Market Report 27.07.2026

Improved US Weather Triggers A Broad Selloff, While Black Sea Risks Limit Wheat Losses

General market overview

🛢️ Crude oil is falling sharply after a temporary pause in the US military campaign against Iran reduced the geopolitical premium across energy markets. Soybean oil is facing the strongest direct pressure.
🚢 Black Sea risks for grains have not disappeared. Russia continued attacking Ukrainian ports over the weekend, although the market is also reacting to discussions about a possible new Black Sea export corridor.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 US weather models have improved the chances of scattered rainfall across the central Plains, central Midwest and eastern soybean belt. In the 6–14-day outlook, the highest temperatures are shifting toward the southwestern US, reducing part of the weather risk for corn and soybeans.
🌡️🇪🇺 Europe is expected to face another heatwave this week, particularly in France, Germany and Spain. This maintains stress for EU corn and oilseed crops.
🌡️🇺🇦 Heat is also expected to intensify in Ukraine next week.
🌧️🇮🇳 India’s cumulative monsoon rainfall during the June–September season remains 16% below normal.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 The soybean complex is falling sharply. Soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal are trading lower on CBOT after a weak overnight start and a further increase in selling pressure during the morning. The main drivers are improved US rainfall prospects, sharply lower crude oil and profit-taking after strong speculative buying last week.
🌦️🇺🇸 The main bearish factor for soybeans is the improved rainfall forecast for the central Plains, central Midwest and eastern soybean belt. The shift of the most intense heat toward the southwestern US is removing part of the weather premium.
🛢️ Soybean oil is facing additional heavy pressure from the decline in crude oil after the geopolitical premium in energy markets weakened. This is intensifying losses across the entire soybean complex.
📑 COT data showed that funds were substantial buyers across the soybean complex through the middle of last week. Today’s sharp reversal has left many recently established long positions under pressure and may accelerate liquidation.
🇪🇺 European oilseeds remain exposed to weather risk as another heatwave develops this week. Expana estimated the EU soybean crop 8.1% below last year.
🇨🇳 The key question is whether China will use the sharp price decline to make new purchases. If buying emerges, the pullback may prove short-lived. Without Chinese demand, weakness could deepen.
📉 After strong speculative buying last week, the current move may target the open upside gap near 1,204 cents/bu in November soybeans. Today’s close will be an important signal for the potential depth of the correction.
📑 Soybean COT: In the week ended July 21, Managed Money increased its net long position by 52,212 contracts to 124,900 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders bought 57,130 contracts, bringing their net long position to 127,600 contracts.
📑 Soybean meal COT: Managed Money bought 27,300 contracts, increasing its net long position to 75,152 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders increased their net long position by 26,530 contracts to 127,646 contracts.
📑 Soybean oil COT: Managed Money added 12,319 contracts to its existing long position, bringing the net long to 125,348 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders added 11,270 contracts, increasing their net long position to 142,416 contracts.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is falling sharply as improved US rainfall forecasts, lower crude oil and vulnerability following aggressive fund buying drive liquidation. Risks in the EU and India remain, but the short-term direction depends on US weather, China’s response and whether prices can recover before the session closes.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn is falling sharply on both CBOT and MATIF after strong buying last week. Improved US rainfall prospects, a steep decline in energy prices and the risk of liquidation in newly established long positions are driving the pressure.
🌦️🇺🇸 Weather models increased the chances of rainfall across the central Plains and Midwest later this week. In the 6–14-day outlook, the area of below-normal precipitation shifts toward the northwestern US, while the most intense heat moves into the Southwest.
🛢️ Sharply lower energy prices following the pause in the US military campaign against Iran are adding pressure through the ethanol channel. This is intensifying the correction after last week’s aggressive speculative buying.
📑 COT data showed that Managed Money bought almost 50,000 corn contracts, increasing its net long position to nearly 93,000 contracts. If today’s weakness continues into the close, many of these new long positions will quickly move into negative territory.
🌡️🇪🇺 The EU continues to provide a supportive factor as France, Germany and Spain enter another heatwave. Lower expected EU corn production could support demand for US corn exports during the second half of the year.
🌡️🇺🇦 Heat is also expected in Ukraine next week, maintaining production risk for corn.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s corn harvest is 59% complete. This is adding South American supply and remains a limiting factor for the market.
📉 Localized areas of corn stress remain across the US Midwest and Plains, but the overall forecast has improved enough to stabilize yield expectations. This may keep prices under pressure over the next several sessions.
📑 Corn COT: In the week ended July 21, Managed Money increased its net long position by 49,518 contracts to 92,909 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders increased their net long position by 52,097 contracts to 81,746 contracts.

Bottom line: Corn is falling sharply on CBOT and MATIF due to improved US rainfall forecasts, lower energy prices and pressure on newly established fund longs. However, heat in the EU and Ukraine prevents the complete removal of weather premium, while a smaller EU crop could support US corn demand later in the season.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is trading moderately lower, but losses remain much more limited than in soybeans and corn. MATIF wheat is showing increased volatility.
📉 Pressure is coming from broader agricultural market weakness, a lower geopolitical premium following the pause in the US military campaign against Iran, higher Australian production estimates and discussions about a possible new Black Sea export corridor.
🚢 Black Sea risk remains significant. Russia continued attacking Ukrainian ports over the weekend, and there are no indications that strikes on infrastructure and vessels are about to stop. This is limiting the potential for a deeper decline in wheat prices.
🇷🇺 IKAR lowered its estimate for Russia’s new wheat crop to 90 MMT, compared with 91.5 MMT last month. The export forecast was also reduced to 44.5 MMT, from 47.51 MMT, due to shipment difficulties.
🇦🇺 Higher estimates for Australian wheat production are adding pressure to the global balance. This is one of the factors limiting wheat today alongside broader weakness across agricultural markets.
📉 Unlike soybeans and corn, wheat remains within Friday’s broad trading range. The market may have limited room for a substantial extension lower while attacks on Black Sea infrastructure continue.
📑 Chicago wheat COT: In the week ended July 21, Managed Money reduced its short position by 17,449 contracts, but remained net short by 19,349 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders bought 5,252 contracts and now hold a net short position of 19,130 contracts.
📑 Kansas City wheat COT: Managed Money bought 12,450 contracts, increasing its net long position to 29,944 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a net long position of 12,884 contracts after buying 11,543 contracts.

Bottom line: Wheat is declining alongside the broader agricultural market, but losses remain limited by continuing Black Sea risks and lower estimates for Russian production and exports. CBOT is weakening moderately, while MATIF remains volatile.