Market Report 13.08.2026

Weather

• 🇫🇷🌡️ France’s heat alert has escalated sharply. 22 departments were under orange alert yesterday, while nearly 80 are now affected, with temperatures approaching 40°C. The main crop risk remains concentrated in corn, sunflower and sugar beet, rather than wheat.

• ⛈️🇺🇸 Severe storms hit Nebraska and the Dakotas overnight, with hail of up to 4 inches and wind gusts near 100 mph reported. Further severe weather risk remains today.

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s harvest is 49% complete, with 26.1 Mt collected. Low water levels on the Danube continue to affect Black Sea logistics, but there are no material new developments compared with yesterday.

Markets at a glance

• 🌾 Wheat rallied across Chicago, Kansas City and MATIF after Ukrainian drone strikes disabled three major grain terminals at Novorossiysk. Renewed Black Sea supply concerns overshadowed an otherwise relatively uneventful WASDE for wheat.

• 🌽 Corn was the clear WASDE standout, rallying more than 4% after USDA cut the national yield estimate to 180.7 bpa, below market expectations. The lower yield outweighed a 1.4 million acre increase in harvested area and pushed stocks-to-use toward 10%, a level some market participants are now describing as bullish.

• 🫛🌱 Soybeans and canola strengthened alongside the US complex. Canola also received support from solid pre-harvest export and crusher demand.

🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat was already trading double digits higher ahead of WASDE following the overnight strikes on Novorossiysk, and maintained those gains through the session as USDA made only modest changes to the wheat balance.

• 🇷🇺 Three of russia’s largest grain terminals at Novorossiysk, NKHP, NZT and KSK, halted operations after a large drone attack. A loading gallery collapsed, silos were damaged, a state of emergency was declared in the city, and port loading activity fell to near zero according to Kpler vessel-tracking data.

• 🚢 SovEcon’s Andrey Sizov warned that russian grain exports could fall to their lowest level in nearly a decade if the disruption lasts for an extended period. Even before the attack, ProZerno estimated August shipments at less than half the five-year average.

• 🇺🇸 USDA’s domestic revisions were comparatively limited. HRW production was cut by around 8 million bushels, SRW was unchanged, and HRS declined by only 2 million bushels despite heat stress in the Dakotas.

• 🌾 The market had seen risk of a 15-20 million bushel HRS reduction. USDA lowered North Dakota yield by 3 bpa, but this was largely offset by around 250,000 additional acres and a higher Montana yield.

• 📊 There will be no fresh spring wheat production estimate until the end of September. USDA is currently carrying the third-highest HRS yield on record, leaving downside risk if recent weather stress proves more damaging than currently assumed.

• 🌍 Global changes were also moderate. Canada was raised by 1 Mt, while the EU was cut by 2 Mt and the UK by 1.5 Mt, partly offset by increases for Kazakhstan and Ukraine.

• 🇨🇳 China’s wheat import forecast remained unchanged at 6 Mt, despite market talk of renewed Chinese buying interest this week.

• 🇪🇺 MATIF finally attracted stronger export buying alongside domestic feed demand. At current discounts to corn, wheat has become increasingly competitive for EU feed users.

Bottom line: Novorossiysk has reintroduced a meaningful Black Sea risk premium. Even if terminal repairs are relatively quick, uncertainty around Black Sea flows is unlikely to disappear immediately, while US spring wheat production still carries downside risk.

🌽 Other grains and oilseeds

• 📈 Corn delivered the biggest WASDE surprise. USDA estimated the US national yield at 180.7 bpa, below trade expectations near 182.5 bpa and well below some pre-report ideas of 185-186 bpa.

• 🚜 USDA increased harvested corn area by 1.4 million acres to 88.6 million acres. This offset much of the yield reduction and actually raised production by 13 million bushels from July to 16.013 billion bushels.

• 📉 Despite the larger acreage, new-crop ending stocks fell to 1.653 billion bushels, from 1.790 billion in July, pushing stocks-to-use toward 10%.

• 🚢 USDA raised both old-crop and new-crop US corn exports by 75 million bushels.

• 🇪🇺 EU corn production was cut by 3.5 Mt. Some traders had expected a larger 5-7 Mt reduction. EU imports were increased by only 1 Mt.

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s corn export forecast was reduced by just 1 Mt, despite the USDA attaché having cut its own estimate by 9 Mt last week. China’s corn import forecast was lowered by 1 Mt to 5 Mt.

• 🫛 Soybeans were much quieter. USDA estimated yield at 52.7 bpa, just below the record 53 bpa and broadly in line with expectations.

• 🚜 Higher soybean acreage added around 45 million bushels of production. A 30 million bushel increase in crush absorbed most of that additional supply, leaving ending stocks only 10 million bushels higher at 320 million.

• 🇨🇳 Importantly, USDA left soybean export projections unchanged from July despite China’s pledged 25 Mt purchase commitment. That commitment is not yet reflected in the balance sheet, leaving room for an upward revision if actual purchases begin appearing in the data.

• 🇨🇦 Canola strengthened alongside corn and soybeans. Solid export demand and crusher buying ahead of harvest provided additional support, although the absence of a major weather threat across the Prairies limited the upside.

• 📊 Canola trading volume totaled 44,375 contracts, slightly below Tuesday’s 47,264.

Bottom line: Corn emerged as the strongest fundamental story after WASDE, with lower yield and tighter stocks offsetting the larger acreage estimate. Soybeans remain more balanced, while canola continues to receive support from physical demand rather than weather risk.

Macro

• 🇺🇸 US core CPI rose 0.2% m/m in July, while headline inflation increased 2.5% y/y.

• 📊 The figures were broadly in line with expectations, but inflation remains above pre-Iran-war levels and continues to outpace wage growth.

• 🏦 Markets have reduced the probability of a near-term Fed rate hike to around 40% for September, rather than removing the risk entirely.

• 📉 The underlying inflation trend appears to be moderating, and tariff and energy shocks have not yet broadened significantly. At the same time, weaker recent labour-market data strengthen the case for the Fed remaining on hold.

• 🗓️ The July PCE deflator, together with August CPI and payrolls, remain key swing factors ahead of the September Fed meeting.

• 🛢️ Crude oil edged slightly higher on the day and is now up more than 10% on the week. The Australian dollar and Dow were broadly flat to marginally weaker.