Market Report 12.11.2026

Strong dollar and Brazilian competition pressure grain and oilseed markets as Black Sea risks persist

🌍 General market overview

💵📈 The US dollar remains near a 19-month high following stronger-than-expected US inflation and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve expectations. A stronger dollar is undermining the competitiveness of US agricultural exports.
🌍 The Abu Dhabi negotiations ended without an agreement on safe navigation in the Black Sea. A new diplomatic round in Moscow keeps markets sensitive to potential de-escalation signals, but a rapid normalization of grain flows remains uncertain.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are trading lower today following the previous rally. A tighter US balance sheet is limiting losses, but the strong dollar, weaker Chinese demand prospects, and Brazil's substantial production potential are weighing on prices.
🇨🇳 According to the USDA agricultural attaché in China, the country's soybean imports could decline to 110 MMT in 2026/27, compared with 114 MMT last season. Soybean crushing is also forecast to fall to around 106 MMT, reflecting weaker processing margins and slower feed demand.
🛢️🇨🇳 Meanwhile, China's soybean oil exports could reach a record 1.35 MMT. Substantial domestic crushing volumes and weaker oil consumption are contributing to surplus supplies, intensifying competition in the global vegetable oil market.
⚠️🇺🇸🇨🇳 Renewed tensions between the US and China over the technology sector pose a risk to the trade truce. This is particularly important for soybeans, given the US export market's significant dependence on stable Chinese demand.
🌦️🇧🇷 Rainfall in Mato Grosso and Goiás is supporting soybean planting, although moisture distribution remains uneven across central Brazil. In southern regions, excessive rainfall is already creating localized difficulties for fieldwork.
📊🇧🇷 The market is awaiting a new CONAB production estimate, with the average Brazilian soybean crop forecast remaining near 181.7 MMT. This reinforces expectations of substantial South American supplies.

Bottom line: Soybeans are correcting lower as the market lacks a fresh bullish catalyst following the previous rally. A tighter US balance sheet provides underlying support, but Brazil's large production potential and weaker Chinese demand prospects are limiting the recovery.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading slightly lower after its previous gains. A tighter US balance sheet continues to support prices, but the strong dollar and competitive supplies from Brazil are limiting further upside.
🚢🇧🇷 ANEC raised its November Brazilian corn export forecast to 7.21 MMT, up from 6.02 MMT a week earlier. This is approximately 22% above November 2025, confirming Brazil's strong position in the global export market.
🇩🇪 Severe drought reduced Germany's grain corn harvest to around 4.1 MMT, more than 20% below last year. Significant yield losses have increased the country's dependence on imports, potentially supporting demand for feed grains from outside the EU.
🇺🇦 The absence of an agreement on safe Black Sea navigation continues to expose Ukrainian exports to logistical constraints. These disruptions are limiting the availability of Ukrainian corn on the international market.

Bottom line: Corn is edging lower as strong Brazilian competition and a firm US dollar limit the continuation of the previous rally. However, tighter US fundamentals and restricted Ukrainian export availability are preventing a more pronounced decline.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is trading lower following yesterday's strong rebound. Ample global supplies and profit-taking are pressuring futures, while restricted Russian exports and active physical demand are limiting losses.
📉🇷🇺 SovEcon lowered its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast by another 0.7 MMT to 36 MMT. The consultancy now expects Black Sea shipping conditions to normalize no earlier than spring 2027.
🚢🇩🇿 Algeria purchased more than 700,000 tonnes of milling wheat at an average price of approximately $313/t C&F. The large tender confirms active physical demand from major importers.
🇦🇷 The relatively low Algerian purchase price also highlights the strong competitiveness of Argentine wheat, which is considered one of the main potential supply origins.
🚢🇨🇳 China purchased at least 120,000 tonnes of French wheat and one Argentine cargo. Renewed Chinese buying is supporting alternative suppliers amid constrained Black Sea trade flows.
🇦🇷 The Rosario Grain Exchange estimates Argentina's wheat production at approximately 23.8 MMT, potentially the second-largest crop on record. However, persistent rainfall, cold temperatures, and earlier frost events continue to pose localized risks to yields and grain quality.
🇦🇺 A large Australian wheat crop continues to enter the global market, adding to available export supplies. However, earlier rainfall has maintained concerns about potential quality deterioration in some areas.
🇩🇪 Germany's winter wheat harvest is estimated at around 10% below last year's level, following an exceptionally dry growing season. The smaller crop contributes to a relatively tighter European wheat balance and provides underlying support for MATIF.

Bottom line: Wheat is declining under pressure from ample global supplies and profit-taking following the previous rebound. However, reduced Russian export availability and active physical demand from major importers are limiting the scale of the pullback.