Market Report 14.10.2026

Chinese soybean purchases support oilseeds as corn and wheat face supply pressure

🌍 General Market Overview

📊 Agricultural markets are trading mixed today. Soybeans are edging higher on renewed Chinese purchases of US beans, corn is trading quietly with a slight downward bias, while wheat is modestly lower.
🚢 Black Sea logistics risks have intensified following drone attacks on two commercial vessels near Bulgaria, one of which sank. The incidents are sustaining a risk premium in grain trade and increasing importers' sensitivity to the availability of alternative shipping routes and origins.

🫛 Soybean Complex

📈 CBOT soybeans are trading slightly higher today. The main support comes from renewed purchases of US soybeans by Chinese state-owned companies, while accelerating US harvesting and uneven Chinese demand are limiting further gains.
🇨🇳 According to trade sources, Chinese state-owned buyers purchased 8–10 cargoes of US soybeans, equivalent to approximately 520,000–650,000 tonnes, for shipment starting in December. These are reported transactions rather than price inquiries, improving the near-term US export outlook.
🇨🇳 However, the recovery in demand is not yet broad-based across the Chinese market. Private crushers remain a separate concern, while weaker processing margins and subdued feed demand continue to limit the potential for additional purchases.
🚜🇺🇸 US soybean harvesting accelerated sharply. As of October 11, 46% of the crop had been harvested, compared with 25% a week earlier and the 50% five-year average. Harvest progress remains behind normal, but faster new-crop arrivals are increasing seasonal pressure on the physical market.
🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections totaled 1.097 MMT, down 8.6% w/w but up 7.8% y/y. Cumulative shipments reached 5.144 MMT, exceeding last year's pace by 26.6%.
🇨🇳 China imported 11.88 MMT of soybeans in September, down 2.1% m/m and 7.7% y/y. Therefore, renewed US purchases improve the short-term outlook, but China's overall import demand remains mixed.
🇨🇳 At Sinograin's October 13 auction, only 209,900 tonnes, or approximately 40.5% of the offered imported soybeans, were sold. Another auction of 504,000 tonnes is scheduled for October 20. Reserve sales continue to add domestic supply, although the previous volume was only partially absorbed.
🛢️📈 Soybean oil is receiving support from higher crude oil prices and stronger related markets. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.09% to MYR 4,733/t during the daytime session, while Dalian soybean oil also traded higher.
🛢️🇺🇸 Additional longer-term support for biofuel demand could come from the EPA's proposal to reallocate 770 million additional renewable fuel credits across the 2026–2027 compliance years. However, this remains a proposed rule and should not be interpreted as an already implemented increase in soybean oil consumption.
🚢🇧🇷 Brazil continues to provide strong competition for US soybeans. According to ANEC, the forecast for October soybean exports was raised to 6.55 MMT, up from 6.18 MMT a week earlier, confirming substantial South American availability even during the active US harvest.

Bottom line: Soybeans are edging higher, primarily supported by renewed purchases from Chinese state-owned buyers and strength in vegetable oils. However, the rapid acceleration of US harvesting, uneven Chinese demand, and substantial Brazilian export supplies continue to limit stronger gains.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading quietly with a slight downward bias. Ample US supplies following WASDE and seasonal new-crop arrivals continue to weigh on prices, while slower-than-normal harvesting, localized rainfall, and resilient export shipments are limiting further losses.
🚜🇺🇸 As of October 11, US corn harvesting reached 33%, up from 23% a week earlier but below the 39% five-year average. Harvesting accelerated but remains behind normal. Meanwhile, the share of corn rated good or excellent unexpectedly increased by 2 percentage points to 56%, while 91% of the crop had reached maturity.
🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections reached 1.302 MMT, down 7.2% w/w but up 7.57% y/y. Cumulative shipments totaled 8.44 MMT, exceeding last year's pace by 5.32%.
🌧️🇺🇸 Returning rainfall is causing localized harvest delays across parts of Kansas, Missouri, Illinois, and states farther south. For the market, this primarily affects the near-term pace of grain arrivals rather than confirming additional production losses.
🇨🇳 Chinese import demand for corn remains weak. According to COFCO, imports in 2026/27 are projected at just 3.5 MMT, compared with USDA's 5 MMT forecast. US corn also remains economically unattractive to Chinese buyers.
🚢🇰🇷 Physical demand elsewhere in Asia remains active. South Korean buyers purchased approximately 261,000 tonnes of corn. The origin of the entire volume has not been specified, so these purchases should not automatically be attributed to US exports.
🇪🇺 The European corn market remains considerably firmer than the US market. France's sharp production forecast reduction to 7.3 MMT, down from 8.1 MMT, has intensified regional supply concerns and increased the EU's sensitivity to the reliability of Ukrainian shipments.
🇧🇷 S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts a potential 4.5% decline in Brazilian corn production in 2026/27 due to weather risks and fertilizer availability. This is a forecast for the upcoming crop, not a confirmed production loss.

Bottom line: Corn remains relatively quiet with a slight downward bias. Large US supplies, improved crop conditions, and weak Chinese import prospects continue to pressure the market. However, slower harvesting, localized weather delays, stronger cumulative US export shipments, and active South Korean demand are limiting losses.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is trading slightly lower following yesterday's weak close. Slow US exports, larger US inventories, and competition from alternative suppliers are pressuring prices, while Black Sea risks and active physical demand are preventing a deeper decline.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections reached just 304,700 tonnes, remaining nearly unchanged from the previous week and 31.92% below last year's level. Cumulative shipments totaled 6.977 MMT, down 35.87% y/y.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat planting also remains behind normal. As of October 11, 51% of the crop had been planted, compared with the 58% average, while emergence reached 27%, against the 32% average. This provides potential support for the 2027 crop outlook but does not yet indicate actual production losses.
🚢🇩🇿 Algeria completed a major wheat tender for December shipment. Preliminary purchase estimates range from approximately 600,000 to 720,000 tonnes, with prices indicated around $326–326.50/t C&F. The purchase confirms strong physical demand, although the final volume remains uncertain.
🚢🇯🇴 Jordan made no purchase on October 13 and subsequently issued a new tender for up to 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat, with an offer deadline of October 20. This demonstrates continued import interest alongside buyers' sensitivity to offered prices.
🚢🇷🇺 IKAR reduced its Russian wheat export forecast by 1.5 MMT to 42 MMT and its production estimate by 0.5 MMT to 88 MMT. The reduced supply outlook from a major exporter remains supportive for global wheat markets.
🇪🇺 FranceAgriMer raised its forecast for French wheat exports outside the EU by 0.2 MMT to 6.5 MMT, while reducing projected ending stocks by 0.3 MMT to 2.7 MMT.
🚢🇫🇷 Stronger French export prospects highlight Europe's competitive position amid Black Sea disruptions and help explain the divergence between MATIF and US wheat futures.
🚢🇦🇷 Argentine wheat is also increasing competition in the global market. Lower export taxes improve its price competitiveness, while disruptions to Black Sea shipments are opening additional export opportunities.

Bottom line: Wheat is slightly lower under pressure from weak US exports, larger domestic inventories, and competition from alternative origins. Meanwhile, reduced Russian production and export forecasts, Algeria's major tender, Jordan's renewed buying interest, and persistent Black Sea risks continue to support the physical market.