Market Report 28.09.2026

China tariff relief excludes soybeans as strong dollar and Black Sea hopes pressure ag markets

General market overview

🇨🇳 China has released a list of US agricultural products eligible for tariff relief. It includes corn, wheat, soybean meal and soybean oil, but excludes whole soybeans. The timing and final implementation details have not yet been specified.
💵🇺🇸 The US dollar remains strong, limiting the competitiveness of US agricultural exports.
🚢 Expectations for a possible improvement in Black Sea shipping continue to remove part of the geopolitical premium from grain markets. However, actual logistics remain difficult due to attacks, infrastructure damage and restricted export flows.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are leading losses across major agricultural contracts today, falling by around 25 cents/bu, while soybean meal and soybean oil are also lower. The main disappointment is the exclusion of whole soybeans from China’s tariff relief list.
🇨🇳 China’s additional 10% tariff on US soybeans remains in place. For private Chinese crushers, the duty continues to significantly weaken the competitiveness of US beans, unwinding part of the optimism built ahead of the summit.
🇨🇳 Soybean meal and soybean oil are included in the list for tariff relief, although the new terms have not yet taken effect. For soybeans themselves, only a narrow category covering seed for planting is included, not the main flow of beans imported for crushing.
🚢🇨🇳 Chinese state buyers Sinograin and COFCO have already purchased more than 12 Mt of US soybeans. The White House has said China committed to buying 25 Mt annually through 2028, although China has not publicly confirmed that target.
🌱🇺🇸 The cash soybean market in the western Midwest remains significantly stronger than futures. Harvest delays are restricting nearby availability for crushers, forcing plants to raise basis bids for prompt delivery, while some facilities are reducing operations due to limited supplies.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s soybean planting reached 3.4% of the projected area, up from 1.2% a week earlier and 3.2% last year. Paraná remains the leader, while uneven rainfall in Mato Grosso continues to limit fieldwork.
🇧🇷 Pátria Agronegócios estimates Brazil’s new soybean crop at 173.75 Mt, down 3.3% from the previous season. The estimate remains an important early benchmark as the new planting cycle develops.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s soybean stocks stood at 363.5 kt on September 1, down 8.4% y/y. Unlike wheat and corn, soybean beginning stocks entered the new season below last year’s level.

Bottom line: Soybeans are sharply lower after whole beans were excluded from China’s tariff relief list. Strong US crusher demand, purchases by Chinese state companies and a lower Brazilian crop estimate provide some support, but the continued 10% Chinese tariff remains the key bearish factor.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn is slightly lower today after Friday’s recovery and remains near the bottom of its recent trading range. Weakness in soybeans and the absence of confirmed large new Chinese purchases are adding pressure.
🇨🇳 US corn is included in China’s list of products eligible for tariff relief. However, the timing and specific terms remain unclear, and the announcement alone has not yet generated sustained import demand.
🌧️🇺🇸 Excess moisture continues to delay harvesting in the western Corn Belt. A drier outlook for early October, however, could accelerate fieldwork and increase new-crop arrivals.
🚜🇧🇷 First-crop corn planting in Brazil’s Center-South reached 34%, up from 27% a week earlier and 32% last year. This refers to summer corn, while the much larger second crop will be planted after soybeans.
🚢🇦🇷 Argentine farmers have sold more than 1 Mt of corn per week for four consecutive weeks. Strong farmer selling is supporting export availability and increasing competition for other suppliers.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s corn stocks stood at 2.8 Mt on September 1, around 2.1 times last year’s level. Large carry-in stocks will add to new-crop supply, although their availability to international buyers will depend heavily on export logistics.

Bottom line: Corn is slightly lower and remains near the bottom of its recent range. Potential Chinese tariff relief and US harvest delays provide support, while faster new-crop arrivals, active Argentine selling and large Ukrainian stocks are limiting the recovery.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is moderately lower again today. Friday’s recovery from intraday lows did not change the broader weak structure, while expectations for improved Black Sea shipping, soft US export demand and better moisture prospects for winter wheat continue to weigh on prices.
🇨🇳 US wheat is included in China’s list of products eligible for tariff relief. This could improve access to the Chinese market, but without confirmed large purchases it has not yet changed overall market sentiment.
🚢🇷🇺 Russian wheat exports in September are estimated at around 2.3 Mt, well below a more typical September pace. Low actual shipments support the physical market, while expectations for a possible recovery continue to pressure futures.
🚢🇵🇰 Pakistan received offers in a tender to buy 185 kt of wheat. The lowest known offer was $339.36/t C&F for around 60 kt, but no purchase had been confirmed at the time of reporting.
🚢🇫🇷 Around 60 kt of French wheat is heading to Yemen, the first such shipment in about four years. Disruptions to Black Sea supply are creating additional opportunities for alternative exporters.
🌧️🇺🇸 Significant rainfall is expected across Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Better soil moisture should support winter wheat planting and establishment, reducing weather support for prices, although locally heavy rain may temporarily slow fieldwork.
🇺🇦 Ukraine’s wheat stocks stood at 14.6 Mt on September 1, up 31.6% y/y. Large physical inventories increase potential supply, but access to export markets remains dependent on logistics.

Bottom line: Wheat remains under pressure from expectations of improved Black Sea shipping, soft US demand and more favorable US weather. At the same time, very low Russian shipments, fresh import demand and ongoing logistics problems are limiting the potential for a deeper decline.