Market Report 09.11.2026

USDA reports and Abu Dhabi peace talks drive grain market uncertainty as soybeans, corn and wheat face mixed fundamentals

🌍 General market overview

🛢️📉 Crude oil prices are falling sharply again today as diplomatic efforts concerning Iran intensify, weakening support for biofuels and vegetable oils.
📑🇺🇸 The key fundamental risk for agricultural markets is the release of USDA's Crop Production and WASDE reports on November 10. The market expects higher US soybean yields and ending stocks, a slight reduction in corn yields, and mainly demand-side adjustments for wheat.
🌍 The US–Ukraine–Russia talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11 remain the main geopolitical driver for grain markets. Expectations of de-escalation are already reducing the Black Sea risk premium, particularly in wheat, although no agreement has been reached and logistics have not fully normalized.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 CBOT soybeans are trading quietly with a slight upward bias. Strong US export demand and a partial recovery from the previous decline support prices, while expectations of higher US production and stocks, rapid Brazilian planting, and weaker vegetable oils limit gains.
📊 Funds continue to reduce long exposure aggressively. Over the latest reporting week, the Managed Money net long position fell by 52,600 contracts to 132,800. Much of the recent decline was driven by long liquidation, but the remaining large net long leaves the market vulnerable to further selling ahead of USDA.
🚢🇨🇳 US export demand remains exceptionally strong. USDA confirmed a new sale of 136,000 t of soybeans to China, while total export commitments reached 30.23 MMT, up 76% y/y and already equivalent to 66% of USDA's annual export forecast.
📑🇺🇸 Ahead of the November 10 reports, the market expects US soybean yields to increase to 53.5 bpa, production to 4.596 billion bushels, and ending stocks to approximately 332 million bushels. The wide range of stock estimates makes soybeans particularly sensitive to USDA's actual figures.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazilian soybean planting accelerated to 64% complete, compared with 53% a week earlier and 61% last year. Localized dryness in central regions and excess moisture in the south persist, but neither currently poses a major threat to expectations for a large crop.
🛢️📉 The external backdrop remains negative for soybean oil. Palm oil lost approximately 9% over the past week, while soybean oil declined around 5.5%. Renewed weakness in crude oil further reduces support from the biofuel sector.

Bottom line: Soybeans are edging higher, but trading remains cautious ahead of USDA. Strong physical demand supports prices, while expectations of ample supply and the risk of further fund liquidation continue to limit upside potential.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is trading quietly with a slight downward bias. Ample US supplies weigh on prices, while recent export sales and expectations of slightly lower US yields help limit losses.
📊 Managed Money reduced its net position by approximately 78,800 contracts over the week, shifting to a net short of around 22,900 contracts. The previously excessive long exposure has largely been cleared, significantly reducing the risk of another large wave of forced liquidation.
🚢🇺🇸 USDA confirmed a new sale of 101,000 t of corn to an unknown destination, following major deals with Mexico and South Korea. However, total export commitments remain approximately 34% below last year, meaning the recent improvement in demand has not yet eliminated the seasonal deficit.
📑🇺🇸 Ahead of Crop Production, the market expects US corn yields to decline to 180.6 bpa, with production estimated at approximately 15.98 billion bushels. Ending stocks are forecast to remain nearly unchanged, suggesting that even a slightly smaller crop would leave the US balance sheet relatively comfortable.
🚜🇧🇷 First-crop corn planting in Brazil's center-south reached 71% complete, compared with 63% a week earlier. Rapid soybean planting also supports prospects for a timely start to the safrinha crop, which remains a major medium-term supply pressure factor.
🇺🇦 APK-Inform lowered its Ukrainian corn production estimate by 2.7 MMT to 29.1 MMT. Combined with logistics restrictions, this reduces Ukraine's potential exportable supply and provides some support to competing origins.
🚢🇪🇬 Egypt imported no Ukrainian corn in October, while total corn imports fell to 777,300 t, with Brazil supplying approximately 96%. This highlights both weaker overall import demand and Brazil's strong competitive position.

Bottom line: Corn remains under modest pressure as ample US supplies outweigh support from recent export sales and expectations of a slightly smaller crop. Following the sharp reduction in fund long positions, the risk of another major liquidation wave has diminished, potentially limiting further downside.

🌾 Wheat

📈 CBOT wheat is trading quietly with modest gains. Lower Russian export forecasts and a large speculative short position provide support, but expectations of progress in the November 10–11 talks and weaker demand limit a stronger recovery.
🌍 The Abu Dhabi negotiations remain the main short-term driver for wheat. The market is pricing in the possibility of de-escalation and improved Black Sea logistics, although no agreement has been reached. These expectations have already pushed Chicago SRW wheat to fresh local lows.
📉🇷🇺 SovEcon lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 by another 0.7 MMT to 36 MMT, reflecting expectations of a slower recovery in Black Sea navigation. Baltic routes are partially offsetting losses but have not restored Russia's full export capacity.
🚢🇪🇬 Ukraine increased wheat shipments to Egypt to 269,100 t in October, while Russia supplied 403,200 t, including shipments through Baltic ports. However, Egypt's total wheat imports during July–October fell to 2.37 MMT, compared with 5.26 MMT last year, confirming weaker demand from a major global buyer.
📊 Funds continue to expand short exposure, with the Managed Money net short in Chicago SRW wheat reaching 88,700 contracts. This reinforces the bearish trend but also substantially increases short-covering potential if the talks fail or Black Sea logistics deteriorate again.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat export demand remains weak. Accumulated sales stand at 12.18 MMT, down 28% y/y and below the normal seasonal pace. Ahead of WASDE, the market expects a slight increase in US ending stocks to approximately 744 million bushels.
🚜🇫🇷🇺🇦 Soft wheat planting in France accelerated to 84% complete, compared with 77% last year, while APK-Inform raised its Ukrainian wheat production estimate to 26.5 MMT. Both developments slightly improve European and Black Sea supply prospects.
🇦🇷 Argentina expects its second-largest wheat harvest on record at approximately 23.8 MMT, although rainfall, disease pressure, and frost damage pose localized yield and quality risks.
🇦🇺 A drier weather outlook in Australia is helping accelerate harvesting, despite quality problems already reported in some areas.

Bottom line: Wheat is attempting to hold modest gains, supported by lower Russian export forecasts and a large speculative short position. However, expectations of improved Black Sea logistics following the talks and weaker demand continue to limit upside potential.