Market Report 14.09.2026

General market overview

• ➖ Agricultural markets are starting the week mostly quiet after Friday’s sharp reversal and a neutral-to-bearish reaction to USDA. Soybeans and corn are trading with limited direction, while wheat is attempting a modest recovery after late-week losses.

• 🚢 Geopolitical risks remain elevated due to developments in the Middle East and the Black Sea region. However, recent sessions have shown that markets are responding more to positioning, weather and USDA data than to geopolitical risk itself.

• 🚢🇷🇺 Russian seaborne exports in August were 62% lower y/y, while SovEcon cut its September export estimate to 1.8 MMT, compared with 2.0 MMT in August and 4.4 MMT last year. This keeps pressure on regional export flows.

• 📑 Fund positioning remains a key market risk. Managed Money already holds record longs in soybeans and soybean meal, while funds have only slightly reduced a very large long position in corn. This increases the risk of further long liquidation if technicals fail to stabilize.

---

🫛 Soybean complex

• ➖ Soybeans are trading quietly today after Friday’s sharp selloff. The market remains vulnerable to further fund long liquidation if buyers fail to quickly stabilize the technical picture.

• 📊 USDA soybean data were neutral to moderately bearish. Yield came in close to expectations, while ending stocks were cut by less than the market expected. This was not enough to provide a fundamental catalyst for extending the previous rally.

• 📑 Friday’s trading volume was the highest since July 4, while soybean open interest fell by almost 11,000 contracts. This points to long liquidation rather than fresh buying strength.

• 📑 The COT report showed Managed Money holding record long positions in both soybeans and soybean meal. If the market fails to stabilize early this week, further fund liquidation could become the main risk for buyers.

• 🚢🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains a key factor for soybeans, but after Friday’s technical weakness, China may be in no rush to make new purchases and could wait for lower prices. The US–China summit is scheduled in 10 days, keeping Chinese demand firmly in focus.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Heavy rainfall this week, especially across Iowa and southern Minnesota, could become unwelcome as soybean harvest approaches. However, the second week of the forecast looks more favorable for harvest weather across the Great Lakes and eastern belt.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export sales for the week ended September 3 totaled 2.637 MMT for the current marketing year and net reductions of 2.4 Kt for the new marketing year, for a combined 2.635 MMT. This confirms strong demand but has not been enough to offset the technical reversal.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Soybean meal sales totaled 42.6 Kt for the current marketing year and 284.5 Kt for the new marketing year, for a combined 327.1 Kt. Soybean oil sales were minimal at just 83 t for the current marketing year and zero for the new marketing year.

• 📈 A stronger dollar and weak technicals remain short-term headwinds. For the market to recover, buyers need to quickly reclaim levels lost during Friday’s reversal.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is trading quietly and attempting to stabilize after Friday’s sharp selloff. Strong export sales and Chinese demand provide underlying support, but record fund longs, a stronger dollar, weak technicals and approaching harvest pressure keep the risk of further correction elevated.

---

🌽 Corn

• ➖ Corn is trading quietly today despite strong energy markets amid renewed Middle East tensions. Friday’s USDA data were not bearish, but they failed to trigger a sustained bullish reaction.

• 📊 USDA showed the lowest new-crop stocks-to-use ratio in five years. This supports the longer-term fundamental outlook, although weakness in soybeans and wheat on Friday limited bullish momentum in corn.

• 📑 Part of Friday’s weaker close was linked to already crowded speculative positioning. By the middle of last week, Managed Money had only slightly reduced a very large long position, leaving limited room for additional fund buying.

• 🌽🇺🇸 The share of US corn under drought declined by 3 percentage points last week. This partly reduces weather premium, although very heavy rains in Iowa and southern Minnesota this week could create localized flooding and crop damage risks.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The second week of the forecast is mixed for corn. The eastern belt is expected to see below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures, while precipitation chances increase in the western belt. This leaves the market without a clear weather signal.

• 🛢️ The recent sharp rise in crude oil has not provided stronger support to corn because harvest pressure is approaching. However, the energy market remains relevant through the ethanol channel.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn export sales for the week ended September 3 totaled 1.929 MMT for the current marketing year and net reductions of 56 Kt for the new marketing year, for a combined 1.873 MMT. This remains a supportive demand signal.

• 📈 The longer-term corn trend remains upward, but further short-term weakness cannot be ruled out due to harvest pressure, a strong dollar and crowded fund positioning. After harvest, the market could return to a demand-led advance if demand remains strong.

Bottom line: Corn is trading quietly as a supportive USDA balance and strong export sales are offset by approaching harvest pressure and a large fund long. The longer-term outlook remains supported by the lowest stocks-to-use ratio in five years, but a stronger demand or technical catalyst is needed to restart the rally.

---

🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat is trading quietly but attempting a modest recovery after losses late last week. The current small gain still looks more like stabilization after the selloff than a full return of bullish momentum.

• 📊🇺🇸 Friday’s USDA data were largely neutral. US old- and new-crop balances changed little, while global ending stocks increased more than expected.

• 📊🇺🇸 US ending stocks for HRW and HRS were raised slightly, while white wheat stocks were reduced. This left the domestic balance without a strong bullish signal.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukrainian exports this season are currently 24% below last year. This confirms weaker Black Sea shipment performance and keeps support in place for alternative origins.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Hot conditions across the southern US Plains will persist through the end of this week, but rainfall may increase across central and southwestern areas in the second week of the forecast. This could partially improve soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting.

• 📑 The COT report showed Managed Money cutting its net long in Chicago wheat to just above 4,200 contracts, while slightly increasing its net long in Kansas City wheat. Fund positioning in wheat remains moderate compared with soybeans and corn.

• 🚢🇩🇿 Algeria is tendering for 50,000 t of wheat, although it typically purchases significantly more than the nominal volume. This keeps import demand in focus, even if the stated volume itself is relatively small.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales for the week ended September 3 totaled 194.2 Kt for the current marketing year and 2.5 Kt for the new marketing year, for a combined 196.8 Kt. This is a weak demand signal for US wheat.

• 📈 The market has recently shown little bullish reaction to Black Sea export disruptions, partly due to improving rainfall prospects in the southern US Plains. However, the longer disruptions persist, the stronger the longer-term support may become.

Bottom line: Wheat is attempting a modest recovery after late-week losses, but the move remains cautious. Higher global stocks, weak US export sales and better rain prospects in the southern Plains are limiting upside, while weaker Ukrainian exports and persistent Black Sea disruptions are restricting downside pressure.