Market Report 22.09.2026

General market overview

• 🇨🇳 Ahead of the US–China summit on September 24, markets remain highly sensitive to any signals regarding purchases of US agricultural products. Expectations are centered mainly on soybeans and corn, although attention is likely to shift quickly back to the US harvest after the meeting.

• 🚢 Talks over a potential ceasefire and the security of Black Sea grain exports are partly reducing the geopolitical risk premium today. Ukraine has said it is ready to consider options for an unconditional ceasefire, while Turkey is holding talks with Russia over the security of grain shipments.

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🫛 Soybean complex

• 📉 Soybeans are slightly lower today but remain within the recent sideways range ahead of the US–China summit. Traders are reluctant to build larger positions before two potentially highly volatile sessions on Thursday and Friday.

• 🇨🇳 SinoGrain sold 338,700 t out of 543,000 t of reserve soybeans offered and has already scheduled another auction for Monday. The market views this as a further release of domestic stocks and a potential move to create room for new import purchases.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections for the week ended September 17 totaled 759,200 t. Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, inspections have reached 1.682 MMT, up 1.8% y/y and ahead of the typical seasonal pace.

• 🚜🇺🇸 US soybean harvest advanced to 12%, compared with the 8% average, running 4 percentage points ahead of last year and 5 points above the 10-year average. Crop conditions were unchanged at 58% good/excellent.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The eastern crop belt is expected to turn drier over the next week, supporting faster harvest progress. At the same time, rainfall is expected to increase late in the week from the southwestern Plains toward Nebraska and western Iowa, where localized fieldwork delays are possible.

• 🚜🇧🇷 AgRural estimates Brazilian soybean planting at 1.2%. The start of the new South American season is gradually increasing the importance of weather conditions for the market.

• 📉 Soybean meal and soybean oil are also slightly weaker today. Additional pressure on soybean oil comes from record Argentine soybean oil exports during the first five months of 2026.

• 📑 Soybean open interest increased moderately yesterday alongside prices, while open interest in meal and oil declined. The market remains cautious ahead of the summit, as a single headline could quickly change direction.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly lower but remain range-bound ahead of the US–China summit. Chinese reserve auctions and the strong pace of US exports provide support, while faster US harvesting, weaker meal and oil, and the start of Brazilian planting are limiting upside.

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🌽 Corn

• 📉 Corn is slightly lower today after yesterday’s strong rally, which was driven by expectations of possible Chinese purchases. The market remains supported by this scenario, but US harvest pressure could quickly return to focus after the summit.

• 🇨🇳 The key question remains whether US corn will be included in a Chinese purchase package and how large any commitment could be. China may agree to framework purchases over a certain period, allowing grain to be bought when prices become attractive.

• 🌽🇺🇸 US corn harvest reached 13%, compared with 10% last year and the 11% average. Crop conditions were unchanged at 57% good/excellent, which is 5 percentage points below the 10-year average.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The eastern crop belt is turning drier for the next 7–10 days, which should accelerate harvest progress. Rainfall this week will be more concentrated in western Kansas and Nebraska, while temperatures are expected to move above normal again in early October.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections were strong at 1.939 MMT. Since the start of the marketing year, inspections have reached 4.139 MMT, up 15.9% y/y and well ahead of the typical seasonal pace.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine’s corn harvest is progressing, with early yields running around 4% above the five-year average. However, damage to port infrastructure could keep Ukrainian exports well below normal levels in the coming months, when shipments typically accelerate.

• 📑 Managed funds remain close to a record net-long position. Therefore, even if the market reacts positively to potential Chinese purchases, further upside may be partly limited by producer selling and new-crop hedging.

Bottom line: Corn is slightly correcting after yesterday’s strong rally. Expectations of Chinese purchases, strong export inspections, and Ukrainian logistics problems are supportive, while faster US harvesting and the large fund long position could limit additional gains after the summit.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📉 Wheat is moderately lower today as discussions over a potential ceasefire and Black Sea grain export security reduce part of the geopolitical premium. Cheaper Russian wheat and improved rainfall prospects in the US are also weighing on the market.

• 🚢🇷🇺 According to IKAR, Russian export wheat fell by $6/t this week to $268/t. The substantial discount to US wheat continues to weaken US competitiveness on the global market.

• 🇨🇳 Significant Chinese purchases of US wheat are not expected during the summit, as US prices remain noticeably above alternative origins.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Soil moisture is expected to improve across the southwestern Plains by the weekend, particularly in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas. Rainfall should support winter wheat planting.

• 🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat planting reached 17%, compared with the 21% average, and remains 4 percentage points below the 10-year average. Spring wheat harvest is 96% complete, broadly in line with the normal pace.

• 🌦️🇨🇦 Drier weather across the southern Canadian Prairies should allow harvest progress to recover some of the significant delays accumulated earlier.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections totaled 335,300 t. Since the start of the marketing year, inspections have reached 6.028 MMT, down 31.5% y/y and behind the five-year seasonal pace.

• 📉 Recent sideways trading continues to leave the technical picture weak. Wheat’s inability to rally meaningfully yesterday despite strong gains in corn and soybeans points to limited buying interest. A new strong catalyst is needed for a sustained recovery.

Bottom line: Wheat is moderately lower under pressure from Black Sea negotiations, cheaper Russian supply, and improving US planting weather. Weak US exports are already largely reflected in prices, while the next move will depend on developments in the Black Sea and the emergence of new demand.