Market Report 15.10.2026

🫛 Soybean Complex

• 📉 CBOT soybeans are trading slightly lower today. Rapid arrivals of the new US crop and weakness in soybean oil are outweighing support from recent Chinese purchases, which have already been largely priced into the market.

• 🇨🇳 The return of Chinese state buyers has improved the US export outlook, but it does not yet signal a broad recovery in Chinese demand. Private crushers remain cautious, while excess processing capacity in China and the exclusion of soybeans from proposed tariff relief measures limit expectations for another major buying wave.

• 🚢🇮🇳 India's soybean oil imports declined 2.2% m/m to 615,000 t in September, while palm oil imports increased 4.5% to 818,000 t. The figures highlight strong competition among vegetable oils in one of the world's key import markets.

• 🛢️🇺🇸 The EPA's proposal to reallocate approximately 770 million Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) could help preserve future demand for biofuel feedstocks, although implementation timing remains uncertain. The market had already priced in much of the expected policy support, limiting its immediate impact on soybean oil prices.

• 🏭🇺🇸 According to NOPA, US soybean crush fell to 196.300 million bushels in September, the lowest level in 13 months and below market expectations of 203.74 million bushels. Processing declined 4.5% m/m and 0.8% y/y, reflecting maintenance downtime and harvest delays. Soybean oil stocks also dropped to their lowest level in nearly 12 years.

• 🇧🇷 According to CONAB, Brazil's 2026/27 soybean production is forecast at 181.6 MMT, up 0.7% from the previous season, supported by expanded planted area. Soybean exports are projected at 117.97 MMT, maintaining expectations of substantial Brazilian supply and strong competition for US exporters.

📌 Market Outlook

Soybeans are trading slightly lower as rapid US harvest arrivals and weaker soybean oil outweigh support from recent Chinese purchases. The weaker-than-expected NOPA crush adds to concerns about processing momentum, although tight soybean oil inventories provide some support. A more sustained recovery will likely require broader Chinese demand and stronger processing activity.

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🌽 Corn

• ➖ CBOT corn is trading nearly unchanged today. Large US supplies following the latest WASDE report and seasonal harvest arrivals are limiting gains, while temporary harvest delays and improving US export competitiveness provide support.

• 🇪🇺 European corn remains significantly more expensive than US origin. The nearby November Paris futures contract is trading well above March, indicating tight nearby physical availability, partly linked to limited Ukrainian grain supplies.

• 🇪🇺 High European corn prices are encouraging greater use of wheat in feed rations. This substitution partially limits the upside potential for European corn while supporting demand for feed wheat.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Rainfall across Nebraska, Kansas, South Dakota, and parts of the eastern Corn Belt is temporarily slowing harvesting. However, drier conditions after Friday could accelerate fieldwork again. Current market support reflects delayed grain arrivals rather than confirmed crop losses.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn has become more competitive internationally. FOB US Gulf offers are approximately in line with Argentine prices and around $10/t below Brazilian offers. This improves the potential for additional demand, although it does not yet confirm new sales.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukrainian corn export expectations remain below USDA estimates. One industry forecast places exports at just 18–19 MMT, compared with 22 MMT in USDA's balance sheet. Logistics constraints continue to limit the availability of Ukrainian grain for international buyers.

• 🇧🇷 According to CONAB, Brazil's 2026/27 corn production is projected at 148 MMT, up 2.4% from the previous season. Domestic consumption could increase by 6.6%, partly driven by expanding ethanol production, meaning not all additional output will translate into greater export availability.

📌 Market Outlook

Corn remains nearly unchanged as abundant US supplies are balanced by harvest delays and stronger export competitiveness. Tight nearby European availability and constrained Ukrainian exports provide support, while larger Brazilian production adds to the global supply outlook. For now, neither side has generated sufficient momentum to establish a clear market direction.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat is trading slightly higher today following recent declines. Support comes from slower US winter wheat planting, Black Sea supply risks, and stronger physical demand. However, global buyers have not yet shifted significantly toward US origin.

• 🌧️🇺🇸 US winter wheat planting has reached 51%, compared with the 58% average. Current rainfall could further delay planting in some areas, but it is also replenishing soil moisture and improving conditions for crop emergence. The weather impact therefore remains mixed.

• 🇪🇺 Higher European corn prices are making wheat more attractive for feed use. This creates an additional source of demand for European wheat and helps explain the stronger performance of MATIF futures.

• 🇧🇷 According to CONAB, Brazil's 2026 wheat production is estimated at just 5.7 MMT, down 27.2% y/y. Reduced domestic supply could increase Brazil's import requirements, potentially generating additional demand in the international wheat market.

• 🇦🇺 The Australian physical market is experiencing tighter supplies of higher-protein wheat. The APW premium over ASW1 reached $24/t, its highest level since July 2023, indicating stronger competition for higher-quality milling wheat.

• 🚢 However, shortages of specific high-quality wheat grades do not indicate a global shortage of all wheat. Standard grades remain available from a wider range of origins, continuing to limit the potential for a stronger futures rally.

📌 Market Outlook

Wheat is recovering modestly, supported by physical demand and regional supply risks. Slower US winter wheat planting, reduced Brazilian production, and tighter availability of higher-quality Australian wheat offer fundamental support. However, broader gains remain limited as international buyers have yet to shift significantly toward US origin.