Market Report 18.09.2026

US-China talks move into focus as harvest pressure builds in the US, while Black Sea logistics risks continue to support the wheat market.

General market overview

🇨🇳 Attention across US agricultural markets is increasingly focused on the US-China summit on September 24. This weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, so any preliminary signals on purchases of US agricultural products could become an important market driver even before the leaders’ meeting.
🚢🇺🇦 Risks to Black Sea logistics remain elevated following renewed russian strikes on Ukrainian port and shipping infrastructure. Wheat markets have so far reacted cautiously, but prolonged disruption to export flows remains a potential source of support.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are trading slightly lower today as traders remain reluctant to add exposure ahead of the weekend and wait for possible signals from US-China talks. The broader upward trend remains intact, while expectations of positive news on Chinese purchases are limiting stronger downside pressure.
🇨🇳 China remains the main source of support. Sinograin announced another auction of 543,000 t of imported soybeans for next Tuesday, potentially freeing additional storage capacity for new purchases. The market is also watching for a possible easing of the current 10% tariff on US agricultural products, which could improve the competitiveness of US soybeans for Chinese buyers.
📉 Soybean meal is correcting after reaching its highest level since November 2023 yesterday. The recent rally has been driven mainly by very tight meal supplies in the western part of the US grain belt.
📉 Soybean oil is also weakening alongside lower energy prices. However, the longer-term fundamental backdrop remains supportive due to the possibility of lower Indian import tariffs on soybean oil and risks of reduced palm oil production in Indonesia.
📑 Open interest increased across the soybean complex yesterday. With prices still near the upper end of the recent range, this points to continued market participation ahead of the key US-China negotiations.
🌦️🇺🇸 Wet weather over the next few days will continue to slow soybean harvesting in parts of the Midwest, but a much drier pattern from the middle of next week should improve field conditions. Harvest pressure could therefore increase quickly just as the market reacts to developments in talks with China.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US soybean export sales reached 1.702 MMT, while cumulative sales are already at 45.7% of USDA’s annual forecast, compared with the 35.5% five-year average. To meet USDA’s projection, average weekly sales of only around 484,000 t are required from here, keeping the current pace strong.
🚢🇺🇸 Soybean meal sales totaled 210,500 t for the current and next marketing years combined, while the cumulative pace remains slightly behind the five-year average. Soybean oil sales reached 4,400 t after small current-season cancellations, while the cumulative pace remains above normal for this point in the season.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly weaker today, but expectations of possible positive signals ahead of the US-China summit continue to limit downside pressure. Strong export sales and China’s new reserve soybean auction support the demand outlook, while weaker meal and soybean oil and the approach of more favorable US harvest weather are limiting upside.

🌽 Corn

➖ Corn continues to trade sideways without a clear direction. The market has spent several weeks balancing supportive global factors against increasing US harvest pressure, and a new major catalyst is needed for a breakout from the current range.
🇨🇳 The main potential bullish factor remains the possibility that corn could be included in a Chinese agricultural purchase package during next week’s negotiations. The current US balance sheet assumes little significant demand from China, so confirmation of large purchases could materially change the demand outlook.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales totaled 1.027 MMT, below market expectations. Cumulative sales stand at 20.9% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 27.1% five-year average. To meet the annual projection, sales now need to average around 1.297 MMT per week.
💵🇺🇸 The US dollar has climbed to roughly a 1.5-month high, creating additional short-term pressure on the competitiveness of US corn.
🌽🇫🇷 French corn conditions deteriorated sharply again, with only 23% of the crop rated good to excellent, compared with 62% last year, marking a new historical low. Harvest has already reached 27%, versus the 5% average, as the weak crop is being collected much earlier than normal.
🚜🇦🇷 Argentina’s new-crop corn planting has reached 11.1%. Current dryness across the Pampas is not yet considered a major risk because the season remains at an early stage.
🚢🇨🇳 China imported 320,000 t of corn in August, up 91% y/y. The absolute volume remains small, but the increase adds attention to the possibility of US purchases during the upcoming negotiations.
🌽🇺🇸 Early yield reports from Illinois, Indiana and Missouri are coming in noticeably below last year. If this pattern continues as harvest advances, the risk of another USDA yield downgrade in the October balance sheet will increase.
🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall over the next few days will temporarily slow harvesting across the central and northern Midwest. However, a much drier pattern in the second week of the forecast should substantially improve fieldwork conditions and increase harvest pressure.

Bottom line: Corn remains trapped in a sideways range as the market waits for a stronger catalyst. Possible Chinese purchases, historically poor French crop conditions and early signs of weaker US yields provide support, while slower export sales, a stronger dollar and improving US harvest weather limit upside.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is weakening again today. A stronger US dollar, improving crop prospects in Western Australia and higher chances of rainfall across the drought-affected southern US Plains are outweighing several supportive global factors.
💵🇺🇸 The US dollar has risen to roughly a 1.5-month high, reducing the competitiveness of US wheat in the global market.
🌦️🇺🇸 The 6-15 day forecast shows increased chances of rainfall across the southern and southwestern Plains, where severe drought and very low soil moisture reserves persist. Rainfall would improve conditions for autumn planting and remains one of the main short-term bearish factors.
🌾🇦🇺 Wheat crop prospects in Western Australia are improving, adding potential supply to the global export market.
🇷🇴🇧🇬 At the same time, wheat prices in Romania and Bulgaria reached roughly 3.5-month highs this week. This shows that the physical Black Sea market remains considerably firmer than futures price action suggests.
🌦️🇺🇦 Ukraine’s weather service estimates that around 30% of planted area has insufficient soil moisture reserves. This creates additional risk for autumn sowing and early development of the new crop.
🚢🇷🇺 russia plans to redirect part of its wheat exports through the Arctic port of Murmansk in October, continuing to explore alternative routes amid problems with traditional Black Sea logistics. The search for new routes itself highlights increasing logistical complications for russian exports.
📉 Trading activity has declined sharply this week, with yesterday’s daily volume falling to the lowest level of the year. Speculative participation has weakened, while importers are not yet reacting aggressively to Black Sea disruptions and remain focused on the next major catalyst.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US wheat export sales totaled 325,900 t. Cumulative sales have reached 43.2% of USDA’s forecast, compared with the 48.4% five-year average. However, only around 236,000 t per week are required from here to meet USDA’s projection.

Bottom line: Wheat is under pressure from a stronger dollar, improving Australian crop prospects and a more favorable rainfall outlook for the southern US Plains. At the same time, firmer physical prices in Romania and Bulgaria, moisture shortages in Ukraine and continuing Black Sea logistics risks provide meaningful fundamental support, limiting the potential for a much deeper decline.