Market Report 18.08.2026

US yield risks move into focus as crop tour results support corn and soybeans

General market overview

📊 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour shifted market attention toward the risk of weaker US yields. Early soybean and corn results from South Dakota and Ohio came in below both last year’s levels and three-year averages.
🚢 Black Sea risk remains supportive for grains after Russia’s overnight attack on fuel storage facilities at the Odesa port complex.
📈 Funds returned aggressively to agricultural futures. Soybean buying was estimated at nearly 18,000 contracts, while corn purchases exceeded 20,000 contracts, strengthening technical momentum across grains and oilseeds.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 The soybean complex received strong support from the first Pro Farmer Crop Tour results, which showed lower pod counts in South Dakota and Ohio. This shifted market focus toward the risk that US production may fall short of expectations.
📊🇺🇸 South Dakota soybean pod counts were estimated at 945.98, compared with 1,188.5 last year and a three-year average of 1,075.8. In Ohio, pod counts reached 1,197.3, versus 1,287.3 last year and a 1,256.7 average.
🌱🇺🇸 US soybean conditions declined by 1 percentage point to 61% good/excellent, compared with 68% last year. Poor/very poor remained unchanged at 10%, while good/excellent ratings are now 2 points below the 10-year average.
🏭 NOPA soybean crush reached 216.65 million bushels in July, below expectations of 221.5 million bushels, but still a record for the month. Soybean oil stocks also came in below expectations and fell to a nine-month low.
🏭 With the marketing year nearing completion, US soybean crush is running 12.3% above last year, compared with USDA’s forecast for growth of only 8.6%. This points to stronger domestic soybean demand from the processing sector.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections for the week ended August 13 totaled 270,000 t. Cumulative inspections are still 18.2% below last year, but have already reached 96.8% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 94.8% five-year average.
📈 Fund buying in soybeans was estimated at nearly 18,000 contracts yesterday. After breaking above resistance, the technical structure has shifted in favor of buyers, opening the way for a potential test of the July highs.

Bottom line: Soybeans are supported by weaker early Crop Tour results, declining crop ratings, record July crush and tighter soybean oil stocks. If the next stages of the tour confirm lower yield potential, the market could gain further upside as expectations for tighter ending stocks strengthen.

🌽 Corn

📈 Corn reached a three-month high today after weaker early Pro Farmer Crop Tour results in South Dakota and Ohio. Both the fundamental and technical backdrop are now more supportive for buyers.
📊🇺🇸 South Dakota corn yield was estimated at 149.1 bpa, compared with 174.2 bpa last year and a three-year average of 162.7 bpa. Ohio yield was estimated at 180.2 bpa, versus 185.7 bpa last year and a 184.3 bpa average.
🌽🇺🇸 Tour scouts reported unfilled ear tips and smaller ears in some areas, while corn development in parts of Ohio was running behind normal. If today’s tour results resemble the first day, prices could receive another bullish impulse.
🌱🇺🇸 US corn conditions declined by 1 percentage point to 60% good/excellent, compared with 71% last year, while poor/very poor increased to 15%. Good/excellent ratings are now 5 points below the 10-year average.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections for the week ended August 13 totaled 1.911 MMT. Cumulative inspections are 26.1% above last year and have reached 95.8% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 85.4% five-year average.
📈 Corn open interest increased by more than 15,000 contracts yesterday, while fund buying was estimated at over 20,000 contracts. This confirms fresh market participation following the upside breakout.
📈 Even before the Crop Tour began, US corn ending stocks were already trending lower. Weaker tour results could lead to additional cuts in the September WASDE. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher.

Bottom line: Corn is supported by weaker Crop Tour results, deteriorating crop conditions, strong export inspections and aggressive fund buying. If upcoming tour results continue to show lower yield potential, the market could extend the rally and strengthen expectations for tighter stocks in the September WASDE.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat has lagged the rally in corn and soybeans, but the September Chicago contract has posted higher highs and higher lows for five consecutive sessions. Fundamentally, buyers still hold the advantage.
🚢 Black Sea risk remains a key theme after Russia’s overnight attack on fuel storage facilities at the Odesa port complex. Risks to regional logistics continue to support wheat.
🌾🇺🇸 US HRS wheat conditions improved by 1 percentage point to 52% good/excellent, compared with 50% last year, although ratings remain 7 points below the 10-year average. HRS harvest advanced to 41%, which is 8 points ahead of last year and 4 points above average.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat harvest reached 96%, running 3 points ahead of last year and 3 points above the 10-year average.
🇨🇦 Canadian farmers are reporting significant disease pressure. At the same time, rainfall potential across the northern US Plains and southern Canadian Prairies is expected to remain limited over the coming week.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections for the week ended August 13 totaled 493,000 t, above the upper end of expectations. However, cumulative inspections remain 19.3% below last year and have reached 18.4% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 19.6% five-year average.
🌦️🇺🇸 Heat will continue across the southern Plains from the Kansas-Nebraska border southward. Without meaningful rainfall over the coming weeks, drought could become an important issue ahead of fall planting.
📈 Funds still hold net short positions, and if prices continue higher, pressure on those shorts could intensify. This creates additional short-covering potential if the rally continues.

Bottom line: Wheat is supported by Black Sea risks, stronger export inspections, weather concerns in the southern Plains and potential fund short covering. Although wheat is lagging corn and soybeans, its technical structure is gradually improving.