Market Report 29.10.2026

🌍 General Market Overview

• 🛢️📉 Crude oil is trading slightly lower today after the previous session's sharp rally, weakening support for the biofuel and vegetable oil segments of agricultural markets. However, energy prices remain elevated, meaning the broader energy backdrop continues to provide some support for vegetable oils despite the current correction.

🫛 Soybean Complex

• 📉 CBOT soybeans continue to decline following another weak close yesterday. Large seasonal supplies from the US harvest, improving weather conditions in Brazil, and weakness in soybean oil are outweighing support from export demand.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Chinese demand continues to limit the downside. According to market estimates, China still needs to purchase approximately 30–35% of its stated 25 MMT commitment for the new US soybean crop. The possibility of renewed buying activity remains an important supportive factor.

• 📦🇨🇳 However, China is not facing an immediate shortage of soybeans. Sinograin sold only 172,240 t out of 512,000 t of imported soybeans offered at auction and plans another auction of 402,000 t on November 3. This allows Chinese crushers to remain selective rather than accelerate new import purchases.

• 🚢🇺🇸 USDA confirmed a separate sale of 120,000 t of US soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. New transactions confirm the presence of physical demand, although current buying has not been sufficient to reverse the direction of futures prices.

• 🚜🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting has reached 42.8%, compared with 34.8% last year and the 40.2% five-year average. In Mato Grosso, planting is already 75.8% complete. Returning rainfall across central Brazil is improving conditions for planting and early crop development, reducing near-term weather risk premium.

• 🇧🇷 CONAB currently projects Brazil's soybean production at a record 181.62 MMT. The prospect of another substantial South American crop remains one of the main factors limiting recovery potential in the US soybean market.

• 🏭🇧🇷 Domestic soybean processing continues to expand in Brazil. USDA FAS forecasts crush at approximately 65 MMT in 2026/27, while soybean oil production could reach 13.5 MMT. The planned increase in the biodiesel blending mandate to B16 supports domestic soybean oil demand and partially offsets pressure from record bean supplies.

• 🏭 Strong processing economics remain a supportive fundamental factor globally. Bunge reported improved profitability in its oilseed processing operations and increased refined soybean oil production. These results highlight resilient structural demand for soybeans despite weaker futures prices.

Bottom line: Soybeans remain under pressure from large US harvest supplies and improving prospects for record Brazilian production. Chinese purchases and strong processing demand are cushioning the decline, but neither has generated sufficient momentum for a sustained bullish reversal.

🌽 Corn

• 📉 CBOT corn is trading lower today following yesterday's recovery attempt. Large supplies of newly harvested US grain continue to weigh on prices, while stronger demand from the ethanol sector only partially offsets this pressure.

• 🏭🇺🇸 US ethanol production increased to 1.118 million barrels per day, the highest level since late July, while inventories declined to 24.523 million barrels. Higher production without a simultaneous build-up in fuel stocks indicates active corn consumption by processors and remains one of the key supportive factors for CBOT.

• 🇺🇸 Nevertheless, the large US harvest and continued arrival of new-crop grain maintain significant physical supply pressure. Current consumption is helping absorb part of the crop, but it has not yet been sufficient to reverse the weak short-term market structure.

• 🚢🇰🇷 South Korea's NOFI issued a tender to purchase up to 138,000 t of feed corn. The recent CBOT decline has improved the competitiveness of US origin, making Asian demand an important test of whether lower prices can stimulate additional physical sales.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Following the recent decline, US corn has become more competitive than Argentine and Brazilian origin in several key destinations. However, accumulated US export commitments currently represent only around 26.5% of USDA's annual forecast, compared with 30.6–46% at the same stage during the previous five seasons.

• 🚢🇪🇺 The European market is already showing stronger physical demand. EU corn imports since the start of the season have increased 35.7% to 7.11 MMT, with the US becoming the largest supplier at 3.19 MMT, accounting for approximately 45% of total imports. This demonstrates that lower US prices are already translating into stronger physical trade flows.

• 🇧🇷🇦🇷 South American weather conditions are not generating a significant risk premium. Rainfall in central Brazil is improving conditions ahead of the second corn crop, while soil moisture in Argentina remains adequate, although cooler temperatures are slowing early crop development.

Bottom line: Corn remains under moderate pressure from abundant US supplies despite stronger domestic ethanol use and improving export competitiveness. A more sustainable recovery will require further acceleration in physical sales to absorb the current harvest more quickly.

🌾 Wheat

• ➖ Wheat is trading quietly today after the previous session's sharp decline. The market is assessing whether a partial resumption of Russian grain shipments through the Sea of Azov and expanded alternative export routes could meaningfully increase available global supply.

• 🚢🇷🇺 According to industry reports, Russia has resumed issuing permits for grain vessels to leave the Sea of Azov through the Kerch Strait for the first time since July 10, with authorizations expected to remain available until November 15. Media reports indicate that at least one vessel has already passed through the strait, although Ukrainian authorities have not independently confirmed the resumption of shipments. Before traffic restrictions, the Azov basin accounted for approximately one-third of Russia's seaborne wheat exports, meaning even a partial reopening could improve Russian grain availability.

• 🚢🇷🇺 Russia is also expanding alternative export logistics. Grain shipments through the Arctic port of Murmansk have begun, while Baltic ports accounted for more than 60% of Russian seaborne grain exports in September. This highlights exporters' efforts to adapt to disruptions affecting traditional Black Sea routes.

• 🇷🇺 Russian shipments nevertheless remain below normal levels, while domestic grain availability is substantial. Approximately 135 MMT have reportedly been harvested against a projected total of 140 MMT. The possibility of gradually releasing these supplies onto export markets as logistics recover remains an important downside risk for prices.

• 🌍 Large upcoming supplies from the Southern Hemisphere are also weighing on the global market. Australia and Argentina have considerable new-crop production potential, with supplies expected to enter export channels during November–December, intensifying competition among exporters.

• 🚜🇦🇺 In Australia, rainfall continues to delay harvesting and increase the risk of quality deterioration. This could restrict near-term availability of high-quality milling wheat even if overall production remains substantial.

• 🌦️🇦🇷 Argentina's large crop potential is also accompanied by weather risks. Cool temperatures, excessive moisture, and earlier frost events could affect grain quality in some regions. Overall supplies may remain abundant, but the final milling quality of the crop has yet to be fully determined.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 In the US, forecast rainfall across the Plains is improving conditions for winter wheat development ahead of winter, reducing weather risk premium. Some areas still require additional moisture, but the overall outlook has become more favorable for the new crop.

Bottom line: Wheat is consolidating after a sharp decline as traders assess the actual scale of any recovery in Russian export availability. Potential Azov shipments, the development of alternative Russian logistics, and large Southern Hemisphere supplies remain bearish factors. However, ongoing military risks and uncertainty over crop quality are limiting the scope for another substantial selloff.