Market Report 24.08.2026

Corn surges on Pro Farmer’s lower yield outlook, while Black Sea risk supports wheat and strong Chinese demand underpins soybeans.

General market overview

📊 Final results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour delivered a mixed signal for agricultural markets. Soybean estimates came in better than expected, while corn results confirmed substantially lower yield potential compared with USDA.
🚢 Black Sea risk intensified again after Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposal for a ceasefire on attacks targeting grain exports. This keeps regional export logistics under pressure and provides support to grain markets.
📑 Speculative positioning in agricultural futures strengthened sharply. Funds aggressively increased long exposure in soybeans, soybean products and corn, while reducing Chicago wheat shorts and expanding long positions in Kansas City wheat.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 Weekend rainfall reached Nebraska and northeastern Kansas, while most of the Midwest remained dry. Over the next five days, scattered rainfall is expected across Kansas, Nebraska and the far northern Midwest. The 6–10 day outlook brings above-normal precipitation back into the central and eastern soybean belt, while the southern Plains are expected to remain hot and dry for at least another two weeks.
❄️🇦🇷 Argentine wheat faces a frost risk this week, adding another weather uncertainty to the global wheat balance.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are starting the week lower after the final Pro Farmer Crop Tour estimate came in better than expected. The tour projected US soybean yield at 53.3 bpa, above USDA’s 52.7 bpa, and production at 4.572 billion bushels, compared with USDA’s 4.519 billion. Lower crude oil is adding pressure.
📊🇺🇸 The stronger crop estimate temporarily eased yield concerns, but did not remove them completely as the crop still has to pass through its final development stage. The relatively limited downside price reaction also suggests underlying support remains in place.
🇨🇳 Strong Chinese demand in the second half of last week remains a key supportive factor. China’s new-crop soybean purchases have already exceeded 10 MMT, which may keep prices elevated in the short term.
📑 COT data showed a sharp increase in bullish positioning across the soybean complex. Managed Money bought 50,300 soybean contracts, lifting the net long to 151,662 contracts. The soybean meal net long increased to 83,024 contracts, while soybean oil reached 98,237 contracts.
🌎 Trade tensions with Canada create a separate risk for soybean meal because Canada is a significantly more important buyer of US meal than of US soybeans. A stronger Canadian tariff response could weaken the export outlook specifically for meal.
📉 Soybean oil is under significant pressure at the start of the week, limiting support for the wider soybean complex. However, strong Chinese soybean demand is still preventing a deeper correction.
📈 The next move in soybeans will depend heavily on whether China continues active buying this week. With the Crop Tour now complete, extending the rally may become more difficult, increasing the likelihood of more volatile sideways trade.

Bottom line: Better-than-expected Pro Farmer results and weakness in soybean oil are pressuring the soybean complex, but strong Chinese demand and aggressive fund buying continue to provide underlying support. Near-term direction will depend on fresh Chinese purchases and weather confirmation across the central and eastern soybean belt.

🌽 Corn

📈 Corn opened with a gap higher and reached a three-year high after supportive final Pro Farmer Crop Tour results. The tour estimated US corn yield at 173.2 bpa, well below USDA’s 180.7 bpa.
📊🇺🇸 Pro Farmer estimated US corn production 9.9% lower y/y, confirming broader pollination and grain-fill problems than the market had previously expected.
📑 COT data showed aggressive fund buying in corn. Managed Money purchased 83,735 contracts, lifting the net long to 250,505 contracts. Including the rally late last week, speculative fund length has likely approached 290,000 contracts, although that remains below the historical high of around 435,000 contracts.
🇧🇷 Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest has reached 84.4%, while higher US prices are beginning to reduce the competitiveness of US corn. This may partially limit export optimism after the sharp rally.
📈 Technically, the upside gap following the final Crop Tour results is a strong supportive signal. Even if final US yield ends up between the Pro Farmer and USDA estimates, ending stocks could still tighten significantly.

Bottom line: Corn is strongly supported by Pro Farmer’s yield estimate well below USDA, the risk of tighter ending stocks, aggressive fund buying and renewed Black Sea tension. Although the rally is beginning to weaken US competitiveness, solid demand below the market may remain this week.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat posted a strong overnight session and is holding double-digit gains after Russia rejected Ukraine’s proposal for a ceasefire on attacks targeting grain exports. With no signs of rapid de-escalation, traders are less willing to aggressively rebuild short positions.
🌾🇺🇸 Drought remains an important factor across US wheat regions. The share of HRS under drought remains at 63%, while only light and scattered rainfall is expected across the northern Plains this week. Most areas are forecast to receive less than 0.25 inches.
❄️🇦🇷 Frost risk for Argentine wheat this week adds another source of weather premium. This is increasingly relevant as global buyers monitor alternatives to Black Sea origin.
🌍 India lifted its export ban on certain wheat grades over the weekend, while Morocco is planning import subsidies following weaker-than-expected production. This creates a mixed trade picture: available supply may expand, but import demand in North Africa remains active.
📑 COT data showed Managed Money reducing its Chicago wheat net short by 4,916 contracts to 26,485 contracts. In Kansas City, funds increased their net long by 7,173 contracts to 34,835 contracts.
📈 December Chicago wheat is approaching the July high near 720 1/4. A close above this level would be an important technical signal for buyers.

Bottom line: Wheat is supported by renewed Black Sea export risk, persistent heat in the southern US Plains, frost risk in Argentina and short covering in Chicago. A December close above the July high could materially strengthen the technical outlook.