Market Report 25.08.2026

Corn Holds Firm As Soybeans Correct And Wheat Balances Black Sea Risks Against Cheap Russian Supply

General market overview

📊 Following the final results of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, the market is shifting from a sharp reassessment of yield potential toward demand and weather confirmation. For soybeans, continued Chinese buying is becoming the key factor. For corn, the focus is on confirmation of a tighter balance sheet, while wheat is watching Black Sea risks and weather developments in the Plains.
🚢 The Black Sea factor remains important, but its impact on wheat has become less straightforward. Hints of a possible diplomatic track regarding attacks on grain exports are weighing on prices, while the ongoing conflict and export disruptions continue to limit the case for a deeper selloff.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 The soybean complex is moving lower due to weakness in soybean oil, profit-taking after the recent rally, and disappointment over the absence of new morning flash sales to China following large purchases late last week.
📊🇺🇸 The bearish tone following the Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues to pressure soybeans. Final estimates removed part of the concern around yield potential, meaning the market now needs consistent demand confirmation to prevent a deeper correction.
🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains the key factor for the short-term direction. Without new purchases this week, the risk of further long liquidation will increase, while additional sales could quickly stabilize the market.
🌱🇺🇸 US soybean conditions declined by 1 percentage point to 60% good/excellent, compared with 69% last year, while poor/very poor increased to 12%. Conditions improved in the Delta and Southeast but deteriorated in the Dakotas, Kansas, and Ohio.
🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall in the Delta and southeastern US is supporting local conditions, while moisture is expected to remain limited across much of the main growing region. Better rainfall prospects for the northern half of the Midwest in the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts may limit renewed upside.
🌍 Weaker international weather signals continue to provide medium-term support to the oilseed complex. EU soybean yields are expected to be 14% below the five-year average, while India’s oilseed crops are under pressure from the weakest monsoon since 2009.
📑 Soybean open interest fell by more than 17,000 contracts yesterday as prices declined, indicating long liquidation after last week’s rally. Trading volume was the highest in a month, making the correction technically significant.
📈 The longer-term soybean trend remains higher, but sellers have gained the short-term advantage. Strong crush and solid export demand continue to provide underlying medium-term support, but prices need to stimulate renewed Chinese buying to stop further long liquidation.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is under pressure from weaker soybean oil, profit-taking, bearish Crop Tour results, and the absence of new flash sales to China. However, strong crush, previous export demand, and weather risks outside the US do not yet suggest that the broader upward trend has broken.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn is pulling back modestly after its strong rally but continues to hold significantly better than soybeans and wheat, as expectations of a tighter balance sheet and a strong technical structure continue to support the market.
📈 Sunday’s upside gap was tested during the session, but the December contract stopped just one cent short of fully closing it. This preserves the bullish technical signal following the breakout on high trading volume.
🇺🇸 US corn conditions declined more than expected, falling 3 percentage points to 57% good/excellent, compared with 71% last year, while poor/very poor increased to 17%. The largest deterioration was recorded in the Dakotas and Colorado, where Colorado posted a record-low 19% good/excellent rating for this date.
🌾🇺🇸 Sorghum conditions deteriorated another 1 percentage point to 27% good/excellent, while heat and dryness in the southern Plains are expected to persist for another two weeks. Better rainfall chances in western Kansas and the Panhandles may provide local relief but do not yet change the broader stress picture.
🇪🇺 EU corn yields were revised lower again and are now expected to be 7% below the five-year average. Further reductions in EU production remain possible, supporting the global corn balance.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s safrinha harvest advanced to 92%, compared with 98% last year, while first-crop corn planting has started and reached 2%, versus 3.2% a year earlier. This is not yet a major price driver but keeps attention on the South American crop calendar.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections for the week ended August 20 totaled 1.296 MMT. Cumulative inspections are 25.5% above last year and have already reached 97.4% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 86.7% five-year average.
📑 Managed Money’s net long position has likely already exceeded 300,000 contracts, but the strong technical structure is giving funds little reason to exit positions. Following the highest trading volume since March, the market remains in an upward trend.

Bottom line: Corn is correcting only modestly because lower crop condition ratings, tightening balance-sheet risk, weaker EU yields, strong export inspections, and the still-open bullish chart gap continue to support the market. Profit-taking remains possible, but there are currently few fundamental reasons for a deep pullback.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is moving lower after failing to extend its rally, as hints of a possible diplomatic track aimed at reducing attacks on grain exports removed part of the Black Sea risk premium.
🚢 At the same time, Black Sea risk has not disappeared. Russia previously rejected Ukraine’s ceasefire proposal, while the conflict itself continues. The market may correct, but there is still no strong fundamental argument for a deep selloff.
🌦️🇺🇸 Potential rainfall in western Kansas and the Panhandles over the next week is also weighing on wheat, although expected totals do not appear sufficient to fully relieve drought conditions. A heat dome is expected to remain over Oklahoma and Texas for around another two weeks, with frequent temperatures above 100°F.
🚢🇷🇺 Cheaper Russian wheat remains the main constraint on US wheat. IKAR estimates Russian export prices at $210/t, down $5/t from last week and almost $2/t below spot US SRW prices. Growing inventories in Russia are adding to the pressure.
🚢🇷🇺 Expected Russian wheat exports for August were lowered to 2.0 MMT, compared with last week’s forecast of 2.1-2.6 MMT and 4.4 MMT last year. The slower export pace supports the global balance, but cheap Russian supply limits the futures response.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat harvest is complete, while HRS harvest has reached 62%, well above the 52% average. Rapid harvest progress is reducing part of the short-term production risk.
🌾🇺🇸 HRS wheat conditions declined by 1 percentage point to 51% good/excellent, while poor/very poor increased to 14%. Scattered rainfall is expected across the northern Plains and southern Canadian Prairies, but significant totals are not forecast.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections for the week ended August 20 totaled 426,000 t. Cumulative inspections are 26.1% below last year and have reached 20.6% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 22.6% five-year average.
📉 Wheat is likely to remain more of a follower than a leader in any grain-market rally due to accumulating Black Sea supply and cheaper Russian prices. However, the ongoing conflict and severe drought in the southern Plains continue to limit the risk of a major selloff.

Bottom line: Wheat is correcting due to profit-taking, diplomatic signals around attacks on grain exports, potential rainfall in Kansas and the Panhandles, and cheaper Russian supply. However, the ongoing Black Sea conflict, slower Russian exports, and drought in the southern Plains continue to provide enough support to limit the downside.