Market Report 23.07.2026

General market overview

• 🚢🇺🇦 Black Sea logistics remain under pressure. Shipowners have temporarily suspended calls at some Ukrainian ports due to continued Russian attacks, while Russia says strikes on Odesa will continue. This increases risks to Ukrainian grain and oilseed exports.

• 🚢 The geopolitical premium has strengthened again. The Houthis attacked tankers in the Red Sea, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply, and risks to Black Sea logistics remain elevated.

• 🛢️ Crude oil is rising amid renewed escalation in the Middle East. This directly supports soybean oil and provides additional help to corn through the energy channel.

🌦️ Weather

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Through the middle of next week, US rainfall is expected to remain largely limited to eastern Kansas, Missouri and the far southeastern part of Nebraska, while much of the Midwest and Plains stays dry. The 6–10 day outlook maintains a rainfall deficit across central and eastern production areas, with above-normal temperatures continuing in the western crop belt.

• 🌡️🇪🇺 European rainfall for corn remains scattered and light. No material improvement in crop conditions is expected over the next two weeks.

• ☀️🇦🇺 Australia is expected to turn drier over the next 10 days, potentially increasing stress on wheat crops.

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 CBOT soybeans continue to rise and post fresh highs, while soybean oil extends gains amid the sharp increase in crude oil. Higher prices accompanied by rising open interest confirm stronger market momentum.

• 🛢️ Energy markets are the key driver for soybean oil today. Crude oil gained almost $4/bbl, while attacks in the Red Sea and slower traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have restored a geopolitical risk premium.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The main fundamental risk for CBOT soybeans remains the lack of meaningful rainfall across the Midwest and Plains. The market continues to price in the possibility of lower US yields, allowing even minor pullbacks to attract buyers quickly.

• 🇧🇷 Rabobank estimates Brazil’s 2026/27 soybean crop at 178 MMT, compared with 182 MMT in the previous season, and expects a pause in acreage expansion. This provides support to the global balance, although US weather remains the main short-term focus.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US export sales expectations:

  • Old-crop soybeans: -200,000 to 400,000 t
  • New-crop soybeans: 1.0–1.8 MMT
  • Old-crop soybean meal: 100,000–300,000 t
  • New-crop soybean meal: 0–275,000 t
  • Soybean oil: 0–5,000 t

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains strong. CBOT soybeans are setting fresh highs, soybean oil is supported by crude oil and geopolitical tension, while the risk of lower US yields is preventing sellers from returning aggressively.

🌽 Corn

• 📈 CBOT corn continues to advance and has reached a two-month high, supported by stronger energy markets and a drier weather outlook. MATIF activity remains limited: the nearby contract is slightly lower, while the following contract is modestly higher.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The weather backdrop remains supportive for CBOT corn. Most of the Midwest and Plains are not expected to receive meaningful rainfall over the next 10 days. High overnight temperatures remain an additional yield risk.

• 🇪🇺 European rainfall remains scattered and light, with no significant improvement in corn conditions expected over the next two weeks. This keeps the possibility of additional EU import demand later in the season in place.

• 🚢🇺🇦 The temporary suspension of vessel calls at some Ukrainian ports creates particular risk for corn, as Ukraine remains an important supplier to the global market.

• ⛽🇺🇸 US ethanol production reached 1.094 million barrels per day in the week ended July 17, up 5.2% w/w. Stocks also exceeded expectations, rising to 24.481 million barrels, a new record for this week of the year.

• 📑 Funds were active buyers of corn yesterday, purchasing an estimated 28,000 contracts. Open interest increased by almost 7,000 contracts and reached a new 2026 high, confirming strong speculative participation in the current move.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales expectations:

  • Old crop: 400,000–800,000 t
  • New crop: 400,000–750,000 t

Bottom line: CBOT corn remains in a strong upward move, supported by energy markets, a drier forecast, active fund buying and risks to Ukrainian exports. MATIF remains quiet and mixed between contracts, leaving the European move more restrained.

🌾 Wheat

• 📉 CBOT wheat is trading with high volatility today and has moved into a mild correction after yesterday’s strong rally. MATIF wheat is declining more clearly after the previous session’s sharp rise, although risks to Black Sea and broader maritime logistics remain the main market driver.

• 🚢 Black Sea risk remains the key supportive factor for wheat.

• 🌾🇺🇸 The second day of the US spring wheat crop tour produced better results in central and northwestern North Dakota. Average yield was estimated at 48 bpa, compared with 47.1 bpa on the same route last year. Final tour results are expected later today.

• 📊🇺🇸 USDA estimates US spring wheat yield at 58 bpa, compared with 55 bpa last year. If actual yields fall below average, US ending stocks could decline further due to yield losses and abandoned acreage in drought-affected parts of the Plains.

• 🇦🇺 Australia is expected to experience drier weather over the next 10 days, which could increase stress on wheat crops and add another supportive factor to the global balance.

• 🚢🇪🇺 EU soft wheat exports since the beginning of July are down 46% y/y. This is limiting the European market, although Black Sea risks and lower production expectations keep the broader outlook supported.

• 📑 Fund buying in wheat yesterday was estimated at more than 20,000 contracts, while new contract highs triggered short covering. A close in September Chicago wheat above the previous May highs leaves buyers firmly in control.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US wheat export sales are expected at 200,000–500,000 t.

Bottom line: Wheat remains supported by Black Sea risks, escalating attacks on maritime traffic and a stronger technical structure in Chicago. CBOT is highly volatile with a mild corrective bias today, while MATIF is retreating after a strong rally, but the underlying fundamental outlook remains positive.