Market Report 17.09.2026

General market overview

• 🇨🇳 The US-China summit on September 24 remains one of the main anticipated drivers for US agricultural markets. This weekend, US Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart, so markets will closely watch for any signals on potential trade agreements ahead of the leaders’ summit.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Black Sea logistics risks have intensified again. Russian strikes damaged a cargo vessel at the port of Chornomorsk and a key bridge in Odesa region that is important for access to Ukraine’s Danube ports. This adds further risk to Ukrainian export routes.

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🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 Soybeans are trading slightly higher today after an early test of Friday’s contract high. Optimism ahead of the US-China summit continues to support the market, although weaker energy prices are weighing on soybean oil and limiting stronger gains across the complex.

• 🇨🇳 The key question for soybeans is whether China will remove its 10% tariff on US soybean imports. If that happens, US soybeans would become significantly more competitive for private Chinese crushers and could receive additional demand support.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Aggressive selling ahead of the summit remains unlikely, as the market is waiting for possible positive trade signals even before the leaders meet. This is helping soybeans maintain an upward trend despite the approach of a more active harvest period.

• 🇮🇳 India is considering removing its import tariff on soybean oil. If approved, this could support international soybean oil demand and the broader soybean complex.

• 🇮🇩 Drought in Indonesia could reduce palm oil production by 12-15%. This remains an additional medium-term support factor for vegetable oils, although soybean oil is weaker today alongside energy prices.

• 🚜🇧🇷 Early soybean planting continues in Brazil. Weather conditions will gradually become a more important market factor, as a shift toward drier conditions in the south after next week could affect fieldwork progress.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US export sales are expected at 0.9-2.4 MMT for soybeans, 150,000-500,000 t for soybean meal, and up to 5,000 t for soybean oil.

• 📑 A break above Friday’s contract high could trigger another wave of fund buying. As long as the China factor remains in focus, there are relatively few fundamental reasons for a sharp market decline.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly higher today on expectations ahead of the US-China summit and the possibility of lower Chinese import tariffs. Potential tariff removal on soybean oil in India and risks to Indonesian palm oil production also provide support, while weaker energy prices limit stronger gains.

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🌽 Corn

• 📉 Corn continues to trade sideways, although today’s move has a slight downside bias. The market is still waiting for a new driver, while the possible inclusion of US corn in a Chinese purchase package ahead of next week’s summit remains the main supportive factor.

• 🚢🇨🇳 If China does purchase US corn, the market reaction could be significant because the current USDA balance sheet does not assume substantial Chinese buying. For now, this remains a scenario, but it is helping limit stronger downside.

• 🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s first-crop corn planting has reached 18%, compared with the 14% average. Faster progress is gradually increasing market attention on the new South American season.

• 🇫🇷 France’s corn balance continues to deteriorate. Exports are expected to be 57% below last year, while ending stocks could fall to a 30-year low. Tight stocks remain a significant support factor for the European market.

• 🏭🇺🇸 Weekly US ethanol production was nearly unchanged, while stocks increased only 0.1% w/w. At the same time, USDA is preparing a plan to expand US biofuel exports and remove trade barriers, which could support longer-term corn demand through the ethanol sector.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Heavy rainfall in Iowa continues to delay early harvest activity, but the 6-15 day forecast is turning significantly drier across the central and eastern Midwest. Improved fieldwork conditions could quickly increase harvest pressure once the current rainy period ends.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales are expected at 0.7-2.0 MMT.

Bottom line: Corn remains range-bound with a slight downside bias today. Potential Chinese buying, 30-year-low French stocks, and prospects for stronger US biofuel exports support prices, while a drier Midwest forecast and the approach of a more active harvest period are gradually increasing pressure.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📉 Wheat is slightly lower today after modest recovery attempts over the previous two sessions. The market has shown little reaction to renewed Black Sea risks, indicating a lack of strong short-term buying momentum.

• 🚢🇺🇦 New Russian strikes damaged a cargo vessel in Chornomorsk and a key bridge important for access to Ukraine’s Danube ports. So far, these events have not triggered a significant price reaction, but further logistics disruption could gradually strengthen market support.

• 🇹🇷 Turkey continues to call for an agreement on grain exports. Expectations of possible diplomatic progress may be one factor limiting wheat’s reaction to renewed Black Sea risks.

• 🚜🇺🇦 Ukraine’s winter wheat planting area has been reduced by around 200,000 ha to 4.5 million ha, which is 10% below last year. The smaller area creates a potential supply risk for the next crop.

• 🇨🇦 Statistics Canada estimated total Canadian wheat production 10.9% lower y/y, while durum production is down 12.2%. At the same time, Canadian harvest progress remains well behind the average pace, adding further supply risk.

• 🇫🇷 The forecast for French wheat exports outside the EU was cut to 6.3 MMT from 7.1 MMT previously. This is a bearish factor for the European market and partly offsets support from lower Canadian production and Black Sea risks.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Extremely hot weather across the southern US Plains is expected to continue through Saturday before temperatures ease. Rainfall is forecast to increase across the southwestern Plains late next week, potentially improving winter wheat planting conditions and remaining a short-term bearish factor.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US wheat export sales are expected at 150,000-500,000 t.

• 📉 The lack of a meaningful reaction to renewed Black Sea risks shows that wheat still needs a stronger catalyst for a sustained recovery. However, downside potential remains limited as long as Black Sea logistics risks persist.

Bottom line: Wheat is slightly lower today as the market has so far failed to respond strongly to renewed Black Sea logistics risks. Improved rainfall prospects in the southern US Plains and a lower French export forecast weigh on prices, while smaller Ukrainian planting area, sharply lower Canadian production, delayed Canadian harvest progress, and renewed risks to Ukrainian exports limit further downside.