Market Report 21.08.2026

US crop uncertainty keeps grains supported, but stronger late Crop Tour results raise the risk of profit-taking after the recent rally.

General market overview

📊🇺🇸 The completion of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour increases the risk of profit-taking after the strong rally in soybeans and corn, as later results were better than the weak readings seen early in the week. At the same time, uncertainty over the actual size of the US crop remains a key supportive factor.
💵 A weaker US dollar continues to improve the competitiveness of US origin, with the currency testing three-month lows. This supports expectations for stronger demand after harvest.
🚢 Prolonged export disruptions in Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, could force farmers to reduce planted area next season, adding medium-term pressure to the regional grain balance.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 A mostly drier pattern is expected across the Midwest through the weekend, while rain chances increase next week for the central Plains. In wheat areas, the 6–14 day outlook shows above-normal precipitation across the central Plains, including Kansas. However, the southern Plains remain exposed to heat, while meaningful rainfall in the northern Plains is more likely only in the second week of the forecast.
🌡️🌍 Hot and dry conditions are expected across Black Sea production regions over the next two weeks. This could increase risks for the new season, especially if export disruptions are already affecting farmers’ planting decisions.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are slightly lower today as traders take profits after the fieldwork portion of the Crop Tour ended. Following the strong rally since early last week, the market has become vulnerable to a short-term “buy the expectation, sell the fact” correction.
📊🇺🇸 Better results from the later part of the Crop Tour reduced the risk of a sharp downward yield revision but did not eliminate uncertainty over US production. Iowa soybean pod counts reached 1,362.9, compared with 1,384.4 last year, but remained above the three-year average of 1,295.7. Minnesota reached 1,257.8, versus 1,247.9 last year and an average of 1,089.8.
📊🇺🇸 Post-tour uncertainty could continue to support soybeans on pullbacks until the first harvest reports arrive. However, the final Crop Tour results could trigger partial profit-taking after the strong gains of recent days.
🌦️🇧🇷 El Niño risk is adding weather premium to Brazilian soybeans despite expectations for a modest increase in planted area. According to COFCO, central and northern Brazil remain the most vulnerable regions, as El Niño typically brings drier conditions there.
🇨🇳 A new SinoGrain auction of 290,000 t of reserve soybeans early next week confirms that China continues to clear storage capacity for future arrivals. This remains an indirect supportive signal for US soybeans.
🚢🇺🇸 Strong new-crop sales continue to support the demand side of the balance. For the week ended August 13, soybean sales totaled 85,000 t for the current marketing year and 1.723 MMT for new crop, or 1.808 MMT combined. Cumulative new-crop sales reached 26.2% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 21.4% five-year average.
🚢🇺🇸 Soybean meal sales remain active for the new season, totaling 479,000 t, including 386,000 t for the new marketing year. Soybean oil sales remained minimal at 1,200 t for the current year and zero for new crop.
📑 An expected increase in Managed Money’s net long position in today’s COT report could confirm that the Crop Tour rally was accompanied by active fund re-entry into soybeans. This supports the trend but also raises the risk of profit-taking after the final tour results.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains supported by uncertainty over US production, a weaker dollar, strong new-crop sales, and El Niño risks for Brazil. However, after the strong rally and better late Crop Tour results, the market is vulnerable to partial profit-taking.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn is slightly lower today after strong gains this week, as later Crop Tour results were less disappointing than those seen early in the tour. Volatility may remain elevated because the market still lacks a clear answer on the actual size of the US crop.
📊🇺🇸 Results from Iowa and Minnesota did not confirm the same degree of weakness seen earlier in the tour, although yields remained below last year. Iowa was estimated at 194 bpa, compared with 198.4 bpa last year and the 191.3 bpa average. Minnesota reached 199 bpa, versus 202.9 bpa last year and the 183 bpa average.
🌾🇺🇸 The rapid deterioration in sorghum conditions adds another signal of grain stress across the Plains, although the central Plains may see better rain chances next week. This matters because worsening sorghum conditions are already increasing the risk of tighter feed grain supply.
🇧🇷 Stronger domestic demand in Brazil is narrowing corn export potential and supporting the global balance. According to Datagro, corn production could rise 1.5%, while demand is expected to increase 4.5%, driven by a 14% increase in corn use for ethanol and around 4% growth in feed demand.
🇫🇷 Record-poor French corn conditions remain a strong supportive factor for the European balance. Only 29% of the crop is rated good/excellent, compared with 62% last year, while poor/very poor ratings have reached 44%, roughly three times last year’s level.
🌡️🌍 Hotter and drier conditions across the Black Sea region over the next 10 days could increase stress on corn, adding another production risk outside the US.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export sales remain below the average pace for the new season, but absolute volumes continue to support the demand base. For the week ended August 13, sales totaled 233,000 t for the current marketing year and 816,000 t for new crop, or 1.049 MMT combined.
📑 An expected increase in Managed Money’s net long corn position would confirm more active fund re-entry into the market. After the December contract tested its highest level since late November 2023, the fundamental backdrop remains predominantly bullish.

Bottom line: Corn remains supported by uncertainty over the US crop, a weaker dollar, stronger domestic demand in Brazil, record-poor French crop conditions, and an expected increase in fund longs. Profit-taking into the end of the week is possible, but there are currently few fundamental reasons for a deep correction.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is correcting today on profit-taking and a potentially wetter outlook for the central Plains, including Kansas. As Kansas is a key wheat-producing state, improved soil moisture ahead of autumn planting could remove part of the weather premium.
🌦️🇺🇸 Weather risks for US wheat remain mixed. The central Plains may receive better moisture, but the southern Plains remain under stronger drought and heat pressure. In the second week of the outlook, the most intense heat is expected to shift toward the US Southwest.
🌾🇺🇸 The share of US winter wheat under drought increased by 2 percentage points this week, while 63% of HRS wheat remains under drought, compared with only 14% last year. Significant rainfall is still not expected across the northern Plains next week, although chances improve in the second week of the forecast.
📊🌍 The International Grains Council cut its global wheat production forecast by 4 MMT to 817 MMT, strengthening support for the global balance. The downgrade reflects smaller crops in the UK, EU, and Russia.
🚢🇦🇺 Black Sea shipment disruptions to Asian mills are supporting demand for alternative origins, particularly Australian wheat. This confirms that some buyers are already looking for replacements for Black Sea supply.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales remain sufficient to meet the USDA forecast but continue to lag the average pace. For the week ended August 13, sales totaled 394,000 t, while cumulative sales reached 37.3% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 41.5% five-year average.
📉 With momentum in corn and soybeans slowing, wheat faces a higher risk of a short-term pullback. However, without normalization of Black Sea exports, downside potential appears limited.

Bottom line: Wheat is correcting on profit-taking and a wetter outlook for the central Plains, but fundamental support remains in place. A weaker dollar, the lower IGC production forecast, stronger demand for Australian wheat amid Black Sea disruptions, and the lack of normalization in regional exports continue to limit deeper downside.