Market Report 30.09.2026

General market overview

• 📑📊 USDA will release its quarterly grain and soybean stocks report today, together with an updated estimate of the US wheat crop. Ahead of the data, soybeans, corn and wheat on CBOT are trading slightly higher as traders adjust positions, while overall market activity remains cautious.

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 CBOT soybeans are slightly higher today, extending a cautious recovery for a second session after Monday’s sharp decline. Soybean meal and soybean oil are also gaining, although traders remain reluctant to build large positions ahead of the USDA report.

• 📑📊 Ahead of today’s USDA report, the average estimate for US soybean stocks as of September 1 stands at 324 million bushels, with expectations ranging from 304 to 349 million. Any significant deviation from this level could become the main short-term market driver after the release.

• 🇨🇳 The scope for additional private Chinese purchases of US soybeans remains limited. Crushers have largely covered requirements through the Chinese New Year with South American supplies and state reserves, while an additional 10% tariff and negative crush margins continue to reduce interest in US-origin beans.

• 🇨🇳 Soybean stocks at 111 Chinese crushing plants reached 7.96 MMT, the highest level in at least 15 years. High inventories, combined with expectations for weaker feed demand in the fourth quarter, further limit the need for new purchases.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Excessive rainfall and localized flooding in the US are creating a risk of further soybean harvest delays and restricting machinery access to fields. Drier weather is expected across much of the Midwest after this week, which should improve fieldwork conditions.

• 🚢🇮🇳 India’s soybean oil imports in 2026/27 could decline by 10.7% to 5 MMT. Following tariff reductions, sunflower oil has become more competitive, with imports expected to rise by around 30% to 3.5 MMT, signaling a shift in Indian demand away from soybean oil.

• 📉🌴 Palm oil ended September with its first monthly decline in four months, losing around 5%. High Malaysian stocks, weaker exports and seasonally strong production are adding further pressure to the vegetable oil complex.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly higher, but trading remains cautious ahead of the USDA report, while US harvest delays provide some short-term support. At the same time, historically high Chinese crusher stocks, weak private Chinese demand and expectations for lower Indian soybean oil imports continue to weigh on the market.

🌽 Corn

• 📈 CBOT corn is slightly higher today after the previous decline. The move remains modest and is largely driven by position adjustments ahead of the USDA quarterly stocks report.

• 📑📊 The average estimate for US corn stocks as of September 1 stands at 1.918 billion bushels. The market will also watch for a possible revision to the 2025 crop, which analysts estimate at 17.003 billion bushels versus the previous 17.021 billion, as well as changes in feed and residual use.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Heavy rainfall continues to create a risk of harvest delays in the western Corn Belt. The highest risk of localized flooding remains in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where heavy rain may continue through Thursday.

• 🚢🇪🇺 EU corn imports since the start of the season reached 4.96 MMT, up 35% y/y. Imports increased by around 490,000 t in the latest reporting week alone, confirming strong European import demand.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Disruptions to Ukrainian seaborne exports could increase demand for US corn in the fourth quarter as the new US crop becomes more available. For now, this remains a demand outlook rather than confirmed new export business.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine is discussing the possibility of giving oilseeds and processed products priority in export logistics. Grain industry representatives warn that such a measure could further restrict grain exports and increase domestic stocks, although no such rule has yet been implemented.

• 🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain exports in September have already fallen by more than 60%, tightening the availability of Black Sea grain on the international market.

Bottom line: Corn is slightly higher ahead of the USDA report. US harvest delays, strong EU import demand and constraints on Ukrainian exports provide support, while the near-term direction will depend heavily on the actual US stocks figure.

🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat is moderately higher today. CBOT futures are recovering from the previous decline as traders adjust positions ahead of USDA reports, while Euronext wheat is also trading higher. The move remains cautious ahead of key US data.

• 📑📊 The average estimate for US wheat stocks as of September 1 stands at 1.872 billion bushels. At the same time, the market expects USDA to revise all-wheat production to 1.524 billion bushels, down from the previous 1.531 billion.

• 🌦️🇮🇳 Weaker monsoon rainfall in India is raising concerns about soil moisture availability ahead of wheat planting in October-November.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Rainfall across the central and southern US Plains has a mixed impact on winter wheat. It is delaying planting in the wettest areas, but also easing drought and improving soil moisture conditions for the developing crop.

• 🚢🇪🇺 EU soft wheat exports since the start of the season through September 27 reached 6.81 MMT, up from 6.30 MMT a week earlier and remaining roughly in line with last year. Romania leads exports at 3.11 MMT, although incomplete data from France and several other countries limit the precision of the total.

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s domestic market remains under pressure from weak export logistics. Purchase prices for third-class milling wheat have fallen by almost 30% over the past two months, while possible logistics priority for oilseeds could further complicate grain sales.

Bottom line: Wheat is moderately recovering ahead of the USDA data. Expectations for a lower US crop estimate and steady European exports provide support, while improved moisture conditions in the US Plains and uncertainty around Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea exports continue to limit stronger gains.