Market Report 21.09.2026

General market overview

• 🇨🇳 The US side gave a positive assessment of weekend US–China talks, but no specific agricultural purchase volumes have been announced. Ahead of the September 24 summit, markets will be watching for further signals, particularly on the scale of potential Chinese demand.

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 Soybeans are trading slightly higher today following positive signals from weekend US–China negotiations. Prices remain near the upper end of the recent range, but volatility could rise sharply ahead of the September 24 talks, with direction increasingly dependent on concrete Chinese purchase commitments.

• 🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains the key market driver this week. A significant amount of optimism is already priced in, so the absence of specific purchase volumes after the summit could disappoint the market.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Heavy weekend rainfall across eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois will continue to slow soybean harvesting. However, the 6–15 day forecast turns warmer and drier across the eastern belt, meaning harvest pressure could increase quickly later.

• 🇦🇷 Argentina approved a framework to raise the biodiesel blending mandate to 10% from 7.5%. If approved by the Senate, domestic soybean oil consumption would increase, reducing volumes available for export.

• 🚢🇮🇳 India, the world’s largest vegetable oil importer, is expected to record record imports in 2025/26, providing continued support to global vegetable oil demand.

• 📑 Managed funds reduced their net long soybean position by 21,321 contracts to 244,710 contracts. Meanwhile, the soybean meal position increased to a new record 185,546 contracts, while soybean oil reached 110,894 contracts.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly firmer on the positive tone from US–China talks and temporary harvest delays caused by rainfall. Further upside will require concrete Chinese purchase commitments, while drier US weather later could increase harvest pressure.

🌽 Corn

• 📈 Corn is moderately higher today on expectations that it could be included in a potential Chinese purchase package, while heavy weekend rainfall temporarily slowed harvesting. However, the market remains within its recent sideways range.

• 🇨🇳 The key question this week is whether US corn will be included in any Chinese agricultural purchase package and, if so, at what volume. The current US balance does not assume significant Chinese demand, so a large confirmed deal could materially improve the demand outlook.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Heavy rainfall affected eastern Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois, temporarily slowing harvest progress. However, the eastern half of the Midwest is gradually shifting toward drier conditions, while the 6–15 day outlook remains warmer than normal.

• 📑 Managed funds increased an already large net long corn position by another 1,671 contracts to 426,842 contracts. Positioning remains close to record levels, leaving the market vulnerable to partial long liquidation if negotiations disappoint or harvest activity accelerates.

Bottom line: Corn is recovering moderately but remains range-bound. Expectations of possible Chinese purchases and temporary harvest delays are supportive, while improving weather and heavy fund positioning continue to create downside risk.

🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat is recovering part of Friday’s decline but remains within last week’s trading range. The fundamental backdrop remains supportive, although weak speculative interest and improving US planting weather are limiting stronger gains.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukrainian wheat exports since the start of the marketing year are running 44% below last year’s level. At the same time, Black Sea risks remain elevated amid continued escalation of the war and further strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

• 🚢🇪🇬 Egypt is increasingly shifting wheat purchases toward Bulgaria and Romania instead of Russia. This is strengthening demand for EU wheat and highlights changing trade flows across the Black Sea region.

• 🌾🇷🇺 In a small survey of Russian farmers, 10 of 11 respondents said they plan to reduce wheat acreage in the new season because of high production costs and low prices. The sample is limited, but the signal for producer economics is negative.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 The southwestern Plains are expected to shift into a much wetter pattern this week, with heavy rainfall forecast for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles and western Kansas. Moisture is needed ahead of autumn planting, making improving soil conditions a short-term bearish factor.

• 🌦️🇨🇦 The Canadian Prairies are moving into a drier period this week before another round of rainfall over the weekend. This could allow harvest progress to partially reduce its substantial delay versus normal.

• 🇨🇳 Possible inclusion of US wheat in a Chinese agricultural purchase package remains an additional supportive factor. However, with no confirmed volumes yet, the market is not pricing in significant additional demand.

• 📑 In CBOT SRW wheat, managed funds sold 8,968 contracts and moved to a small net short position of 4,706 contracts. In Kansas City wheat, the net long position also declined to 45,758 contracts.

• 📉 Trading activity remained extremely low at the end of last week. Despite the supportive global backdrop, Black Sea risks have so far failed to attract aggressive buying.

Bottom line: Wheat is recovering after Friday’s decline. Weaker Ukrainian exports, shifting Egyptian demand toward Romania and Bulgaria, potential reductions in Russian wheat acreage and continued Black Sea risks remain supportive. Better rainfall across the US southern Plains and weak speculative interest are limiting stronger upside.