Market Report 16.09.2026

General market overview

• 🇨🇳 The US-China summit on September 24 remains one of the key expected drivers for US agricultural markets. In soybeans, traders are looking for continued Chinese buying, while a potential corn agreement with China remains an additional bullish scenario.

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 Soybeans are trading higher today and extending their recovery from the sharp selloff late last week. Prices have moved back toward Friday’s contract high, while resilience early this week keeps the technical picture constructive.

• 🚢🇨🇳 No new large confirmed Chinese purchases have been reported so far this week, but price action suggests the market is allowing for the possibility that China bought into the latest decline. Optimism ahead of the US-China summit in eight days continues to outweigh harvest pressure for now.

• 📈 Soybean meal remains a separate source of support for the complex and posted a new contract high overnight. Stronger meal prices are helping soybeans sustain their recovery even as more active harvesting approaches.

• 🏭🇺🇸 NOPA’s August soybean crush came in below expectations and fell to an 11-month low, but still set a new record for August. Soybean oil stocks were only 1.201 billion pounds, versus expectations of 1.257 billion, down 11.7% m/m and 3.5% y/y to the lowest level since November 2024.

• 🚢🇮🇳 India’s soybean oil imports reached a record high in August, while palm oil imports climbed to a six-month high. Against the backdrop of a weak monsoon, this strengthens support from Indian demand for imported vegetable oils.

• 📊🇧🇷 CONAB expects Brazil’s soybean area to expand by only 0.7% in 2026/27, which would be the slowest pace of expansion in 20 years. This slightly limits the potential for another rapid increase in Brazilian supply.

• 🚜🇧🇷 Early soybean planting has already started in Brazil, meaning weather conditions there will gradually become much more important for the market over the coming weeks.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Rain this week may delay early soybean harvesting in parts of the Midwest, but a drier and warmer outlook afterward should improve fieldwork conditions. Harvest pressure therefore remains the main risk to further upside after the US-China summit.

• 📑 For the November contract, the key technical level remains last week’s high at 1335 1/4. A close above this level could trigger a new wave of fund buying.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is trading higher today, while resilience after Friday’s sharp selloff has restored a technical advantage to buyers. Expectations for Chinese demand, a new high in soybean meal, low soybean oil stocks, and strong Indian imports are supporting the market. More active US harvesting remains the main factor that could limit further upside.

🌽 Corn

• ➖ Corn remains relatively quiet today and continues to trade within Friday’s range. The market has yet to establish a clear direction as strong demand, a tighter European balance, Black Sea disruptions, and expectations of possible Chinese purchases compete with harvest pressure and improving US weather.

• 🏭🇺🇸 Energy price volatility has had little direct impact on corn this week, but it has improved ethanol production margins. Average daily ethanol output is expected near 1.078 million barrels, with stocks around 24.95 million barrels.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Heavy rains across Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin may delay harvesting over the next few days. However, a drier and warmer pattern next week should significantly improve fieldwork conditions and could quickly increase harvest pressure.

• 📊🇧🇷 CONAB estimates Brazil’s total corn production 2.8% above last year. At the same time, strong domestic demand from new ethanol plants in central Brazil continues to restrain export volumes.

• 🚢🇧🇷 ANEC raised its estimate for Brazilian corn exports in September to 5.74 MMT, up from 5.2 MMT last week. Despite the increase, the overall export pace remains weaker than usual because of strong domestic demand.

• 🇫🇷 Agrimer lowered its forecast for French corn ending stocks to 1.46 MMT, down from 1.97 MMT previously. This is the lowest level in 20 years and one of the strongest supportive factors for the European balance.

• 🚢🇨🇳 A potential Chinese purchase of US corn ahead of or during next week’s summit remains a separate bullish scenario. The market reaction will depend on whether a deal materializes and how large the volume is.

• 🚢 Black Sea export disruptions also continue to support the global corn market, although so far they have not been enough to push prices out of the current range.

Bottom line: Corn remains relatively inactive today as bullish and bearish factors are almost evenly balanced. Strong demand, a 20-year low in French stocks, Black Sea disruptions, and possible Chinese purchases provide support, while higher Brazilian production, drier US weather, and the approach of a more active harvest limit upside potential.

🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat is trading higher today after a late recovery in the previous session. Stronger physical demand and global supply risks are gradually adding support.

• 🚢🇩🇿 Global import demand has become noticeably more active at lower prices. Algeria bought around 500,000 t of wheat yesterday, while Pakistan’s tender for 750,000 t is expected to be completed today. This indicates that the recent price decline is beginning to stimulate buyer interest.

• 🌧️🇨🇦 Excess moisture across the Canadian Prairies is significantly delaying harvest. Only 27% of the crop has been harvested in Saskatchewan versus the 58% average, while Alberta is at 21% versus 44%. This raises risks for both the volume and quality of Canadian supply.

• 🇨🇦 StatsCan is due to release an updated estimate for Canada’s total wheat crop today. The market expects around 38.3 MMT, down 4.1% y/y.

• 🇫🇷 Agrimer lowered its forecast for French soft wheat ending stocks to 3.0 MMT, from 3.65 MMT previously. This tightens the European balance and adds fundamental support following the recent price decline.

• 🌦️🇪🇺🇺🇦 Insufficient rainfall in the EU and Ukraine is slowing winter wheat planting. If the moisture deficit persists, weather could become increasingly important for the new-crop market.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Congestion at Danube ports has extended delivery times for Ukrainian wheat to Egypt to around one month, compared with roughly 12 days before the recent export disruptions. This reduces execution speed and the competitiveness of Ukrainian supply.

• 🚢🇷🇺 SovEcon believes Black Sea shipping risks remain insufficiently priced into the market. If logistics problems intensify or persist for longer, the market reaction could become more pronounced.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The main short-term source of pressure remains the improved chance of rainfall across the southern US Plains after the heat subsides. Better moisture should help winter wheat planting and partially reduce the weather premium.

Bottom line: Wheat is trading higher today amid stronger import demand, significant delays to the Canadian harvest, lower French stocks, moisture deficits in the EU and Ukraine, and more difficult Black Sea logistics. Improving weather for US winter wheat planting remains the main factor limiting a stronger rally.