Market Report 21.10.2026

🌍 General Market Overview

• 📊📉 Major US agricultural futures are trading mostly lower today. Soybeans and corn continue to weaken under pressure from abundant new-crop supplies, while wheat is also declining amid subdued demand for US grain and broader selling pressure.

• 🌍 US envoy Steve Witkoff's meeting with Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg, following earlier talks in Oslo, has raised expectations of a possible resumption of trilateral discussions involving the US, Ukraine and russia. The diplomatic developments have reduced some of the geopolitical risk premium in agricultural markets.

• 🚢 However, physical export logistics have not improved. Approximately 80 vessels are waiting to pass through the Sulina Channel, while alternative routes remain unable to replace the capacity of deepwater ports.

---

🫛 Soybean Complex

• 📉 CBOT soybeans continue to decline today. Seasonal arrivals of the US harvest and the generally weak tone across the complex are outweighing support from confirmed Chinese purchases.

• 🚢🇨🇳 According to the latest reported sales figures, new US soybean sales include 134,000 t to China and 165,000 t to Spain for the 2026/27 marketing year. These transactions are separate from yesterday's 612,000 t sale to China, but even additional confirmed demand has yet to reverse the downward direction of futures.

• 🌤️🇺🇸 Mostly dry weather is forecast across the US Midwest over the next 10 days, providing favorable conditions for harvesting. This supports expectations of continued strong physical supply arrivals and remains a bearish factor for soybeans.

• 🚢🇧🇷 ANEC lowered its forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in October to 6.40 MMT, down from 6.55 MMT, while soybean meal shipments are estimated at approximately 2.52 MMT. The lower soybean export forecast slightly eases immediate Brazilian competition, although available supplies remain substantial.

• 📦🇨🇳 At a Sinograin auction, 297,500 t of imported soybeans were sold out of 504,000 t offered, representing approximately 59%. Reserve sales are increasing domestic soybean availability in China alongside new purchases of US supplies.

• 🇧🇷 A private forecast for Brazilian soybean production has been raised to 182 MMT. Meanwhile, excessive rainfall has affected some soybean fields in Paraná, although this remains a localized concern rather than evidence of a broader deterioration in Brazil's crop outlook.

Bottom line: Soybeans continue to decline as seasonal increases in US supply outweigh support from new export sales. Sustained demand growth capable of absorbing the incoming harvest will be necessary to stabilize the market.

---

🌽 Corn

• 📉 CBOT corn continues to decline, reaching fresh recent lows. A large US harvest, accelerating new-crop arrivals and speculative selling remain the main sources of pressure, while demand has yet to strengthen enough to stabilize prices.

• 🌤️🇺🇸 Mostly dry weather across the Midwest is supporting harvest progress and further grain deliveries. Meanwhile, new large-scale US corn export sales remain insufficient to offset the rapid increase in available supplies, maintaining the imbalance between supply and demand.

• 🚢🇧🇷 ANEC raised its forecast for Brazilian corn exports in October to 6.87 MMT. Stronger Brazilian shipments are increasing competition for US corn precisely as the American harvest enters the market.

• 🇧🇷 A private forecast for Brazilian corn production has been raised to 140 MMT. Excessive rainfall is creating localized problems for the first corn crop in Paraná, but has not yet changed the broader outlook for substantial Brazilian supplies.

• 🇪🇺 Europe's corn balance remains considerably tighter than that of the US. According to AGPM, French grain corn production is estimated at just 7 MMT, compared with 13.7 MMT last year, the lowest level in approximately 50 years.

• 🚢🇪🇺 EU corn imports reached 6.64 MMT as of October 18, approximately 40% above last year's level. This confirms Europe's significant need for external supplies, although it does not automatically translate into higher purchases of US corn.

Bottom line: Corn continues to weaken, with the large US harvest and rapid market arrivals remaining the dominant drivers. Strong EU import demand provides some support to the global balance, but has not yet offset US supply pressure and growing competition from Brazil.

---

🌾 Wheat

• 📉 US wheat futures are trading lower today, extending their recent weakness. Insufficient demand for US wheat, competition from alternative origins and technical selling remain the main bearish factors.

• 🇪🇺 European wheat is also under pressure. December MATIF futures closed the previous session lower despite an improving export backdrop. EU soft wheat exports since the beginning of the season reached 8.47 MMT, matching last year's pace. Physical demand is providing support but has not yet halted the decline in futures.

• 🚢🇪🇬 Egypt purchased approximately five cargoes of wheat through direct negotiations this week. The origins have not been definitively confirmed, although France and Romania are among the potential suppliers, supporting European physical demand.

• 🚢🇯🇴 Jordan issued a new tender for up to 120,000 t of milling wheat, with offers due by October 27, after the previous tender closed without a purchase. Import demand remains in place, but no new purchase has yet been confirmed.

• 🌧️🇦🇺 Significant rainfall is forecast for parts of eastern Australia as harvest approaches, with some areas potentially receiving at least 100 mm over two weeks. This increases the risk of harvest delays and deterioration in milling wheat quality, although actual crop losses have not yet been confirmed.

Bottom line: Wheat continues to decline as demand for US grain remains insufficient and competition from alternative suppliers stays strong. Physical buying activity supports the global market, but has not yet directed enough demand toward US wheat to reverse the downward trend in futures.