Market Report 16.10.2026

Soybeans, corn and wheat under pressure as abundant US supplies outweigh demand support

General market overview

📉 US agricultural markets are trading mostly lower today. Soybeans and wheat are declining, while corn is also slightly weaker. Seasonal arrivals of a large US harvest remain the main pressure on soybeans and corn, while wheat continues to struggle with insufficient global demand shifting toward US origin.
🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains selective. State-owned companies have continued purchasing US soybeans, but similar demand growth has not emerged for US corn or wheat. China's unchanged import quotas for 2027 also do not guarantee actual future purchases.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans continue to decline. Rapid arrivals of the new US crop and weaker-than-expected processing demand are outweighing support from another round of Chinese purchases.
🏭🇺🇸 According to NOPA, members crushed just 196.3 million bushels of soybeans in September, compared with expectations of around 203.7 million. This was down 4.5% m/m and 0.8% y/y, marking the lowest level in 13 months and confirming weaker actual soybean demand from processors in September.
🛢️🇺🇸 Soybean oil stocks held by NOPA members fell to 1.053 billion pounds, the lowest level since November 2014. The report therefore sends mixed signals across the complex: weaker crush volumes pressure soybeans, while historically low inventories support soybean oil.
🚢🇨🇳 Chinese state-owned companies conducted a second round of US soybean purchases, booking another 10–13 cargoes for December–March shipment. Combined with earlier deals, total purchases this week are estimated at approximately 18–23 cargoes, or 1.2–1.5 MMT.
🇨🇳 USDA separately confirmed sales of 330,000 t of soybeans to China and 283,450 t to unknown destinations. These volumes should not automatically be added to trade-source estimates, as transactions may overlap. Sales to unknown destinations also cannot be attributed to China without confirmation.
🇺🇸🇧🇷 US soybeans for November shipment were quoted at approximately $12/t below Brazilian origin on an FOB basis. However, high Chinese inventories and weak crushing margins continue to limit buyer interest despite more competitive US prices.
🇧🇷 CONAB estimates Brazilian soybean production at 181.6 MMT, approximately 4.4 MMT below USDA's forecast, but still slightly above last season. This moderates the highest global supply projections without eliminating the prospect of another large Brazilian harvest.

📌 Bottom line: Soybeans continue to decline as seasonal new-crop pressure and weaker NOPA crush figures outweigh support from Chinese purchases. A more sustainable recovery will require confirmation that stronger export demand can absorb the growing US supply.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading slightly lower today. US harvest progress and abundant supplies following the latest USDA report continue to pressure the market, while ethanol demand and selected import purchases are limiting losses.
🏭🇺🇸 US ethanol production increased to 1.065 million barrels per day, reaching a one-month high. However, inventories also rose to 23.942 million barrels, while exports declined. Stronger production therefore provides only partial support for corn.
🇺🇸 Current corn use for ethanol is estimated at approximately 14.9 million bushels per day, compared with an average of around 15.6 million needed to meet USDA's increased forecast. Ethanol demand remains substantial but is not yet running at the required seasonal pace.
🇪🇺 The European corn balance is becoming considerably tighter. Expana lowered its EU production forecast from 46.2 MMT to 44.9 MMT, the lowest level since 1990. This increases import requirements, although high corn prices are also encouraging substitution with other feed grains.
🌍 Global supplies, however, remain abundant. IGC raised its world corn production forecast by 6 MMT to 1.307 billion tonnes, mainly due to the US. Meanwhile, CONAB estimates Brazil's corn harvest at 148 MMT, above USDA's current projection.
🚢🇰🇷 A South Korean importer purchased approximately 134,000 t of corn of optional origin. The deal confirms physical import demand, but the volume cannot automatically be attributed to US exporters.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine's cumulative corn exports reached 2.048 MMT as of October 16, almost 80% above last year's level. However, shipments during October totaled only 121,000 t, compared with 223,000 t a year earlier, indicating that the current export pace remains weak.

📌 Bottom line: Corn is trading slightly lower as abundant US and global supplies continue to outweigh supportive factors. Ethanol demand and selected import purchases are limiting losses but have not yet generated sufficient momentum for a sustained recovery.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is trading lower today. Global demand has not shifted sufficiently toward US wheat, while regional supply constraints are only limiting the scale of the decline.
🚢🇧🇬 Some vessels are reportedly refusing to call at Bulgarian ports due to deteriorating security conditions, creating risks for approximately 5 MMT of wheat export potential. This represents a risk of shipment delays, not a confirmed loss of the entire volume from global supplies.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine's cumulative wheat exports reached 3.337 MMT as of October 16, down 40.6% y/y. October shipments totaled 558,000 t, compared with 877,000 t a year earlier, reflecting reduced actual shipments of Ukrainian wheat to international markets.
🇪🇺 Expana expects the EU's soft wheat area for the 2027 harvest to decline by approximately 2% due to high energy and fertilizer costs. This is supportive for future European supply prospects but does not directly change the current season's balance.
🇦🇺 Crop surveys in Australia's Victoria indicated strong wheat yield potential, with only limited damage from excessive moisture and disease. The prospect of substantial Australian supplies increases competition for buyers in Asia and the Middle East.
🇨🇳 China maintained its 2027 wheat tariff-rate import quota at 9.64 MMT, unchanged from the previous level. The quota defines access to imports at preferential tariff rates and does not represent confirmed future demand.

📌 Bottom line: Wheat continues to decline as global demand has not shifted sufficiently toward US origin and competition from other exporters remains strong. Meanwhile, shipment constraints in the Black Sea region provide support to the physical market and help limit further downside.