Market Report 26.10.2026

Soybeans and corn face renewed pressure as Brazil’s currency weakens and global supply expands

General market overview

🛢️📉 Crude oil is correcting slightly today after last week’s sharp rally amid renewed diplomatic contacts concerning Iran. The weaker energy backdrop is reducing support for the biofuel-related segment of agricultural markets, particularly vegetable oils.
🌍 Part of the geopolitical risk premium continues to fade amid expectations of renewed negotiations over the war in Ukraine. Markets are considering the possibility of discussions on maritime and energy-related ceasefires, although no agreements have been reached to halt attacks or fully normalize shipping.
🇧🇷 The weakening of the Brazilian real following the unexpected presidential election outcome is making export sales more attractive for local farmers and improving the competitiveness of Brazilian agricultural products. This currency factor is creating additional pressure on global soybean and corn markets.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are declining sharply today after two sessions of recovery. Increased selling pressure from Brazil, weakness in soybean oil and meal, and abundant physical supplies are weighing heavily on futures.
🇺🇸 The arrival of the US soybean harvest remains a major fundamental bearish factor. Seasonal supplies are expanding rapidly, while even active export demand has so far been insufficient to absorb available volumes and support a sustainable price recovery.
📉 Weakness extends across the entire soybean complex, with beans, meal, and soybean oil all trading lower. Today's crude oil correction is adding pressure to soybean oil, while weaker meal prices are reinforcing the broader decline.
🚢🇨🇳 Chinese purchases remain an important source of support for US soybeans and helped limit last week's losses. However, current demand is insufficient to offset the seasonal increase in supply and prevent today's decline.
🇨🇳 China's planned October 27 soybean auction from state reserves will provide domestic processors with an additional source of raw material. This could partially reduce their need for new imports in the near term.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazil's soybean planting has accelerated to 40% complete, compared with 26% a week earlier and 36% last year. In Mato Grosso, planting has reached 75.81%. Rapid progress improves prospects for timely soybean production and creates more favorable conditions for subsequent second-crop corn planting.
🇧🇷 Buyers in Brazil's physical soybean market remain cautious. Many consumers have already secured supplies for the short and medium term and are postponing major purchases until the new harvest arrives. Weakening export parity is adding further pressure to the domestic market.
🏭🇧🇷 Brazilian domestic demand for soybean products has also softened. Some consumers built meal inventories in September, while local crushers report declining sales of soybean meal and oil. This is temporarily reducing their need for additional soybean purchases.

Bottom line: Soybeans are falling sharply as abundant US seasonal supplies and rapid Brazilian planting outweigh support from Chinese purchases. A weaker Brazilian real and declining soybean product prices are adding further pressure to the market.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn continues to decline, reaching multi-month lows. The large US harvest and active deliveries of new-crop grain remain the main sources of pressure, while stronger international competition is making a sustainable recovery more difficult.
🇺🇸 The continued arrival of substantial US corn supplies during harvest is outweighing support from selected strong demand channels. High physical availability is preventing the market from establishing a sustained upward trend.
🚜🇧🇷 Planting of Brazil's first corn crop in the center-south has accelerated to 58% complete, compared with 48% a week earlier and 55% last year. This supports future supply prospects, although the figures refer specifically to the first crop rather than the larger second-crop corn harvest.
🇧🇷 Rapid soybean planting, particularly in Mato Grosso, is also improving prospects for timely second-crop corn planting after the soybean harvest. This is important for future supplies, as the second corn crop accounts for the majority of Brazil's corn export potential.
🇧🇷 Brazil's physical corn market remains well supplied, with producers increasingly willing to accept lower prices. Cautious buying activity and favorable planting progress are adding further pressure to nearby prices.
🚢🇲🇽 Mexican demand remains an important source of support for US corn. During January–September, Mexican corn imports increased 5.8% y/y to 19.46 MMT, with the United States supplying nearly all yellow and cracked corn imports.
🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall in parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, and South Dakota could cause localized harvest delays. However, conditions across the eastern Corn Belt remain favorable, leaving the broader picture of substantial grain arrivals largely unchanged.

Bottom line: Corn remains under pressure from abundant supplies as the US harvest continues and prospects for future Brazilian production improve. Strong Mexican demand provides support, but it is currently insufficient to offset heavy seasonal selling pressure.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is trading slightly lower today but showing greater resilience than soybeans and corn. Expectations of new Southern Hemisphere supplies and subdued import demand are weighing on prices, while physical supply risks are limiting deeper losses.
🌍 Competition in the global wheat market is intensifying as the Southern Hemisphere harvest approaches, particularly in Argentina. Greater availability of alternative origins allows importers to remain cautious and reduces the urgency of aggressive stockbuilding.
🇷🇺 Russia continues to expand alternative grain export channels beyond traditional Black Sea routes, increasing its flexibility in serving international markets.
🌧️🇦🇺 Widespread rainfall has interrupted harvesting in parts of South Australia, Victoria, and New South Wales. Excessive moisture poses grain quality risks, although cooler and wetter conditions may benefit the final grain-filling stages in later-developing areas.
🚢🇧🇷 Brazil's wheat import outlook remains strong. One industry estimate projects imports of 9.5–10 MMT in 2027, reflecting lower domestic production and shortages of high-quality milling wheat. Argentina remains the main potential supplier.
🇮🇳 India has reduced the volume of government wheat offered at its October 28 auction to 101,000 t. Flour millers report tight availability in the open market, although there has been no confirmed move toward additional wheat imports.

Bottom line: Wheat is declining amid stronger competition among exporters, the approaching Southern Hemisphere harvest, and a partial easing of geopolitical risk premiums. However, weather-related disruptions in Australia and prospects for strong Brazilian import demand are helping to limit the downside.