Market Report 19.08.2026

General market overview

• 📊 The second day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour again supported the market, with soybean and corn estimates in Nebraska and Indiana coming in below both last year and three-year averages.

• 🚢 Black Sea risk remains elevated. Ukraine struck 5 Russian grain vessels overnight, while Russia attacked 2 cargo ships in Odesa and a Ukrainian thermal power plant.

• 🌍 Despite continued attacks, wheat’s reaction remains limited because Black Sea prices are significantly cheaper than US origin, while rising grain stocks at Ukrainian and Russian ports are restraining a stronger rally.

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🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 Soybeans are moving higher again after weaker results from the second day of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, reinforcing expectations that USDA could lower yield again in the September WASDE. The market is increasingly pricing in at least a moderate yield reduction.

• 📊🇺🇸 Nebraska soybean pod counts were estimated at 1,219.62, compared with 1,348.31 last year and the 1,226.94 three-year average. Indiana came in at 1,318.64, versus 1,376.59 last year and the 1,365.19 average.

• 📊🇺🇸 Today the tour moves into key soybean areas in Iowa and Illinois. If results from the central belt are also weak, November soybeans could test the July high near 1256 1/2.

• 🇨🇳 SinoGrain offered 360,000 t of soybeans at auction overnight and sold 308,000 t. Morning flash sales to China since August 11 have already reached 777,000 t, confirming active demand for US soybeans.

• 🚢🇧🇷 ANEC expects Brazilian soybean exports to reach 10.56 MMT in August, up from 8.11 MMT last year, while soybean meal exports are seen at 2.52 MMT, compared with 2.02 MMT. US soybeans remain cheaper than Brazilian origin, but not cheaper than Argentine supplies.

• 🛢️🇮🇳 India’s soybean oil imports could reach a record high in August due to delays in sunflower oil shipments from the Black Sea. This adds demand support to soybean oil within the broader vegetable oil complex.

• 📑 Soybean open interest increased by more than 15,400 contracts yesterday, while open interest in products declined. This suggests that new speculative interest is concentrating in soybean futures.

• 📈 Soybean prices may continue higher in the short term, but the risk of profit-taking could increase after the tour ends on Thursday. For now, expectations of lower yields and active Chinese demand remain supportive.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is supported by weaker Crop Tour results, active Chinese demand, rising open interest, and potentially record Indian soybean oil imports. Today’s results from Iowa and Illinois will be the key test and could either confirm a move toward the July highs or trigger profit-taking after the tour.

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🌽 Corn

• 📈 Corn is again testing this month’s highs after another day of weaker Pro Farmer Crop Tour results. The market pulled back late yesterday due to weakness in wheat but is starting today slightly higher again.

• 📊🇺🇸 Nebraska corn yield was estimated at 163.61 bpa, the lowest since 2022, versus 179.5 bpa last year and the 173.32 three-year average. Indiana was estimated at 183.54 bpa, compared with 193.82 last year and the 187.42 average.

• 📊🇺🇸 The tour moves through the central Corn Belt today, with final results due tomorrow afternoon. Historically, tour estimates have often been below final USDA yields, so a final tour estimate probably needs to come in below 178 bpa to generate another strong bullish impulse.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall over the next week should favor eastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, and the eastern Corn Belt. At the same time, the southern Plains remain under intense heat, maintaining crop stress in the region.

• 🚢🇧🇷 Rising ethanol production in Brazil is increasing domestic corn use. ANEC expects August corn exports at 5.63 MMT, down from 7.34 MMT last year. US corn remains cheaper than Brazilian origin, although Argentina is still the cheapest source.

• ⛽🇺🇸 The market expects weekly US ethanol production at 1.111 million barrels per day, compared with 1.117 million last week. Stocks are expected at 24.603 million barrels, down from 24.798 million a week earlier.

• 📈 Corn has technical momentum, while tour results have already validated USDA’s yield reduction last week and increased the probability of another cut in the September WASDE. If December corn closes above the July high near 492, the current rally could extend further.

Bottom line: Corn is supported by weaker Crop Tour results, expectations of another yield reduction in the September WASDE, strong demand, and lower Brazilian export potential. As long as technical momentum remains intact, the risk of a deep pullback looks limited.

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🌾 Wheat

• ➖ Wheat was the weaker part of the grain complex yesterday and is still struggling to extend the rally with conviction. However, September Chicago wheat has now posted higher highs and higher lows for five consecutive sessions.

• 🚢 Black Sea attacks continue. Ukraine struck 5 Russian grain vessels overnight, while Russia attacked 2 cargo ships in Odesa and a Ukrainian thermal power plant. This keeps a baseline level of support under the market.

• 🚢 Despite these risks, wheat’s reaction remains restrained because stocks are accumulating at Ukrainian and Russian ports and Black Sea wheat is significantly cheaper than US origin. Any sign of de-escalation could quickly return a large volume of cheap supply to the global market.

• 🚢🇷🇺 Russian operator RusAgrotrans expects Russian wheat exports in August to be the lowest since 2010. This supports the global balance even though futures have so far shown only a limited reaction.

• 🌾🇺🇸 Weather risks for HRS remain elevated, with very little rainfall expected across the southern Canadian Prairies and the northern and northwestern Plains over the next week. This could maintain stress on spring wheat.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Very hot and dry conditions are expected to persist across the southern Plains for at least the next 10 days. Without meaningful rainfall from Kansas to Texas in the coming weeks, the market could become significantly more concerned about conditions ahead of autumn planting.

• 📈 Fundamentally, wheat remains supported by Black Sea disruptions, slower Russian exports, and North American weather risks. However, rallies may stay limited this week until stronger technical confirmation emerges.

Bottom line: Wheat remains supported by Black Sea attacks, expectations for Russia’s lowest August exports since 2010, and weather risks for HRS and the southern Plains. However, cheaper Black Sea supply and rising port stocks are limiting the reaction. Fundamentals do not point to a major downside move, but the rally remains constrained for now.