Market Report 14.08.2026

General

• 🌧️🇺🇸 Midwest rainfall remains the main weather story. A storm track is forecast directly across the Corn Belt into next week, supporting soybean filling and reproductive corn but increasing flooding risk in already saturated parts of Indiana and the Ohio Valley.
• 🌡️🇪🇺 Europe is under a fresh 32–35°C heat wave. The warmth is broadly supportive for corn, soybeans, sugar beet and sunflower development, with only patchy relief expected by the end of the week.
• 🚢 Black Sea infrastructure remains under sustained attack from both sides. Even if another ceasefire headline emerges, damaged Russian and Ukrainian port capacity continues to constrain regional export logistics.
• 🇺🇸 Softer July PPI reinforced expectations that the Fed may remain on hold in September. The market-implied probability of a rate hike fell to around 35% from roughly 60% before the labour report.
• 🛢️ Washington is shifting its Iran strategy back toward economic pressure through sanctions and restrictions on crude exports. With China taking more than 90% of Iranian oil exports, any measures against Chinese financing channels could again affect energy and broader commodity risk sentiment.

🫛 Soybean Complex

• ➖ Soybeans remain directionless ahead of the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, with favorable US weather limiting upside despite strong Chinese buying.
• 🇨🇳 US soybean sales were stronger than expected at 1.835 MMT versus 1.5 MMT expected. China accounted for 1.511 MMT, plus another 125 Kt daily flash sale before the open.
• 🌧️🇺🇸 Continued rain across the Midwest is broadly beneficial for soybean filling, although saturated areas in Indiana and the Ohio Valley face rising flooding risk.
• 📊🇺🇸 USDA good-to-excellent soybean ratings are already below last year at 62% versus 68%, leaving less room to absorb additional weather damage.
• 📉 Soybean meal and soybean oil sales both missed expectations, while September crush fell 7.25c to 267. The product side therefore provided less support than Chinese bean demand.
• 📑 The Pro Farmer tour starts Monday and should become the next major price-discovery driver, particularly through soybean pod counts.

Bottom line - Strong Chinese buying is supporting soybeans, but favorable Midwest weather continues to cap the upside. The next major catalyst is the Pro Farmer tour, while canola remains comparatively stronger on tight old-crop demand.

🌽 Corn

• 📉 Corn reversed sharply after Conab raised Brazilian production to 143 MMT, around 3 MMT above USDA’s WASDE estimate, following stronger safrinha performance.
• 🇦🇷 Argentine crop estimates remain unusually wide, with Rosario at 70.5 MMT versus BAGE at 64 MMT, adding uncertainty to the South American supply picture.
• 🌧️🇺🇸 Midwest rainfall remains a mixed factor. It supports reproductive corn in most areas, but parts of Indiana have received more than 11 inches in two days, with severe flooding reported.
• 📊🇺🇸 USDA good-to-excellent corn ratings stand at 61% versus 72% last year, meaning the crop has less cushion if excessive moisture causes further losses.
• 🚢🇺🇸 US demand was stronger than the price action suggested. Old-crop export sales reached 411 Kt versus 150 Kt expected, while new-crop sales totaled 925 Kt, led by Mexico, Spain and Colombia.
• 📉 US Gulf corn is currently the highest-cost landed origin into North Africa and Northeast Asia, limiting the competitiveness of US exports despite the recent price decline.
• 📑 The market remains caught between a larger Brazilian crop and solid US demand. Weather damage would need to become more widespread to offset the bearish impact of the higher South American supply outlook.

Bottom line - Conab’s larger Brazilian crop has returned supply pressure to corn, but strong US export demand and flooding risk in parts of the Midwest continue to provide support. The market now needs clearer evidence of US crop damage to rebuild a stronger bullish narrative.

🌾 Wheat

• ➖ Wheat finished little changed after another highly volatile session, with Black Sea headlines driving sharp intraday moves but failing to produce a sustained trend.
• 🚢 Wheat jumped more than 10c after an unconfirmed report that Ukraine had proposed a mutual halt with russia on strikes against civilian targets in the Black Sea. Neither side confirmed the proposal, and prices quickly gave back the move.
• 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Military activity continued overnight. russia struck Ukraine’s Danube port of Izmail, while a Ukrainian drone attack forced three major grain terminals in Novorossiysk offline and temporarily disrupted rail cargo flows into the port.
• 🚢 ProZerno estimates russian August wheat shipments at around 2.5 MMT, less than half the five-year seasonal average.
• 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s grain export volumes are down 76% y/y to only 201.7 Kt so far this month, despite the country being at the peak of its wheat harvest.
• 🇩🇪 Germany’s DRV cut its 2026 wheat crop estimate to 20.55 MMT, down 11.2% y/y, citing heat and rainfall deficits.
• 🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales were soft at 256 Kt and remained below the pace required to meet the USDA forecast. Mexico, South Korea and Indonesia were the main buyers, while an unnamed destination cancelled 143 Kt.
• 📑 Open interest has been falling after the recent selloff, suggesting part of the speculative short position may already be taking profits at depressed price levels.
• 🛡️ Despite repeated ceasefire headlines, damaged Black Sea infrastructure and sharply reduced export flows remain the more important fundamental story for wheat.

Bottom line - Wheat remains technically fragile, but Black Sea export disruption is becoming increasingly difficult for the market to ignore. With russian and Ukrainian shipments well below normal and European production risks rising, sellers have less fundamental comfort at current levels.