Market Report 25.09.2026

US–China Disappointment Weighs on Markets as Harvest Pressure and a Stronger Dollar Build

General market overview

🇨🇳🇺🇸 Initial results from the US–China summit brought little of the additional agricultural purchase detail the market had hoped for. The two sides extended their trade truce, while key questions around Chinese purchases remain unresolved. Markets will now watch for further details, but part of the pre-summit premium is already beginning to fade.
🚢 Prospects for renewed discussions on Black Sea shipping security are adding pressure to grain markets. Ukraine says India, Turkey, Egypt and Middle Eastern countries are involved in discussions over the security of agricultural shipments, while Turkey has also called for steps to improve navigational safety in the Black Sea.
💵🇺🇸 The US dollar continues to strengthen, adding another headwind for the competitiveness of US agricultural exports.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are trading lower after the US–China summit failed to deliver significant new purchase commitments so far. The market increasingly sees a risk that the outcome may amount largely to confirmation of China’s existing 25 MMT annual soybean commitment, rather than additional demand. Reuters reported that Beijing is currently on track to meet that commitment.
🇨🇳 There are still no signs that China’s 10% retaliatory tariff on US soybeans will be removed. Without additional purchases or tariff relief, some of the optimism accumulated before the summit could continue to leave the market.
🌱🇺🇸 The physical market in the western Midwest remains tight. Harvest delays are leaving some crushers short of nearby soybean supplies, forcing plants to reduce processing or temporarily idle capacity and supporting prompt bids.
🌧️🇺🇸 Significant harvest delays may persist into at least the second half of next week. Very heavy rainfall is forecast across Iowa, eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and northern Missouri, with localized totals of 2–5 inches.
🌦️🇺🇸 The share of US soybeans in drought declined by 1 percentage point this week and could fall further after the expected rains. In the 6–10 day outlook, above-normal precipitation shifts toward the eastern belt, while chances in the west move closer to normal.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US soybean export sales totaled 582,400 t, below expectations. However, cumulative sales have already reached 46.9% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 37.1% five-year average, keeping the overall seasonal pace strong.
🚢🇺🇸 Soybean meal sales totaled 306,700 t across the current and next marketing years, while the cumulative pace remains slightly below the five-year average. Soybean oil sales were only 1,700 t, although the cumulative pace remains ahead of the normal level for this point in the season.
📉 November soybeans are still holding above the monthly low near 1,290 cents/bu. A break below that level would increase technical pressure, while harvest delays are currently helping offset part of the negative reaction to the summit.

Bottom line: Soybeans are lower as the summit has so far delivered no meaningful increase in Chinese purchase commitments and weekly export sales disappointed. Harvest delays and tight physical supplies in the western Midwest are limiting the downside, but without fresh positive signals from US–China talks, a sustained recovery will be harder to achieve.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn has set a new monthly low and broken below the range that had held for the past three weeks. The lack of China-related demand news, weaker export sales and increasing harvest pressure have damaged the short-term technical structure.
🇨🇳 No concrete indication emerged from the summit that US corn will be included in additional Chinese purchases. Reuters noted ahead of the talks that China had yet to purchase US corn for the current season. Further details may still emerge, but expectations for a major positive demand surprise are fading.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales totaled 840,900 t, below expectations. Cumulative sales stand at 21.9% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 28.2% five-year average. To reach the USDA projection, sales now need to average around 1.307 MMT per week.
🌧️🇺🇸 Significant harvest delays are expected over the next week across eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and eastern Kansas. The eastern Corn Belt should remain drier initially, although the 6–10 day outlook shifts above-normal precipitation into central and eastern areas.
🌽🇫🇷 France’s corn harvest has advanced to 45%, compared with 13% last year and an 11% average. The exceptionally fast pace highlights the weakness of a crop being harvested much earlier than usual.
🇪🇺 Drought remains an issue across Europe, while very low Rhine water levels in Germany are complicating river transportation and adding logistics risk to the European grain market.
📑 The break below the lower end of the monthly range has weakened the short-term technical picture. If prices fail to recover before the close, the funds’ near-record net long position could increase the risk of partial liquidation.

Bottom line: Corn is lower and has broken below its previous sideways range. The absence of concrete Chinese demand and weaker export sales are weighing on the market, while harvest delays, the weak French crop and European logistics problems continue to provide underlying support.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat losses are accelerating. Pressure is increasing from a significantly wetter outlook for the southern US Plains, weaker export sales and growing expectations that talks over Black Sea shipping security could resume.
🌧️🇺🇸 Rain prospects across the southern half of the Plains have improved substantially for the next 10 days. Moisture associated with the remnants of tropical system Polo could reach the region next week, offering some drought-affected areas their best rainfall opportunity in months.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US wheat export sales totaled 267,600 t, below expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 44.4% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 49.8% five-year average.
📉 Softer US sales may partly reflect importer caution as buyers assess whether improved Black Sea shipping security could restore more reliable access to competitively priced regional wheat.
🚢 Renewed diplomatic attention to Black Sea navigational safety is adding another bearish headline risk. Turkey said this week that steps were needed to improve commercial shipping safety in the region.
📉 Sellers retain a clear short-term advantage and the technical trend remains lower. Stabilization will likely require either a fresh fundamental catalyst or evidence that the market is beginning to form a technical bottom.

Bottom line: Wheat is extending its decline under pressure from a much wetter southern Plains forecast, weaker US export sales and expectations surrounding renewed Black Sea shipping discussions. Together, these factors keep the short-term market direction pointed lower.