Market Report 26.08.2026

Black Sea disruptions, US crop risks and Chinese demand keep grain and oilseed markets supported

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea risk has intensified again after a new wave of mutual attacks. Ukraine struck a major Russian refinery in the Volga region and grain terminals in Novorossiysk, where shipment disruptions and repair work could reportedly last up to 4 months.
🚢 Logistics pressure in the region remains elevated. Around 70 vessels are reportedly waiting near access to Ukrainian ports through the Danube channel to load grain, increasing the risk of delays in regional shipments.
🚢 Prolonged export disruptions in Ukraine could affect farmers’ planting decisions for the new season. According to Kernel, planted area could decline by 20% if export problems persist, adding medium-term pressure to the regional grain balance.
🌍 El Niño risks and higher input costs in South America remain important for the new season. Lower fertilizer supplies in Brazil and a potential $2 billion subsidy program highlight the risk of pressure on producer margins.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 Soybeans are testing this month’s highs as China continues to seek offers for US soybeans for autumn shipment. The US decision not to extend Iranian sanctions to China is also reducing risk around the trade dialogue.
🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains the main supportive factor. SinoGrain sold 77% of the reserve soybeans offered yesterday, while buyers appear to be using small price pullbacks to continue purchasing US soybeans.
🇧🇷 El Niño risks in South America are supporting the market as Brazil’s new soybean crop is only approaching the autumn planting period. AgroConsult expects Brazilian soybean area to remain stable at 49.2 million hectares, but weather uncertainty and higher input costs may squeeze farmer margins.
🇧🇷 Lower fertilizer availability could add another risk for Brazil’s new season. Fertilizer imports and domestic production are expected to fall 7% y/y, while Mosaic is working with the government on a potential $2 billion subsidy program to limit costs for farmers.
📊🇺🇸 Dr. Cordonnier left his US soybean yield estimate unchanged at 51.5 bpa, below USDA’s 52.7 bpa. This keeps doubts around the official yield outlook alive despite stronger final results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour.
🌦️🇺🇸 A potentially cooler pattern across the Midwest through mid-September is increasing attention to early frost risk while the soybean crop still needs to complete its final development stage. This limits sellers’ control after Monday’s selloff.
🏭 Soybean meal continues to strengthen and is approaching its highest level of the year as US prices remain competitive. Soybean oil, however, is weakening again after testing 1.5-month lows, limiting broader gains across the complex.
📈 Yesterday’s upside reversal in November soybeans was a positive technical signal after Monday’s selloff. With China continuing to buy on dips, aggressive sellers are likely to remain cautious.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is supported by active Chinese interest, El Niño risks in South America, Dr. Cordonnier’s lower US yield estimate, and potential early frost risk in the US. Weak soybean oil is limiting gains, but yesterday’s technical reversal has shifted the near-term advantage back toward buyers.

🌽 Corn

📈 Corn continues to advance and has reached another new contract high, with fundamental and technical factors still aligned on the bullish side. Following the Crop Tour results, the market is increasingly pricing in the risk of a tighter US balance.
📊🇺🇸 Dr. Cordonnier cut his US corn yield estimate by 1 bpa to 179 bpa. Any additional production risk is now being treated as bullish because ending stocks are already expected to tighten.
🌦️🇺🇸 Longer-range LSEG forecasts added another production risk. A significantly cooler pattern is expected across the Midwest in September, increasing the probability of early frost. This matters for corn because part of the crop still needs time to complete development.
🌎 El Niño risks are also supporting corn, as South America needs a strong crop this season against the backdrop of weak EU production and lower US crop potential than the market expected a month ago.
📑 Fund buying remains strong. Managed Money net length in corn is estimated at around 325,000 contracts, up by more than 70,000 contracts over the past 5 sessions. The strong technical structure is giving funds little reason to exit positions aggressively.
📈 Both fundamentals and technical momentum continue to point toward further upside potential. Expectations for lower US ending stocks keep buyers in control.

Bottom line: Corn remains one of the strongest markets in the grain complex, supported by lower US yield estimates, early frost risk, expectations for tighter stocks, aggressive fund buying, and Black Sea logistics tension. As long as fundamentals and technicals remain aligned, the path of least resistance stays higher.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat is rising sharply after a new wave of attacks between Russia and Ukraine, including a strike on Novorossiysk, where grain terminal shipment disruptions and repairs could reportedly last up to 4 months. This has sharply increased risk around Black Sea supply.
🚢 The Black Sea factor has again become a direct bullish driver. Damage in Novorossiysk, new attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and the vessel queue near access to Ukrainian ports are increasing concerns about the stability of regional exports.
🚢🇷🇺 Weak domestic prices in Russia may also discourage farmers from expanding planted area without substantial government support. This adds a medium-term risk to Black Sea wheat supply.
🌾🇺🇸 The outlook for HRS has become less favorable, with less rainfall expected across the northern Plains next week. In western Kansas, rainfall totals are expected to remain mostly below 0.75 inch, while the southern Plains need substantially more moisture to rebuild reserves ahead of autumn planting.
📈 December Chicago wheat reached a new monthly high today, while the fundamental picture is becoming more bullish. Under these conditions, the path of least resistance remains higher.

Bottom line: Wheat is receiving strong support from the attacks on Novorossiysk, the risk of prolonged grain terminal disruptions, vessel congestion near Ukrainian ports, the possibility of lower planted area in Ukraine, and dry conditions in the US and Black Sea region. As long as export risks remain elevated, buyers retain a clear advantage.