇺🇸 Meanwhile, the large US harvest and continued arrivals of new-crop grain are maintaining considerable physical supply pressure. Current demand is absorbing part of the additional supply, but not quickly enough to reverse the market's weak structure.
🇧🇷🇦🇷 South America is also generating little weather risk premium. Rapid soybean planting in Brazil improves prospects for timely second-crop corn planting, while Argentina's fieldwork is progressing with adequate soil moisture.

Bottom line: Corn remains near recent lows as active demand is not yet sufficient to absorb the large US supply quickly. Strong ethanol consumption and renewed importer interest provide support, but fundamental conditions still offer limited justification for a sustained recovery.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is trading quietly with a slight downward bias following yesterday's rebound. Strong US export sales and renewed signs of Asian demand are providing support, but the partial recovery of Russian export flows and expectations for large Southern Hemisphere crops continue to limit buying momentum.
🇪🇺 The European wheat market is also balancing support from demand for alternatives to Black Sea grain against expectations of increasing global supplies.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales for the week ended October 22 reached 849,800 t, the highest level of the current marketing year and well above market expectations. The main buyers were the Philippines, South Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Mexico.
🚢🇨🇳 Another positive signal came from reports that China's state-owned COFCO requested offers for US soft red winter (SRW) wheat for shipment in early 2027. No major purchase has been confirmed, so this remains an indication of potential demand rather than a completed transaction.
🚢🇰🇷 Actual Asian demand has also strengthened. A South Korean flour milling group purchased approximately 50,000 t of US milling wheat. Combined with strong weekly export sales, this points to a much better near-term demand environment for US origin than in recent weeks.
📉 Nevertheless, cumulative US wheat export commitments remain approximately 29% below last year's level. One strong sales week improves the immediate demand picture but does not yet indicate a full recovery in seasonal export performance.
🚢🇷🇺 The partial resumption of Russian grain shipments through the Sea of Azov remains an important bearish factor. Permits for vessels passing through the Kerch Strait are valid only until November 15. Russian supplies could therefore increase in the short term, although safe logistics have not been fully restored.
🌍 Australia and Argentina are approaching a period of increased new-crop availability, intensifying competition among global wheat exporters. At the same time, excessive rainfall and other weather issues in both countries pose quality risks for part of the milling wheat crop.

Bottom line: Wheat remains under mild pressure as stronger US demand signals have not yet outweighed expectations of increasing global supplies. Export sales and Asian buying interest provide meaningful support, but renewed Russian shipments and the approaching Southern Hemisphere harvest continue to restrict upside potential.