Market Report 28.07.2026

Improved US Weather And Weaker Energy Markets Pressure Agricultural Commodities

General market overview

🛢️ The energy complex continues to decline, directly pressuring soybean oil and partially weakening support for corn through the ethanol channel.
🚢 Black Sea risk remains relevant. SovEcon considers a rapid return of Black Sea shipping to normal operations unlikely, as Russia and Ukraine continue to maintain firm positions.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 The US forecast has improved for the central Midwest. Following severe storms around Chicago, additional rainfall chances are expected across the heart of the Midwest and the eastern crop belt over the next five days. Rainfall in the western belt is expected to remain more scattered.
🌡️🇪🇺 Hot and dry conditions persist across the western EU and, according to LSEG, may continue into next month. This maintains stress on EU corn and wheat crops.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 The soybean complex remains under pressure, with soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal trading lower on CBOT. The main pressure comes from the continued decline in energy markets and improved rainfall prospects in the US.
🛢️ Soybean oil is facing direct pressure from weaker crude oil. This continues to pull the entire soybean complex lower following the sharp decline in the previous session.
🌦️🇺🇸 Improved rainfall prospects in the central Midwest have arrived during a critical development period. USDA reported that 39% of the crop has reached the pod-setting stage. Last week’s speculative buying rally was partly driven by lower yield expectations, but those concerns have now eased.
🇺🇸 US soybean conditions declined by 3 percentage points to 63% good/excellent, compared with 70% a year ago. Conditions improved in the Delta and Missouri, while most states across the Midwest and Plains recorded deterioration.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections for the week ended July 23 totaled 348,850 t. Cumulative inspections reached 38.986 MMT, down 17.5% y/y, but already equal to 94.2% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 92.4% five-year average.
🇨🇳 Additional pressure came after China condemned the new tariffs announced by President Trump. However, the Chinese leader’s planned visit in late September does not currently appear to be at risk.
📑 Open interest declined sharply across the soybean complex, including a reduction of almost 30,000 contracts in soybeans. This indicates position liquidation following last week’s strong speculative buying interest.
📉 November soybeans are testing the previous breakout zone after last week’s upside gap. The area around $12.00/bu needs to hold on a closing basis; otherwise, the risk of a deeper decline will increase.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains under pressure from weaker crude oil, improved US rainfall prospects, and position liquidation following strong speculative buying. More than half of the crop still has to pass through the pod-setting stage, but without USDA lowering its yield estimate below 53 bpa or stronger Chinese demand, building a sustainably bullish soybean balance will remain difficult.

🌽 Corn

📈 CBOT corn is trading slightly higher following a larger-than-expected deterioration in US crop conditions. MATIF corn is moving lower.
🇺🇸 US corn conditions declined by 4 percentage points to 63% good/excellent, compared with 73% a year ago. The market had mostly expected a decline of only 1–3 points. Conditions deteriorated across most major producing states, with Missouri the only large producer to report improvement.
🌦️🇺🇸 Despite the decline in crop ratings, the forecast does not show the return of an extreme heat dome over the Midwest during the next two weeks. Parts of the western belt will remain significantly warmer than normal, but overall US weather risk should gradually decline in August after pollination is completed.
🇪🇺 The European outlook remains supportive. MARS lowered its EU corn yield estimate by 6% from the previous forecast and reduced the outlook for France by 13%. LSEG expects hot and dry conditions in the western EU to persist into next month.
🇺🇸 Lower EU corn production could become an important driver of demand for US corn later this year. This supports the fundamental outlook even as the market undergoes a short-term correction.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s corn harvest is 60% complete, but periods of rainfall are slowing progress in central-western regions. This partially limits pressure from South American supply.
📑 Fund selling was substantial yesterday and was estimated at around 23,000 contracts, while open interest declined by 14,000 contracts. This confirms the liquidation of part of the long position accumulated during the previous rally.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections for the week ended July 23 totaled 1.488 MMT. Cumulative inspections reached 75.324 MMT, up 24.8% y/y and equal to 89.2% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 81.1% five-year average.
📉 The first important technical test for December corn remains last Sunday’s gap near 468. Fundamental support remains in place, but the depth of the current correction has not yet been determined.

Bottom line: CBOT corn is receiving moderate support from the sharp deterioration in US crop conditions, but the absence of renewed extreme heat in the forecast limits upside potential. A weaker EU crop, strong US export inspections, and harvest delays in Brazil support the fundamental outlook, while MATIF remains under pressure today.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is declining on both CBOT and MATIF as the broader commodity selloff continues to pressure the market. However, the current pullback still looks more like a correction than the beginning of a new bearish trend.
🌍 Wheat fundamentals remain supported by the Black Sea conflict, lower EU yield estimates, and the historically weak US winter wheat crop. These factors reduce the risk of a deeper selloff.
🇪🇺 MARS lowered its EU soft wheat yield forecast by 2% from the previous estimate, while production is expected to decline by 8%. Lower EU wheat exports this year could create an additional export opportunity for the US if American prices become competitive.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat harvest reached 81%, above the 79% average and 2 percentage points ahead of last year. Harvesting in Kansas and Oklahoma is effectively complete. Spring wheat harvest is only 2% complete, one point ahead of last year. Spring wheat conditions remained unchanged at 53% good/excellent, which is 4 points below the 10-year average.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections for the week ended July 23 totaled 394,785 t. Cumulative inspections reached 2.543 MMT, down 23.2% y/y and equal to 12.1% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 13.2% five-year average.
📉 Yesterday’s weak close near the lower end of the trading range increased short-term pressure, but the pullback has not yet reached key support. Without normalization of Black Sea logistics, the risk of a deeper decline remains limited.

Bottom line: Wheat is declining under pressure from the broader commodity selloff, but fundamental support from the Black Sea, lower EU yield estimates, and the weak US winter wheat crop reduces the risk of a major decline.