Market Report 12.08.2026

USDA, FSA And CONAB Take Center Stage As Black Sea Risks Return To Focus

General market overview

📊 The market is focused today on the August USDA report, updated FSA acreage data, and the new CONAB report. Volatility could remain elevated, as changes in acreage, yields, and stocks may quickly reshape the short-term balance for soybeans, corn, and wheat.
🚢 Black Sea risk has intensified again after a major Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, which forced port operations to halt. This is supporting grain markets through the risk of renewed disruption to regional export logistics.
🚢 Russia has also threatened to attack commercial vessels from “hostile countries” following US, UK, and EU sanctions against hundreds of shadow-fleet tankers. This adds another layer of risk to regional shipping.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 Soybeans are moderately firmer today ahead of the USDA report, FSA acreage update, and CONAB report.
📊🇺🇸 Expectations for the soybean WASDE are broadly stable. The market sees US yield at 52.9 bu/acre, compared with 53.0 in July, while harvested acreage could increase slightly. If FSA confirms higher acreage, this may offset some of the bullish impact from a lower yield.
🇧🇷 CONAB is expected to raise its Brazilian soybean production estimate to 181.1 MMT, from 180.6 MMT last month, adding another supply-side factor ahead of USDA.
🇨🇳 SinoGrain sold 89% of the soybeans offered at its reserve auction. This confirms active efforts to free storage capacity for incoming supplies and remains an important signal for the US soybean market.
🌦️🇺🇸 US weather remains a bearish factor. Heavy rains across Iowa, the eastern Corn Belt, and Nebraska continue to support crop prospects. Bulls need friendly USDA data to offset pressure from favorable weather.
📊🇺🇸 DTN’s first digital survey of US soybean yields showed 52.1 bu/acre, although the model has no established accuracy record yet. The market is therefore likely to treat it more cautiously than USDA and FSA data.
📉 Soybeans posted a five-week low yesterday but failed to extend the decline. However, the lower low keeps the short-term downtrend intact.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is receiving short-term support from short covering, SinoGrain activity, and renewed Black Sea risk, but favorable US weather remains the main bearish factor. A change in the short-term trend will likely require friendly USDA or FSA data.

🌽 Corn

📈 Corn is receiving support today from the strong overnight rally in wheat following the attack on Novorossiysk. Volatility may remain elevated around the CONAB, USDA, and FSA releases.
📊🇺🇸 Ahead of USDA, US corn yield is expected at 182.4 bu/acre, compared with 183.0 in July, while new-crop ending stocks are seen at 1.725 billion bushels, down from 1.790 billion last month. If USDA shows lower harvested acreage, stocks could fall below expectations.
🇧🇷 CONAB is expected to lower its Brazilian corn production forecast to around 141.1 MMT, from 141.7 MMT last month.
🌦️🇺🇸 A broad band of rainfall is expected from Nebraska through Iowa into the eastern Corn Belt early next week. This maintains a favorable US crop outlook, while Kansas, Missouri, and areas farther south remain exposed to heat and dryness.
🇪🇺 Rain chances remain limited in the EU, while stress on corn crops remains elevated. This continues to support the global corn fundamental outlook outside the US.
📊🇺🇸 DTN’s first digital survey estimated US corn yield at 178.5 bu/acre. However, the Pro Farmer Crop Tour, beginning next Monday, will carry much more weight for the market.
📑 Corn open interest fell by another 17,000 contracts yesterday, while trading volume reached its highest level in a month. This points to active position reduction ahead of the report.
📈 Global fundamentals are partially offsetting favorable US weather. If USDA confirms lower acreage or tighter stocks, the gradual tightening of the balance could continue over the coming months.

Bottom line: Corn is supported by the wheat rally, expectations for lower USDA yield and stocks, and a weaker global production backdrop. Favorable US rainfall remains the main constraint on a stronger rally.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat rallied sharply overnight after reports of a Ukrainian attack involving hundreds of drones on the Russian port of Novorossiysk, forcing port operations to stop. Reports indicate that three grain export terminals were hit.
🚢 The attack followed yesterday’s selloff, which was partly linked to rumors of secret Russia-Ukraine negotiations. The latest strike has shifted market attention back toward the risk of Black Sea export disruptions.
🚢🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russian exports during the first 10 days of August were down 18% y/y, while Ukraine’s total grain exports since the beginning of the month were down 75% y/y. This confirms a substantial slowdown in Black Sea shipments.
📊🇺🇸 Today’s WASDE is expected to show US wheat ending stocks at 715 million bushels, compared with 722 million in July. US production estimates for all wheat, winter wheat, HRW, and spring wheat are also expected to decline slightly.
📑 Chicago wheat open interest increased by almost 16,000 contracts yesterday, while Kansas City open interest declined by 4,350 contracts. This points to stronger participant activity in Chicago wheat ahead of the report and amid renewed Black Sea risk.
📈 Wheat rallies earlier this month repeatedly faced selling pressure, but expectations for lower stocks and persistent Black Sea disruptions support the case for further recovery. The path of least resistance currently appears higher if the market can hold the overnight move.

Bottom line: Wheat is receiving strong support from the Novorossiysk attack, halted port operations, slower Black Sea exports, and expectations for a friendly WASDE. To confirm a more bullish setup, the market needs to hold the rally after several earlier failed attempts to extend gains.