Market Report 29.07.2026

Subtitle: Agri Market Update — July 29, 2026

General market overview

• 🚢 Tensions in the Black Sea region remain elevated. New attacks targeted ports overnight, Ukraine struck a major Rosneft refinery, navigation routes in the Sea of Azov remain closed, and three Russian Black Sea ports restricted grain intake.

🌦️ Weather

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Beneficial rainfall is expected across the central Midwest over the next seven days, including Iowa and Illinois, as well as the eastern half of the Plains. Significantly cooler temperatures should move into the Midwest by the weekend. For August, a private forecaster expects a more active weather pattern across the Midwest and a drier, warmer regime in the Plains.

• 🌡️🇪🇺 Scattered rainfall is possible in eastern Europe, while hot and dry conditions are expected to persist across western growing regions.

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📉 CBOT soybeans are trading notably lower today and testing support following the previous upside breakout. The main pressure comes from improved US rainfall prospects and easing concerns about a potential yield reduction.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The improved US forecast arrived during a critical development period, with USDA reporting that pod setting has reached 39%. Beneficial Midwest rainfall reduces the risk that ending stocks may decline due to a downward yield revision.

• 🇨🇳 China plans to auction 500,000 t of soybeans harvested between 2022 and 2025 on Friday, potentially to create storage space for US arrivals. However, the market still lacks a clear signal of renewed aggressive Chinese buying.

• 🇧🇷🇦🇷 Brazilian soybean prices are rising, making US soybeans cheaper than Brazilian origin. However, Argentina remains the least expensive supplier, limiting the support US soybeans receive from improved export competitiveness.

• 🏭 Bunge exceeded earnings expectations, mainly due to strong processing volumes and favorable crush margins. This supports the fundamental outlook for processing but is not enough to offset today’s weather pressure and technical correction.

• 📑 Soybean open interest declined by slightly more than 11,000 contracts yesterday and continues to fall from last week’s highs. This indicates that some speculative positions are being liquidated following the previous rally.

• 📉 November soybeans are testing the gap created by last week’s breakout near 1,204¢/bu. Buyers still retain an advantage, but a close below $12.00/bu would shift the short-term technical structure in favor of sellers.

Bottom line: Soybeans are declining due to improved US rainfall prospects, lower yield-risk concerns and the absence of a clear signal of aggressive Chinese demand. The technical structure remains intact while November soybeans hold above $12.00, but a close below this level could open the way for a deeper correction.

🌽 Corn

• 📉 CBOT corn is trading slightly lower today under pressure from a more favorable US weather forecast, while MATIF corn is posting a modest gain.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Better rainfall prospects for Iowa, Illinois and the central Midwest, combined with cooler temperatures, are easing concerns after US crop conditions declined by 4 percentage points last week.

• 🌡️🇪🇺 Adverse weather across western Europe remains supportive for corn, as persistent heat and dryness continue to threaten production potential.

• ⛽🇺🇸 The market expects weekly US ethanol production at 1.093 million barrels per day, compared with 1.094 million barrels per day last week. Ethanol stocks are forecast at 24.447 million barrels, slightly below 24.481 million barrels a week earlier.

• 🛢️ Corn is currently ignoring the overnight rise in crude oil because US weather is the stronger pricing factor. A positive close despite the more favorable forecast would suggest that part of the weather-related pressure is already priced in.

• 📉 Fundamental support for corn remains in place, but the forecast may give the market a reason for a short-term pullback before another attempt to test last week’s highs.

Bottom line: CBOT corn is slightly lower as improved rainfall prospects and cooler US temperatures reduce crop-condition concerns. Meanwhile, heat and dryness in western Europe are supporting MATIF and maintaining the risk of a smaller EU corn crop.

🌾 Wheat

• 📈 CBOT wheat is trading slightly higher today, while MATIF wheat is also posting a modest gain. The deterioration of the Black Sea situation is providing support.

• 🚢 Black Sea disruption remains the main immediate supportive factor for wheat, while the key details regarding ports, navigation and logistics are covered in the general market overview.

• 🇺🇦 A Ukrainian agricultural association has warned that bankruptcies could become a serious problem due to slow exports and the accumulation of stocks at farm level. Excess domestic supply continues to pressure local prices.

• 🇪🇺 EU wheat exports in July are expected to be 61% lower y/y, while total EU production is estimated to decline by 8%. This could create more space for alternative exporters if their prices remain competitive.

• 🚢🇵🇰 Pakistan said it will import 1 MMT of wheat to strengthen food security, adding another source of demand to the global market.

• 📈 Wheat retains a supportive fundamental backdrop while Black Sea disruptions continue. This may limit the risk of a deep short-term decline, although the market may need a period of consolidation before another attempt to test last week’s highs.

Bottom line: Wheat is supported by renewed Black Sea escalation, restrictions at Russian ports, weaker EU exports and additional demand from Pakistan. Both CBOT and MATIF wheat are trading modestly higher.