Market Report 22.07.2026

Black Sea risks, drier US weather and higher crude oil prices strengthen the bullish tone across grain and oilseed markets.

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea risk has strengthened support for grain markets again. New attacks on grain ports have increased concerns about regional exports, while Chicago wheat climbed to nearly two-year highs.
🛢️ Higher crude oil prices are also supporting agricultural markets as escalation in the Middle East restricts global oil supplies. This provides additional support to corn and the soybean complex through the energy channel.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 In the US, rainfall through early next week will be concentrated mainly in eastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas and Missouri, while most of the Midwest and Plains remain dry. Heat is then expected to return to the western crop belt, while the 6–14 day outlook shows below-normal precipitation, increasing risks for soybeans and corn.
🌡️🇪🇺 Rainfall for European corn remains limited, and no significant improvement in crop conditions is expected over the next two weeks. This continues to support the European corn market.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 CBOT soybeans are moving higher again today after the market failed to close the overnight price gap created at the beginning of the week. The technical structure remains favorable for buyers, and the current breakout could encourage funds to add further long positions.
🌦️🇺🇸 Weather remains the main driver for CBOT soybeans, as below-normal precipitation is expected across a large part of the Midwest and Plains. The market is pricing in the risk of crop conditions deteriorating over the next two weeks.
🇨🇳 Chinese demand continues to support the market. China may have purchased up to 10 additional cargoes of US soybeans on Monday. Firm CIF quotations also confirm active demand for US origin.
📊🇺🇸 Dr. Cordonnier lowered his US soybean yield estimate to 52 bu/acre, compared with USDA’s 53 bu/acre. Even a 1 bu/acre yield reduction could significantly tighten the balance sheet, keeping the risk of lower stocks an important source of support.
🛢️ Higher crude oil prices provide additional support to the soybean complex, particularly soybean oil, through its connection with energy and biofuel markets. This strengthens the overall positive tone across the complex.

Bottom line: The soybean complex maintains a strong tone. CBOT soybeans are rising on a combination of a drier weather outlook, active Chinese demand and positive technical signals. As long as the risk of lower yields remains relevant, aggressive selling interest is likely to stay limited.

🌽 Corn

📈 CBOT corn continues to move higher today, supported by stronger energy markets and a drier outlook for most of the Midwest and Plains. The trend remains upward.
🌦️🇺🇸 Weather risk for CBOT corn is increasing. Heat will return to the western crop belt over the weekend, while the 6–14 day forecast shows below-normal rainfall through the end of the second week. High overnight temperatures remain an additional yield risk.
📊🇺🇸 JCI and Dr. Cordonnier lowered their US corn yield estimates to 181 bu/acre, which is 2 bu/acre below USDA’s forecast. This strengthens expectations for lower US ending stocks.
🇪🇺 The European factor also remains supportive. Rainfall for EU corn is limited, and no significant improvement in crop conditions is expected over the next two weeks. This maintains the possibility of additional EU import demand later in the season.
🛢️ Escalation around Iran pushed crude oil to a five-week high, supporting corn through the ethanol channel. Ethanol production is expected at 1.075 million barrels per day, compared with 1.04 million last week, while stocks are expected below the previous week’s level.
📈 CME announced that its new sorghum futures contract will begin trading on August 24. This is not a direct driver for corn today, but it increases attention on the feed grain segment.

Bottom line: CBOT corn continues to rise on stronger energy markets, a drier weather outlook and lower private US yield estimates. If weather premium continues to build, the market could accelerate its upward move.

🌾 Wheat

📈 CBOT wheat is resuming its advance today after several sessions of consolidation, with Chicago prices reaching nearly two-year highs. New attacks on Black Sea grain ports and lower US production estimates are providing support.
🚢 The Black Sea remains the main driver for wheat. New attacks have increased risks to regional exports, while Russia has signaled that it may consider a new export corridor to protect grain shipments. This indicates that the attacks are already affecting logistics.
🌾🇺🇸 The first day of the spring wheat crop tour covered 86 fields in southern North Dakota, with an average yield of 46 bu/acre, compared with 50 bu/acre last year. Following acreage reductions across most wheat classes, a strong spring wheat crop is needed to prevent a further decline in ending stocks.
🌡️🇺🇸 Heat and dryness across the northern Plains remain significant risks for spring wheat. Concerns may intensify again next week, when temperatures above 100°F are expected.
🇷🇺 Russia kept its wheat export duty at zero for another week. This partially limits price support but does not offset the risks surrounding Black Sea logistics.
📈 The technical structure for wheat remains positive. A breakout above last week’s highs would be an important signal for buyers and could strengthen upward momentum.

Bottom line: Wheat is resuming its advance on a combination of Black Sea risks, lower US spring wheat yield estimates and positive technical signals. Risks to Black Sea exports currently outweigh weaker factors and keep the market supported.