Market Report 23.09.2026

General market overview

• 🇨🇳🇺🇸 Ahead of the US–China talks on September 24, agricultural markets remain highly sensitive to any signals on Chinese purchases of US farm products. The trade truce is expected to be a major part of the discussions, but its duration has not yet been agreed. For agricultural markets, the key issue will be the scale of any concrete purchase commitments.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Black Sea logistics risks remain elevated after another Russian attack damaged a vessel and logistics infrastructure in Odesa. At the same time, Russia says it intends to use all available logistics capacity to maintain agricultural exports.

• 💵🇺🇸 The US dollar climbed to its highest level in nearly two months, adding pressure to dollar-denominated agricultural commodities.

---

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📉 Soybeans are trading slightly lower and remain locked in a sideways range ahead of the US–China talks. The market has lacked a clear direction for several weeks, while the next two sessions could bring significantly higher volatility as headline risk increases.

• 🇨🇳 The central question is the size of any additional Chinese commitment to US soybeans. China is already expected to purchase around 25 MMT annually through 2028, so any agreement that does not materially expand demand beyond that level may struggle to sustain an initial bullish reaction.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Large new confirmed US soybean sales have remained limited recently, although market reports point to Chinese interest in shipments for Q1 2027.

• 🌱🇺🇸 Nearby soybean availability remains very tight in the western US grain belt as harvest progresses more slowly. Crushers are raising bids aggressively for prompt delivery, while soybeans from southern states are already moving north to supply processing plants.

• 🚜🇧🇷 Recent rainfall in southern Brazil has been favorable for soybean planting. In Paraná, planting is already around 15% complete, bringing the early development of the new South American crop increasingly into market focus.

• 🚢🇨🇳 A private Chinese crusher purchased 68,000 t of new-crop Australian canola for March shipment, following another Australian cargo that arrived earlier this month. These are the first known purchases by private Chinese crushers since trade was disrupted in 2020, highlighting China’s search for alternative oilseed supplies.

• 📑 Soybean open interest increased slightly alongside prices yesterday, while open interest in soybean meal and soybean oil declined. Traders remain cautious ahead of the talks, as a single headline could quickly change market direction.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly lower and remain range-bound ahead of the US–China talks. Tight nearby supply in the western US belt and expectations for Chinese demand provide support, while favorable Brazilian planting conditions and the risk of disappointment over actual purchase volumes limit upside potential.

---

🌽 Corn

• 📉 Corn is trading lower and has already given back most of Monday’s strong gains. Pressure comes from uncertainty over whether corn will be included in Chinese purchases, US harvest pressure, favorable moisture for Brazilian planting, and a stronger dollar.

• 🇨🇳 The market still has little confidence that US corn will form a meaningful part of any Chinese agricultural purchase package. Without concrete commitments after the summit, harvest pressure could quickly return as the dominant driver.

• 🌽🇺🇸 Dr. Cordonnier estimates US corn yield at 175–177 bpa and sees the possibility that harvested area could decline by 300,000–500,000 acres because more corn was used for silage. This keeps the risk of further reductions in US production on the table.

• 🇦🇷 Estimates for Argentina’s 2026/27 corn production continue to rise, adding pressure to the longer-term global supply outlook.

• 🇪🇺 COCERAL cut its EU-27+UK total grain crop forecast to 279.0 MMT, down around 2.7% from its July forecast and about 9% y/y. The smaller crop remains a supportive factor for the European grain market.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Heavy rainfall across western Iowa and much of Nebraska through the middle of next week is expected to delay harvesting, while field conditions should remain considerably better across the eastern belt.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Rain is also slowing corn harvesting in Ukraine, while renewed Russian strikes on shipping and logistics infrastructure continue to create risks for new-crop exports.

• 📑 Managed funds continue to hold a near-record net long position. Without a fresh bullish catalyst after the summit, this positioning could limit upside and increase the risk of partial liquidation.

Bottom line: Corn is lower after the strong start to the week. Potential Chinese purchases, risks to US yield and harvested area, and Black Sea logistics problems provide support, while the stronger dollar, harvest pressure, and improving South American supply prospects are limiting prices.

---

🌾 Wheat

• 📉 Wheat is lower again, with December Chicago futures setting a new monthly low. Pressure comes from limited expectations for Chinese buying, a wetter US Plains forecast, and weak speculative interest.

• 🇨🇳 Expectations for significant Chinese purchases of US wheat remain limited because US prices are still relatively uncompetitive against alternative origins.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 A wetter forecast for drought-affected areas of the US Plains could improve soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. This remains one of the main short-term bearish factors.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Another Russian attack damaged a vessel and logistics infrastructure in Odesa, keeping risks to Ukrainian exports elevated. At the same time, Russia says it intends to maximize the use of available logistics infrastructure for its own grain exports.

• 🌾🇺🇦 Ukraine’s wheat harvest is complete, with final production estimated around 11% above last year, increasing new-crop availability.

• 🇪🇺 COCERAL cut its EU-27+UK soft wheat production estimate to 137.5 MMT, down from 140.8 MMT in July and around 7.5% below 2025. The smaller crop remains supportive for the European balance.

• 🇮🇳 India’s wheat planting will begin in October following an erratic monsoon season. Farmers have also been reducing spending on agricultural inputs as weaker rainfall weighs on demand for fertilizers and crop-protection products.

• 📉 Trading activity remains exceptionally low, pointing to weak speculative participation. The new monthly low increases technical pressure, particularly if the market closes near current levels.

Bottom line: Wheat remains under pressure from low expectations for Chinese demand, improving rainfall prospects in the US, and weak speculative interest. Lower EU-27+UK production and renewed Black Sea logistics risks provide fundamental support, but so far they have not been enough to reverse the weak technical structure.