Market Report 15.09.2026

General market overview

• 📉 Agricultural markets are trading mostly lower today. Soybeans are slipping again after a modest recovery in the previous session, corn is opening weaker, and wheat continues the selloff of recent sessions. After the September USDA reports, market attention is shifting toward the US harvest, Chinese demand, and the US-China summit on September 24.

• 🚢 The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Following statements about an alleged agreement to avoid attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukraine again struck a russian refinery, while russia said military operations would continue even during possible negotiations.

• 💵 A stronger US dollar remains a short-term headwind for US agricultural exports, particularly as the active harvest season begins.

• 🚂🇺🇸 Fuel surcharges on US railroads are currently around 150% above the 2025 average and account for more than 10% of transportation costs for grain and soybean shipments. This is increasing domestic logistics costs during harvest.

---

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📉 Soybeans are slightly lower again today after a modest recovery from Friday’s sharp selloff. The market has not yet regained sustained upside momentum, while attention is gradually shifting toward harvest progress and Chinese demand.

• 🫛🇺🇸 US soybean conditions were unchanged at 58% good/excellent as of September 13, 3 percentage points below the 10-year average. The share rated poor/very poor also remained unchanged at 13%.

• 🚜🇺🇸 US soybean harvest is 6% complete, unchanged from the previous week and 1 percentage point ahead of last year. Several states are already reporting record-fast progress, including Arkansas at 35%, Mississippi at 50%, and Tennessee at 26%.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains the main potential source of support ahead of the US-China summit on September 24. China may continue buying before the meeting, but with new-crop supplies increasing, buyers may also wait for lower prices.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Heavy rainfall in Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin could slow early harvest activity. However, the 6-14 day outlook is turning significantly drier and warmer across the central and eastern belt, which should improve fieldwork conditions.

• 📊🇧🇷 CONAB is expected to estimate Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production at 180.8 MMT, up from 180.5 MMT last month. Another small upward revision would keep pressure on the market from abundant South American supply.

• 🏭🇺🇸 NOPA August soybean crush is expected at 211.55 million bushels, down 2.4% from July but up 11.5% y/y. Crush margins have improved and are again approaching historically high levels, while soybean oil stocks are expected at 1.257 billion pounds, down 7.6% from July.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections for the week ended September 10 totaled 672,800 t. Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, inspections reached 914,800 t, down 15.8% y/y.

• 📑 After Friday’s reversal, the key technical level remains Monday’s low near 1292 in the November contract. A move back below this level could trigger another wave of fund long liquidation.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly weaker today after a modest recovery attempt in the previous session. Chinese demand, strong crush activity, and high processing margins provide support, but harvest pressure, a drier outlook for the second half of the month, large Brazilian supplies, and the risk of further fund long liquidation are limiting upside potential.

---

🌽 Corn

• 📉 Corn is opening lower today, although prices remain within Friday’s broad trading range. Improved crop conditions and the approach of a more active harvest period are creating short-term pressure.

• 🌽🇺🇸 US corn conditions unexpectedly improved by 1 percentage point to 57% good/excellent, versus expectations for a decline. This is still 10 points below last year and 4 points below the 10-year average.

• 🚜🇺🇸 US corn harvest reached 8% complete as of September 13, up 3 points w/w, 1 point ahead of last year, and 2 points above the 10-year average. Rainfall in Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin may temporarily slow fieldwork.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The 6-14 day outlook is becoming significantly drier across the central and eastern Corn Belt, which should improve harvest conditions. This may increase seasonal harvest pressure and encourage farmer selling on price rebounds.

• 📊🇺🇸 Dr. Cordonnier left his US corn yield estimate unchanged at 177 bu/acre, compared with 178.5 bu/acre from USDA. The gap between the private estimate and USDA keeps uncertainty around the final crop size elevated.

• 📊🇧🇷 CONAB is expected to leave its Brazilian corn production estimate unchanged at 143 MMT.

• 🇫🇷 France’s agriculture ministry again lowered its corn production estimate to 8.1 MMT, down from 9 MMT last month. This continues the deterioration in the European corn balance.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections for the week ended September 10 totaled 1.525 MMT. Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, inspections reached 2.174 MMT, only 0.5% below last year and ahead of the typical seasonal pace relative to USDA’s forecast.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Potential Chinese purchases of US corn before or during the September 24 summit remain a separate possible bullish factor. The market reaction will depend primarily on the actual volume of any deals.

• 📈 The longer-term corn fundamental backdrop remains supportive, but over the next several weeks drier weather, faster harvest progress, and farmer selling on rallies may continue to cap prices.

Bottom line: Corn is trading lower today under pressure from improved crop conditions and expectations for more favorable harvest weather. Strong export performance, a lower private US yield estimate, and another cut to French production continue to provide fundamental support, but harvest pressure may dominate in the near term.

---

🌾 Wheat

• 📉 Wheat is again starting the session weaker and extending the selloff of recent days. Even renewed attacks on russian energy infrastructure have failed to bring buyers back, while December Chicago wheat has traded above the previous day’s high only briefly in two of the last nine sessions.

• 🚢🇷🇺 russian wheat export prices fell by $5/t to $274/t this week. Cheaper russian supply is increasing competitive pressure across the global export market.

• 🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat planting reached 8% complete as of September 13, compared with the 12% average pace. In Nebraska, progress of just 5% was a record low for this date.

• 🚜🇺🇸 US spring wheat harvest reached 93% complete, matching last year and running 3 percentage points above the 10-year average.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 After the recent heat in the southwestern Plains, the 6-10 day outlook is turning wetter. Improved moisture could help accelerate winter wheat planting while also limiting price support.

• 🌧️🇨🇦 Wet weather in southern Canada is delaying harvest and has already reduced grain quality in some areas. StatsCan will release a new all-wheat production estimate tomorrow, expected at 38.3 MMT, down 4.1% y/y.

• 🚜🇺🇦 Ukraine’s wheat harvest is approaching 20% complete, while APK raised its production estimate to 25 MMT. This remains below USDA’s 26 MMT estimate.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections for the week ended September 10 totaled 456,700 t. Since the start of the 2026/27 marketing year, inspections reached 5.676 MMT, down 27.8% y/y and behind the typical seasonal pace relative to USDA’s forecast.

• 📉 There are still no clear technical signs that the current correction is ending, and the market needs a new strong bullish catalyst to reverse. If Black Sea risks continue to generate little price reaction, improving US winter wheat planting weather may keep short-term pressure in place.

Bottom line: Wheat continues to weaken as the market shows little reaction to renewed geopolitical risks. Lower russian export prices, slower US export performance, and a better outlook for US winter wheat planting are weighing on prices, while weather problems in Canada and Ukraine’s crop estimate below USDA remain separate sources of support.