Market Report 13.11.2026

🌍 General market overview

• 💵📈 The US dollar remains near a 19-month high and is heading for its strongest weekly gain in two months. More hawkish Federal Reserve expectations continue to weaken the competitiveness of US agricultural exports.

• 🌍 Diplomatic efforts involving the US, Ukraine and Russia continue, but no breakthrough has been achieved on ending the war or restoring safe navigation in the Black Sea. As a result, negotiations are no longer reducing the Black Sea risk premium as strongly as they did earlier this week.

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🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 CBOT soybeans are recovering today after yesterday's sharp decline. A new sale to China and improving sentiment across vegetable oils are supporting buyers, while the strong dollar and abundant Brazilian supply continue to limit gains.

• 🚢🇨🇳 USDA confirmed a new sale of 136,000 t of US soybeans to China for the 2026/27 marketing year. Regular transactions demonstrate actual Chinese demand, although the market needs sustained purchasing activity rather than isolated sales.

• 🇨🇳 China remains a source of uncertainty due to weak crushing margins and expectations of lower import requirements next season. The next major trade catalyst could be the anticipated Trump–Xi meeting at APEC.

• 📊🇧🇷 CONAB maintained its Brazilian soybean production forecast at approximately 181.6 MMT. The country's substantial production potential continues to limit the scope for a stronger CBOT rally.

• 🚢🇧🇷 Brazil has already set a new soybean export record, with official shipments reaching approximately 106.5 MMT in January–October. Abundant physical supplies maintain strong competition against US origin.

• 🌦️🇧🇷 Rainfall is accelerating soybean planting in Mato Grosso and Goiás, preventing the market from building a substantial weather premium. Excessive precipitation is creating localized problems in southern areas, but the overall crop outlook remains favorable.

• 🌴 Palm oil is recovering after its previous decline, while the risk of a strong El Niño could reduce production by approximately 3 MMT. This improves sentiment across the vegetable oil complex and provides partial support for CBOT soybean oil.

Bottom line: Soybeans are finding support from fresh Chinese purchases and improving vegetable oil fundamentals. However, record Brazilian supplies and uncertainty over the sustainability of Chinese demand continue to limit further upside.

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🌽 Corn

• 📈 CBOT corn is trading slightly higher today after yesterday's decline. Strong ethanol economics are supporting domestic demand, but slower US export sales and the prospect of abundant Brazilian supplies are limiting gains.

• 🏭🇺🇸 US ethanol production averaged 1.130 million barrels per day, slightly below the previous week, while inventories declined to 24.345 million barrels. Processing activity remains elevated, supporting domestic corn consumption.

• 💰🇺🇸 Ethanol production margins are estimated at approximately $103 per tonne of corn, above typical mid-November levels in recent years. This maintains favorable processing economics for US ethanol plants.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Cumulative US corn export sales stand at approximately 24.79 MMT, significantly behind the pace required to meet USDA's seasonal forecast. A sustained acceleration in international demand is needed.

• 📊🇧🇷 CONAB maintained its Brazilian corn production forecast at 148 MMT, including approximately 113.3 MMT of second-crop corn. Rapid soybean planting also supports a favorable planting window for the upcoming safrinha crop.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine has exported approximately 2.35 MMT of corn since the beginning of the marketing year, around 8% below last year's level. Logistics restrictions continue to limit the availability of Ukrainian grain on global markets.

Bottom line: Corn is recovering modestly, supported by resilient domestic demand from the ethanol sector. However, lagging US export sales and Brazil's substantial safrinha potential continue to prevent a stronger upward move.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📈 CBOT wheat is moving higher today after falling to a multi-month low in the previous session. Restricted Black Sea export flows and strong physical demand are restoring support, although abundant Southern Hemisphere supplies continue to cap gains.

• 📉🇷🇺 SovEcon reduced its Russian wheat export forecast to 36 MMT and no longer expects maritime logistics to normalize before spring 2027. Current Black Sea shipments remain significantly below normal levels.

• 🚢🇷🇺 Russian wheat exports in November are estimated at approximately 3.15 MMT, compared with 3.3 MMT in October. A substantial share of shipments has been redirected through the Baltic Sea, while attacks on export terminals continue to complicate loading operations.

• 📊🇦🇷 The Rosario Grain Exchange raised its Argentine wheat production forecast to 24.3 MMT. Competitively priced Argentine wheat remains one of the main sources of pressure on global prices.

• 🇦🇺 Australia is also approaching a large wheat harvest of approximately 32 MMT. However, additional rainfall in some growing regions is delaying harvesting and increasing concerns over grain quality.

• 🇧🇷 CONAB lowered its Brazilian wheat production forecast to 5.26 MMT, approximately 33% below last year. Its import forecast was simultaneously raised to 8.94 MMT, creating additional opportunities for international suppliers.

• 🚢🇩🇿 Algeria purchased more than 700,000 t of milling wheat at approximately $313/t C&F. The substantial volume confirms strong physical demand, while the relatively low price highlights the competitiveness of Argentine origin.

• 🇫🇷 The French physical wheat market remains relatively firm. Rouen cash wheat is trading at a modest premium to December Euronext futures, while an inverted forward curve indicates demand for nearby deliveries.

Bottom line: Wheat is finding support from restricted Black Sea supplies and active physical demand after declining to recent lows. However, large harvests in Argentina and Australia, together with aggressive Southern Hemisphere price competition, continue to limit the scale of the recovery.