Market Report 11.09.2026

USDA takes center stage as soybeans hold a bullish breakout, corn tests support and wheat tracks Black Sea risks

General market overview

📉 Agricultural markets are trading more cautiously ahead of the September USDA report. Soybeans are pulling back after yesterday’s bullish breakout, corn is lower on weaker energy prices, and wheat also opened softer. The report is expected to become the key short-term market driver.
🚢🇷🇺 Black Sea risks remain elevated after Russia struck a vessel in the port of Chornomorsk overnight.
🚢🇷🇺 Russia continues to search for alternative grain export routes, while Ukraine carried out a drone strike on one of the Caspian ports overnight. This adds uncertainty around regional logistics and alternative channels for Russian exports.
🏭🇺🇦 Russian attacks damaged a Bunge vegetable oil processing facility in Dnipro. This adds another infrastructure risk for the oilseed complex, although today’s market focus remains firmly on USDA and Chinese demand.
🌦️ The Climate Prediction Center estimates a 75% probability of a historically strong El Niño this winter, with potential to exceed records since 1950. This keeps global agricultural weather risks firmly in focus.

🫛 Soybean complex

📉 Soybeans are pulling back on profit-taking ahead of USDA after yesterday’s bullish breakout. The broader trend remains higher, although volatility around the report could increase sharply.
🚢🇨🇳 Chinese demand was the main driver behind yesterday’s breakout. China has been actively buying US soybeans this week, while the market also reacted to reports that China may remove its 10% import tariff.
📊🇺🇸 Today’s USDA report is expected to show soybean yield at 52.5 bpa, down from 52.7 bpa in August, with harvested area almost unchanged. New-crop ending stocks are expected at 298 million bushels, down from 320 million in the previous report.
📊🇺🇸 Yield will be the key soybean number. A figure near 52 bpa could push ending stocks below 250 million bushels. If the report avoids a bearish surprise, buyers should retain the technical advantage created by yesterday’s breakout.
📑 Soybean open interest increased by slightly more than 6,200 contracts yesterday. This confirms fresh capital entering the move higher, although some traders are taking profits ahead of USDA.
🌦️🇺🇸 US weather is becoming less threatening for soybeans. Heavier rainfall is expected across Iowa, northern Missouri and eastern Kansas, while temperatures across the Midwest are set to cool noticeably. This may limit some weather premium ahead of harvest.
🚢🇺🇸 New-crop US soybean export sales are expected at 1.0–2.6 MMT. Soybean meal sales are seen at 150,000–650,000 t, while soybean oil expectations stand at 0–6,000 t.
🇮🇳 A weak Indian monsoon is keeping attention on vegetable oil import demand. For the soybean complex, this matters through its potential impact on soybean oil demand.
📈 The soybean trend remains higher, with bulls retaining the advantage after the strong technical breakout. The main risks today are USDA-driven volatility and profit-taking after the recent move.

Bottom line: Soybeans are correcting ahead of USDA after yesterday’s bullish breakout, but buyers retain the advantage thanks to strong Chinese demand, the possibility of lower Chinese import tariffs, and expectations for tighter new-crop stocks. If USDA avoids a bearish surprise, the technical structure should remain supportive.

🌽 Corn

📉 Corn is opening lower as energy prices retreat, while the December contract is testing this week’s lows. Speculative funds have been taking profits over the past week, although the broader trend remains higher.
📊🇺🇸 Today’s USDA report is expected to show corn yield at 178.2 bpa, down from 180.7 bpa in August. New-crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.528 billion bushels, compared with 1.653 billion in the previous report.
📊🇺🇸 A yield above 180 bpa would disappoint corn bulls. Harvested area is expected to remain nearly unchanged, while the EU corn crop is likely to be reduced again.
🇪🇺 Problems in the EU corn crop continue to support the global balance. French corn conditions declined another 1 percentage point to a historically low 26% good/excellent, while harvest advanced to 9%.
🚜🇦🇷 Argentina’s corn harvest is almost complete at 97%, adding South American supply to the market.
🛢️ Energy prices are retreating after a strong week, pressuring corn through the ethanol channel. At the same time, higher production costs continue to provide medium-term support for the broader agricultural complex.
🏭🇺🇸 US ethanol production averaged 1.099 million barrels per day in the week ended September 4, down 1.0% w/w and 0.5% y/y. Ethanol inventories rose to 25.187 million barrels, a new record for this week of the year.
🌦️🇺🇸 US weather is limiting some corn risk premium. A more active weather pattern is expected across the central Midwest, while the 6–10 day outlook points to above-normal precipitation across most of the Midwest and Plains. This eases weather risk but does not eliminate expectations for a tighter balance.
🚢🇺🇸 New-crop US corn export sales are expected at 1.0–1.9 MMT. Demand will remain important in confirming a supportive balance after USDA.
📈 The daily chart and global fundamentals remain supportive for corn. Even if the initial USDA reaction is bearish, it may prove temporary if the report confirms lower stocks and a tighter global balance.

Bottom line: Corn is lower on weaker energy prices and fund profit-taking ahead of USDA. However, expectations for lower US yield and stocks, historically poor French crop conditions, another potential cut to the EU crop, and strong export demand continue to provide underlying support.

🌾 Wheat

📉 Wheat is opening lower as forecasts show better rainfall potential in Kansas and cooler temperatures across the southern Plains next week. USDA will not update US wheat production today, so the market will likely take more direction from corn and soybeans after the report.
🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall in Kansas may extend slightly farther into west-central areas over the next week, although the heaviest totals are still expected in the eastern half of the state. Without sufficiently strong rainfall, winter wheat planting conditions will remain less than ideal.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukrainian wheat exports since July 1 stand at 2.031 MMT, compared with 3.55 MMT last year. This confirms weaker export execution and provides support for alternative origins.
🇪🇺 The EU could be one of the first beneficiaries of Black Sea disruptions. Expana raised its EU soft wheat export forecast to 29.5 MMT, up from 28.7 MMT last month, while production was slightly reduced.
📊🇺🇸 Today’s USDA report is expected to show US wheat ending stocks at 718 million bushels, compared with 717 million in August. No major changes are expected in global ending stocks.
🇨🇦 Canadian wheat stocks came in significantly above last year’s level, which was one of the factors pressuring the market ahead of today’s session. This partly offsets support from Black Sea risks.
🌾🇫🇷 French wheat quality remains very strong, although soft wheat production is 4% below last year. This supports the EU export outlook but does not fully offset the production decline.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export sales are expected at 250,000–500,000 t. After a decline of more than $0.55/bu from last week’s highs, even a neutral USDA report could provide some support.
📈 Wheat fundamentals remain supportive as long as Black Sea exports fail to normalize. The current pullback may remain temporary if shipment disruptions continue.

Bottom line: Wheat is lower on improved rainfall prospects in Kansas and expectations for nearly unchanged USDA stocks. However, weaker Ukrainian wheat exports, a higher EU soft wheat export outlook, lower French production, and the substantial correction from last week’s highs may limit further downside.