Market Report 28.10.2026

Strong dollar and global supply pressure grain and oilseed markets

General market overview

💵 The strong US dollar ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision remains a negative external factor for American agricultural markets. A stronger currency reduces US export competitiveness and discourages international buyers.
🌍 Part of the geopolitical risk premium in grain markets continues to fade amid expectations of renewed negotiations over the war in Ukraine and discussions on Black Sea shipping security. However, no agreement has been reached to halt attacks or normalize grain flows.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are trading quietly with a slight downward bias following yesterday's decline. Ample nearby supplies, intensifying Brazilian competition, and a strong US dollar are preventing a sustained recovery.
🇧🇷 A sharp depreciation of the Brazilian real has accelerated farmer selling and made Brazilian soybeans more competitive globally. On October 26 alone, farmers sold around 800,000 t of old- and new-crop soybeans, approximately matching sales for the entire previous week.
🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean meal prices have also fallen sharply, intensifying competition with US-origin meal. This adds pressure to the meal market and weakens processing-related support for the broader US soybean complex.
🚢🇨🇳 China continues to actively contract US soybeans, purchasing approximately 16.6-17 MMT since early July for October-March delivery. This demand remains an important support factor for CBOT, although it has not been sufficient to reverse the weak short-term market tone.
📦🇨🇳 China's physical supply situation remains comfortable. Imported soybean and soybean meal inventories exceed both last year's levels and the three-year average, while Brazilian soybeans remain the cheapest option for Chinese buyers. This reduces the urgency of additional US purchases.
🇨🇳 At the latest Sinograin auction, only 172,240 t of the 512,000 t of imported soybeans offered were sold. Another 402,000 t are scheduled for auction on November 3. Weak reserve sales further indicate the absence of an acute domestic supply shortage.
🌦️🇧🇷 Weather risks are gradually increasing in central-western Brazil due to uneven rainfall. Early soybean crops are still developing normally thanks to accumulated soil moisture, but reserves are declining. More consistent rainfall will be needed soon to protect yield potential.
🚢🇮🇳 India imported a record 1.1 MMT of soybeans in the 2025/26 marketing year, compared with just 2,000 t in the previous season, driven by high domestic prices and strong crusher demand. Meanwhile, Indian soybean meal exports roughly halved to 1 MMT.
🚢🇧🇷 ANEC lowered its October Brazilian soybean export forecast to 6.15 MMT, down 350,000 t from its previous estimate. This slightly limits nearby Brazilian export availability but does not outweigh pressure from active farmer selling and a weaker real.

Bottom line: The soybean outlook remains weak as abundant physical supplies and increasingly aggressive Brazilian competition outweigh support from Chinese purchase commitments. A sustained recovery would require stronger demand growth or increasing weather risks in South America.

🌽 Corn

📈 CBOT corn is attempting a modest recovery following the previous decline. However, the move appears largely corrective as substantial supply pressure and the strong US dollar continue to weigh on fundamentals.
🇺🇸 A large US harvest and continued arrivals of new-crop corn remain the main fundamental sources of pressure. Abundant physical supplies during harvest are preventing even stronger demand signals from generating a sustained price recovery.
🚢🇨🇳 China's corn imports rose to 433,900 t in September, up 35.5% from August and nearly 7.7 times the year-earlier level. Argentina became the leading supplier, while Brazil also returned to the Chinese market.
🏭🇺🇸 US domestic demand is receiving additional long-term support from ADM's planned processing capacity expansion in Nebraska, equivalent to approximately 20 million bushels, or 508,000 t of corn annually. The project targets growing demand from biofuels and low-carbon fuels.
🚢🇧🇷 ANEC reduced its October Brazilian corn export forecast to 6.1 MMT, down from 6.87 MMT. Lower expected Brazilian availability on international markets slightly eases competitive pressure on US exporters.
🌍 South Africa raised its 2026 corn production estimate to a record 17.69 MMT, compared with 16.65 MMT last season. This adds to global supplies, although a planned 12.4% reduction in planted area for 2027 points to a contrasting outlook for the next season.
🌦️🇧🇷🇦🇷 South American weather conditions remain mixed. Southern Brazil is experiencing excessive moisture, while more northern areas remain relatively dry. In Argentina, cooler temperatures, frequent rainfall, and limited sunshine are slowing fieldwork.

Bottom line: Corn's current recovery attempt has not changed the fundamentally weak market structure. Large US supplies and substantial global production prospects remain the dominant forces. Stronger Chinese demand, expanding US processing capacity, and lower Brazilian export expectations provide only partial relief.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is trading lower again as part of the Black Sea risk premium fades and expectations of substantial Southern Hemisphere supplies outweigh support from new import tenders and weather-related production risks.
🌍🇷🇺 Russia is holding consultations with Turkey and other countries on potential mechanisms to improve grain shipping security. The discussions themselves are reducing part of the geopolitical premium. However, Moscow currently sees little prospect of restoring the previous Black Sea Grain Initiative, and no agreement to normalize grain flows has been reached.
🚢🇷🇺 The geographic reach of Russian grain exports has narrowed sharply. In October, shipments went to only 15 countries, compared with 29 a year earlier, while wheat exports to Turkey and Egypt declined significantly. Some volumes are being redirected to alternative destinations, including Georgia, helping Russia partially offset difficulties in traditional markets.
🌍 Large Southern Hemisphere supplies remain a major source of competition. Australia is heading toward one of its largest export seasons on record, while Argentina's wheat harvest is estimated at 23.4 MMT, increasing global export availability.
🌧️🇦🇺 Heavy rainfall in South Australia and Victoria has interrupted part of the harvest and increased grain quality risks. This could reduce the availability of milling wheat meeting required specifications, even though Australia's overall supply outlook remains substantial.
🌦️🇦🇷 In Argentina, prolonged rainfall, cool temperatures, limited sunshine, and late frosts are creating risks to crop quality and yields. Frost may have affected up to 15% of wheat crops in some areas, although the national production estimate remains unchanged.
🚢🇯🇴 Jordan issued a new tender to purchase up to 120,000 t of milling wheat for January-February 2027 shipment, following a 60,000 t purchase the previous day. This confirms continued physical import demand.
🚢🇧🇷 Brazil's wheat imports could rise to 9.5-10 MMT in 2027, potentially the highest level in approximately 30 years, due to a smaller domestic crop and quality problems. Argentina is expected to remain the main supplier, although production risks there may encourage Brazil to seek alternative origins.
🇮🇳 Wheat planting in India has started more slowly. As of October 23, only 11,000 hectares had been planted, compared with 27,000 hectares a year earlier, amid weaker monsoon rainfall and lower irrigation water availability. The season is still in its early stages, making this a factor to monitor rather than a driver of today's market movement.

Bottom line: Wheat remains under pressure from intensifying competition as Southern Hemisphere harvest supplies enter the market and the Black Sea risk premium gradually declines. Weather problems in Australia and Argentina, together with active import demand, are helping limit losses but have not yet provided enough support to reverse the market's downward trend.