Market Report 11.08.2026

General

• 📊 The market is shifting into wait-and-see mode ahead of tomorrow’s August USDA report and the FSA acreage update. For soybeans, corn, and wheat, changes in acreage, yields, and stocks could set the next short-term direction.

• 🚢 Black Sea risks remain in the market. Attacks across the region continue and export flows remain disrupted, although futures are still showing only a limited reaction to these factors.

• 🌍 Risk around the Strait of Hormuz also remains relevant, as no talks between Iran and the US are currently scheduled. However, this factor has yet to provide agricultural futures with a strong new impulse.

🫛 Soybean Complex

• ➖ Soybeans are starting the session quietly ahead of tomorrow’s USDA report and FSA acreage update. New-crop ending stocks are expected to be nearly unchanged at around 306 million bushels, versus 310 million in July, but any acreage adjustment could have a larger impact on the balance sheet.

• 📊🇺🇸 If FSA shows an acreage adjustment, the market sees a greater risk of an increase rather than a reduction. Higher-than-expected acreage could add further pressure to ending stocks.

• 🇨🇳 After active buying last week, the market is watching for another possible flash sale of soybeans to China today. Chinese demand remains an important source of support ahead of WASDE.

• 🌱🇺🇸 US soybean conditions declined by 1 percentage point to 62% good-to-excellent, compared with 68% last year. Pod setting reached 69%, in line with the average, while North Dakota recorded the sharpest deterioration at -13 percentage points.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana, and southern Ohio keeps the weather outlook broadly favorable for soybeans. At the same time, the southern part of the western belt remains hot and dry, meaning localized weather risk has not disappeared completely.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export inspections for the week ended August 6 totaled 399,000 t. Cumulative inspections are 17.9% below last year, but have already reached 96.1% of the USDA forecast, versus the 93.9% five-year average.

• 📉 Trading volume was below average yesterday, and this is likely to continue ahead of the report. Soybeans’ inability to build meaningful upside momentum over the past several sessions is a weak signal for buyers.

• 📉 The area just below 1170 in November soybeans remains the key pivot zone. A break below this level could trigger aggressive stop selling.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains cautious ahead of WASDE and the FSA acreage update. Chinese demand is supporting the market, but weak upside momentum, the risk of higher acreage, and favorable rainfall across key US growing areas leave buyers vulnerable.

🌽 Corn

• ➖ Corn is trading sideways ahead of tomorrow’s FSA acreage update and August WASDE. Buyers retain a slight advantage after support held last week, but the market has lacked follow-through over the past several sessions.

• 📊🇺🇸 According to Reuters estimates, corn yield in tomorrow’s report is expected at 182.4 bu/acre, versus 183 in July, while new-crop ending stocks are seen at 1.725 billion bushels, down from 1.79 billion last month. The FSA acreage update may lean toward lower planted area, increasing the chance of a bullish report.

• 🌱🇺🇸 US corn conditions were unchanged at 61% good-to-excellent, below 72% last year. The sharpest deterioration was recorded in the Dakotas and Michigan, while the main pollination period has already passed.

• 🇪🇺 Drought in the EU continues to pressure the corn crop, while record-low water levels on the Rhine and Danube highlight the scale of weather stress across the region.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn export inspections for the week ended August 6 totaled 1.74 MMT. Cumulative inspections are 25.1% above last year and have reached 93.6% of the USDA forecast, versus the 84.1% five-year average.

• 📑 Corn open interest fell by another 15,000 contracts yesterday after dropping 35,000 contracts on Friday. This points to more cautious positioning ahead of the report.

• 📉 Demand needs to offset the more favorable weather outlook, as it becomes harder to materially reduce yields in key states once pollination is complete. In a seasonally weak period, the market needs bullish USDA data to attract fresh buyers.

Bottom line: Corn remains range-bound ahead of WASDE and FSA, holding support but lacking strong upside follow-through. Potentially lower acreage, a lower yield estimate, and strong export inspections support the market, while favorable US rainfall limits buying momentum.

🌾 Wheat

• 📉 Wheat is starting lower again after failing to hold yesterday’s early gains. This is disappointing for buyers despite continuing Black Sea problems and deteriorating US HRS conditions.

• 🚢 SovEcon lowered its estimate for Russian wheat exports in August to 3.0–3.4 MMT, the lowest level for the month in 10 years, compared with 4.5 MMT last year and an average of 5 MMT.

• 🚢🇷🇺 IKAR lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports this season to 44.5 MMT, from 45.0 MMT last month, while its production estimate was reduced to 90 MMT from 90.5 MMT.

• 🌾🇺🇸 US HRS conditions declined by 4 percentage points to 51% good-to-excellent, compared with 49% last year. The deterioration had been expected after a sharp increase in drought-affected HRS acreage over the past two weeks.

• 🚜🇺🇸 HRS harvest advanced to 24%, versus the 19% average, while winter wheat harvest reached 91%, in line with the average.

• 🇧🇷 Brazil could import a record 9 MMT of wheat this season after a weak crop, adding a supportive signal for global import demand.

• 📊🇺🇸 According to Reuters estimates ahead of WASDE, US wheat ending stocks are expected at 715 million bushels, versus 722 million in July, while global stocks could decline by at least 1 MMT. US production estimates for all wheat, winter wheat, HRW, and spring wheat are also expected to be slightly lower.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export inspections for the week ended August 6 totaled 421,000 t. Cumulative inspections are 24.6% below last year and have reached 15.8% of the USDA forecast, versus the 17.8% five-year average.

• 📉 Global fundamentals remain supportive, but price action this week has yet to confirm buyer strength. After yesterday’s failed attempt to hold gains, selling pressure may persist into the report.

Bottom line: Wheat is supported by lower Russian export estimates, deteriorating HRS conditions, expectations for tighter WASDE stocks, and potentially record Brazilian imports. However, weak price action and the failure to hold gains keep the market under pressure ahead of tomorrow’s report.