Market Report 10.08.2026

Black Sea risks return as grain and oilseed markets prepare for the August WASDE

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea logistics remain under pressure following a new wave of attacks over the weekend. Export disruptions continue to restrict grain flows from the region and increase the risk of shipment delays.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine could face a grain storage capacity deficit of up to 11 MMT due to export disruptions. This increases pressure on domestic logistics and raises the risk of supply accumulating inside the country.
🚢🇷🇺 The Russian government plans to fund a $122 million package aimed at shifting a larger share of grain exports to rail. The move shows that Russia is also looking for alternative export routes as Black Sea maritime logistics remain unstable.
📊 The market is preparing for the August USDA report on Wednesday. Expectations for corn and wheat are moderately supportive, with the possibility of lower stocks, reduced production and revisions to Black Sea exports.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 Cool and wet conditions dominated key US Midwest corn areas last week, with rainfall in some locations running 20–40 mm above normal. Cooler temperatures should persist across the northern Plains and Midwest this week, while heat remains concentrated in the southern Plains and southern Midwest. The southern part of the western Corn Belt is expected to be the driest area over the next 10 days.
🌡️🇪🇺 Following July heat waves, soil moisture has fallen sharply across much of Europe, with losses of 40–90 mm in the upper 1.6 m soil layer. Severe to extreme heat warnings remain in place across the Mediterranean, while another heat wave is expected in Europe this week.
☀️🇧🇷 Warm conditions persisted across south-central and southeastern Brazil, allowing sugarcane and coffee harvesting to continue without major disruption.
🌪️🇨🇳 A typhoon moving toward eastern China could damage crops across the North China Plain.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 The soybean complex is starting the week higher after strong Chinese demand last week and ahead of the August USDA report. Oversold soybean conditions, expectations for additional Chinese purchases and SinoGrain’s preparations for another reserve soybean auction are supporting the market.
🇨🇳 China announced another auction of just over 500,000 t of reserve soybeans, continuing to free storage capacity for US arrivals. This supports expectations that Chinese demand for US soybeans could remain active.
📊🇺🇸 Expectations ahead of the August WASDE have changed little. The market sees US soybean yield near 53 bpa, while new-crop ending stocks could edge down to 306 million bushels, compared with 310 million in July.
🌦️🇺🇸 Favorable US weather is already largely reflected in prices, while today’s forecast is little changed from Friday. However, the southern part of the western belt remains the driest area, meaning weather risk has not disappeared completely.
📑 COT data showed funds reducing soybean length. Managed Money sold 29,535 contracts, cutting its net long to 125,466 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders also reduced their net long to 123,311 contracts.
📑 Funds also reduced long exposure in soybean products. Managed Money cut its net long in soybean meal to 77,451 contracts and in soybean oil to 80,681 contracts, showing that part of the speculative length has already exited the complex.
🌱🇺🇸 Today’s crop condition report is expected to be unchanged or down 1–2 percentage points. A larger deterioration could add support ahead of WASDE.
📈 Some short covering is possible ahead of Wednesday’s USDA report. In the short term, the path of least resistance appears higher as Chinese demand provides underlying support and favorable weather is already substantially priced in.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is supported by strong Chinese demand, expectations for additional purchases and the potential for short covering ahead of WASDE. Weather remains a limiting factor, but after last week’s fund liquidation and oversold conditions, the market has room for a short-term recovery.

🌽 Corn

📈 Corn is trading cautiously after Friday’s pullback, but the technical picture is attempting to turn higher. Support comes from stronger wheat, expectations for a moderately lower US yield and the possibility of reduced stocks in the August WASDE.
📊🇺🇸 The August WASDE is expected to show a slightly lower US corn yield, lower US ending stocks and lower global inventories. USDA is also likely to reduce EU production, raise old-crop US exports and cut Black Sea export projections.
🇺🇦 APK-Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s total grain exports to 39.4 MMT, from 43.1 MMT previously, while its corn production forecast was reduced to 29.8 MMT, from 30.1 MMT. This increases the risk of tighter Black Sea supply.
🇪🇺 French corn conditions continue to deteriorate. FranceAgriMer reported another 3-percentage-point decline in good/excellent ratings to 31%, compared with 67% last year, reinforcing expectations for a weaker European crop.
🇮🇳 India may restrict the use of sugar in ethanol production to increase domestic sugar supplies and reduce prices. This would likely mean greater corn use in the ethanol sector.
📑 COT data showed Managed Money moderately increasing its corn net long by 13,547 contracts to 181,946 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders slightly reduced their net long to 150,136 contracts.
📊 Friday’s trading volume was the second highest of the past 10 sessions, while December corn held key support near 458. This remains an important pivot zone for the short-term technical picture.
📈 Buyers have a slight advantage after the market held key support last week. However, a steady flow of bullish news will be needed to offset typical seasonal pressure.

Bottom line: Corn is supported by expectations for a more constructive WASDE, a weaker EU crop, a lower Ukrainian grain export outlook and potentially stronger corn use for ethanol in India. Seasonal pressure and the need for fresh bullish catalysts continue to limit the strength of the recovery.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat ended last week strongly and continues to rise today amid renewed Black Sea attacks and expectations for a moderately bullish USDA report on Wednesday. Buyers retain the advantage after last week’s rebound from support.
📊🇺🇸 The August WASDE is expected to show a modest reduction in US wheat ending stocks, global ending stocks and most US wheat production categories. This could support the market early in the week.
🚢🇺🇦 APK-Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s grain exports this season to 39.4 MMT, from 43.1 MMT previously. A potential grain storage capacity deficit caused by export disruptions could reach 11 MMT.
🇦🇷 Argentine farmers have sold only 70% of the current wheat crop, compared with an average of 86% for this point in the season. This could limit the pace of available Argentine supply.
📑 COT data showed Managed Money increasing its net short in Chicago wheat by 16,906 contracts to 23,786 contracts net short. This creates short-covering potential if the market continues higher.
📑 In KC wheat, Managed Money positions were little changed and remained at a net long of 33,094 contracts, showing that positioning in hard wheat remains considerably stronger than in Chicago wheat.
🌦️🇺🇸 Heat and dryness are likely to continue across the southern Plains over the next two weeks, reducing soil moisture ahead of autumn planting. HRS conditions are expected to decline today following a sharp increase in drought-affected acreage over the past two weeks.
📈 After rebounding from support, September Chicago wheat is showing signs of resuming its July rally. If momentum holds, buyers could maintain control early in the week. However, the market still needs confirmation of the recovery, while potential rainfall in the Plains during the second week of the forecast remains a key risk.

Bottom line: Wheat continues to strengthen on Black Sea risks, expectations for lower stocks in WASDE, short-covering potential and US weather concerns. The technical picture has improved after the rebound from support, giving buyers the advantage at the start of the week.