Market Report 24.07.2026

Black Sea Logistics Risks And Hotter Weather Support Grain Markets, While Soybeans, Corn And Wheat Correct After Recent Gains

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea logistics remain under pressure. Russia reports strikes on three Ukrainian ports, while Maersk has suspended service to the Port of Chornomorsk. This increases uncertainty surrounding Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports.
🚢🇪🇺 European river logistics are also becoming more challenging. Low water levels on the Rhine are restricting barge loading capacity and adding logistics risk to inland transportation across the EU.
🛢️ Crude oil is correcting today after its recent advance, placing the most direct pressure on soybean oil. At the same time, risks to maritime logistics remain relevant for agricultural markets.
💵 A stronger US dollar remains a moderate headwind for grain prices.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 US rainfall through the end of next week is expected to remain limited outside far southeastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas and Missouri. Heat will return to the northern Plains over the weekend before spreading across the Plains and upper Midwest early next week.
🌡️🇪🇺 Heat is expected to return to Europe next week, while rainfall will remain insufficient to materially ease stress in key corn-growing regions.
☀️🇦🇺 Australia is forecast to experience a drier pattern over the next 10 days, potentially increasing stress on wheat crops.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are trading slightly lower today after reaching another new high overnight. Soybean meal activity remains limited, while soybean oil is falling with crude oil. Despite today’s correction, the broader upward trend in soybeans remains intact.
📉 Soybean oil is facing the strongest short-term pressure from weaker crude oil prices.
🌦️🇺🇸 Weather remains the key supportive factor for CBOT soybeans. Moisture problems persist in the western and northwestern soybean belt, while conditions in the central and eastern belt appear more moderate. The market will closely watch Sunday’s forecast for potential rainfall during the first half of August.
📑 Rising open interest during the previous rally indicates fresh buying even at higher price levels. This confirms that the latest move was supported not only by weather risks but also by stronger capital inflows.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export sales for the week ended July 16 totaled 56,351 t for the current marketing year and 1.53 MMT for the next season, bringing combined sales to 1.59 MMT. New-crop cumulative sales reached 13.6% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 13.1% five-year average.
🚢🇺🇸 Soybean meal sales totaled 185,049 t for the current season and 406,130 t for the next season, bringing combined sales to 591,179 t. Cumulative sales have already reached 96.7% of the USDA forecast, versus the 92.8% five-year average.
🚢🇺🇸 Soybean oil sales totaled only 635 t for the current season, with no sales recorded for the next marketing year. Cumulative sales reached 83.6% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 83.2% five-year average.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is correcting today due to weaker crude oil and profit-taking after the recent rally. However, the upward trend in CBOT soybeans remains intact. US weather risks, strong new-crop sales and buying interest on price declines continue to favor buyers.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading lower today after reaching new highs for the move overnight, as the market takes partial profits at the end of the week. MATIF corn is also declining, while European trading remains relatively subdued.
🌦️🇺🇸 The weather outlook remains supportive for CBOT corn. Most of the western Corn Belt is expected to receive limited rainfall, while temperatures could exceed 100°F. The share of US corn area under drought increased to 20%, compared with 9% a year ago.
🇪🇺 European crop conditions also remain supportive. The share of French corn rated good or excellent fell by another 2 percentage points to 38%, compared with 69% last year. This maintains the risk of a weaker EU corn harvest.
🚢🇺🇦 Renewed attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure create a particularly significant risk for corn, as Ukraine remains an important supplier to the global market. Logistics disruptions could slow exports and support prices on declines.
🚜🇦🇷 Argentina’s corn harvest reached 67%. This adds South American supply to the market but does not change the main focus on weather conditions in the US and EU.
⛽🇧🇷 Brazil’s Federal Public Prosecutor’s Office has filed a lawsuit against the recently approved increase in the ethanol blend in gasoline from 30% to 32%. This creates political uncertainty around domestic corn demand for ethanol.
📑 Corn open interest increased by more than 16,500 contracts, providing a supportive signal alongside rising prices. However, some end-of-week profit-taking remains possible today.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export sales for the week ended July 16 totaled 332,679 t for the current marketing year and 701,505 t for the next season, bringing combined sales to 1.034 MMT. New-crop cumulative sales reached 9.3% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 13.2% five-year average.

Bottom line: Corn is correcting after reaching new highs, but the fundamental backdrop remains supportive due to the dry US forecast, poor French crop conditions and risks to Ukrainian logistics. The next move will largely depend on Sunday’s US rainfall forecast.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is falling sharply today as traders take profits at the end of the week following the strong previous advance. MATIF wheat is also declining sharply, although the fundamental backdrop remains supported by Black Sea logistics risks.
🚢 Black Sea risk remains the key driver for wheat. Logistics disruptions could restrict regional export availability and maintain a risk premium in prices. Combined Russian and Ukrainian exports this month are expected to decline by around one-third.
🌾🇺🇸 Final results from the US spring wheat tour showed an average yield of 48 bushels per acre, above the 45.8 bushel five-year average. However, the estimate was 1 bushel below last year’s tour result and substantially below USDA’s state estimate of 58 bushels per acre.
🌡️🇺🇸 The share of US spring wheat area under drought increased by 1 percentage point to 25%, although this remains below 43% a year ago. Strong heat is expected across the northern Plains over the weekend and may persist through much of next week.
🚜🇦🇷🇫🇷 Argentina’s wheat planting is 98% complete, while the French wheat harvest has been completed. This provides greater clarity on seasonal progress but does not offset Black Sea risks.
🇦🇺 A drier 10-day forecast for Australia could increase stress on wheat crops. This adds another supportive factor to the global balance, although the market remains primarily focused on the Black Sea region and the US.
📈 The technical structure for wheat remains constructive after prices broke to new contract highs this week. Until Black Sea logistics normalize, short-term declines may continue to attract buyers.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales for the week ended July 16 totaled 290,016 t for the current marketing year, with no sales recorded for the next season. Cumulative sales reached 31.5% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 34.1% five-year average.

Bottom line: Wheat is correcting sharply today due to profit-taking and spring wheat tour results that were less negative than the market expected. However, Black Sea risks, the anticipated decline in Ukrainian and Russian exports, a drier Australian forecast and this week’s technical breakout continue to provide support on price declines.