Market Report 11.11.2026

USDA tightens soybean and corn balances as wheat faces rising global supplies and Black Sea risks

General market overview

💵📈 The US dollar continues to strengthen following higher-than-expected US inflation data, adding pressure to the competitiveness of American agricultural exports.
⚠️🇷🇺 A new attack sparked a fire at Ust-Luga, one of Russia's key Baltic ports, which has become an important alternative to constrained Black Sea routes. The extent of the disruption to port operations remains unclear, but the incident adds a logistics risk premium to the market.
🌍 US-mediated talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi concluded with some progress and an agreement in principle on a large-scale prisoner exchange, but without a breakthrough toward ending the war. The continuation of dialogue may reduce part of the Black Sea risk premium. However, unresolved territorial disputes and security guarantees mean that a rapid normalization of grain logistics cannot yet be assumed.
📑🇺🇸 Due to Veterans Day, the USDA Weekly Export Sales report has been postponed to Friday, November 13. As a result, the market lacks fresh weekly confirmation of US export demand momentum.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 CBOT soybeans are trading slightly lower following yesterday's sharp rally. The current pullback appears to be primarily profit-taking after USDA's significant balance-sheet revisions rather than a complete reversal of the bullish WASDE reaction.
📑🇺🇸 USDA raised US soybean yield to just 53.3 bu/acre, compared with market expectations of approximately 53.6 bu/acre, while production increased to 4.574 billion bushels. However, stronger projected exports pushed ending stocks down to 300 million bushels, well below expectations of around 337 million bushels, significantly tightening the US balance sheet.
🌍 Global soybean ending stocks were also reduced to 123.5 MMT, adding further support after the report. The sharp contrast between expectations for higher inventories and the actual stock reduction was the main driver of yesterday's rally.
🚢🇨🇳 Meanwhile, Chinese physical demand remains weaker. October soybean imports fell to 7.35 MMT, down 38% m/m and 22.5% y/y. High crusher inventories, weak processing margins and subdued demand from the hog sector are limiting fresh momentum for US exports.
🚢🇲🇽 USDA confirmed a new sale of 150,000 t of US soybeans to Mexico, supporting the broader picture of US export demand, although a new wave of major Chinese purchases has yet to emerge.
🌧️🇧🇷 In Brazil, more widespread rainfall across Mato Grosso has reduced replanting risks, although precipitation remains uneven across central and northern areas. Excessive moisture in the south is raising disease and localized replanting risks, but the potential for a large soybean crop remains intact.
🛢️ Today's recovery in crude oil is providing some support to soybean oil. However, energy prices have fallen significantly over the past week, while elevated palm oil inventories continue to limit upside potential across the vegetable oil complex.

Bottom line: Soybeans are giving back part of yesterday's sharp gains, but the tighter US balance sheet following WASDE continues to provide stronger fundamental support. Weaker Chinese imports and Brazil's large production potential are limiting further upside. For now, the decline looks more like consolidation after a major market repricing than a reversal of the bullish trend.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading slightly lower following yesterday's strong gains. The market is consolidating after USDA sharply reduced US production and ending stocks, while expectations for larger South American supplies are preventing an immediate extension of the rally.
📑🇺🇸 USDA cut US corn yield by 1.6 bu/acre to 179.6 bu/acre, reducing production by 141 million bushels to 15.893 billion bushels. Ending stocks fell to 1.758 billion bushels, compared with market expectations of approximately 1.846 billion bushels. The stocks-to-use ratio declined to around 10.8%.
📉🇺🇸 USDA partially offset the production reduction by lowering both export and feed-use forecasts by 25 million bushels each. The US balance sheet has tightened considerably, although supplies remain sufficient to avoid a genuine shortage scenario.
🚢🇲🇽 USDA confirmed another sale of 312,700 t of US corn to Mexico, extending a series of large transactions and supporting physical demand following the balance-sheet revisions.
🌍 The global WASDE outlook was less supportive. World corn ending stocks increased to 281.94 MMT, while production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina were each raised by 2 MMT. This maintains expectations for substantial competitive supplies from South America.
🌦️🇧🇷 Rainfall across central Brazil remains uneven, while excessive moisture in southern areas is creating localized problems. These conditions are not yet sufficient to pose a major threat to Brazil's second corn crop, although soybean planting or harvest delays could eventually affect the safrinha planting window.

Bottom line: Corn is correcting slightly after yesterday's strong rally, but the substantial reduction in US ending stocks provides firmer support near current levels. Large South American supplies and a still relatively comfortable US balance sheet are limiting the potential for another sharp upward move.

🌾 Wheat

➖ CBOT wheat is trading quietly with a slight downward bias. The bearish implications of the November WASDE are pressuring prices, while the lack of a breakthrough in peace talks and risks to Russian logistics are limiting losses.
📑🌍 USDA raised global wheat production by 5.12 MMT to 827.51 MMT, while world ending stocks increased by 4.78 MMT to 280.82 MMT. US ending stocks also rose to 743 million bushels, making the November WASDE considerably more bearish for wheat than for soybeans and corn.
🚢🇷🇺 Lithuania has also tightened inspections of Russian and Belarusian grain, potentially delaying cargo clearance and complicating alternative Baltic export flows. Russian exports through traditional southern routes remain constrained.
🚜🇺🇸 US winter wheat conditions improved, with the share rated good to excellent rising to 49%, while crop emergence reached 76%. Earlier rainfall also improved soil moisture reserves across the Plains.
🇦🇷 USDA increased its Argentine wheat production estimate. However, persistent moisture, cold conditions and earlier frosts continue to create yield and quality risks in some central growing areas.
🇦🇺 In Australia, additional rainfall could further delay harvesting and increase the share of lower-quality grain, despite an upward revision to the country's overall production forecast.
🚢🇪🇺 EU wheat exports reached 10.05 MMT as of November 8, compared with 9.89 MMT a year earlier. Euronext also strengthened more than Chicago in the previous session, maintaining a relatively firm European market backdrop.

Bottom line: Wheat is trading quietly with a slightly bearish bias as higher global production and ending stocks following WASDE weigh on prices. However, geopolitical uncertainty and risks to Russian logistics are limiting the extent of the decline.