Market Report 09.10.2026

General market overview

• 📑📊 Ahead of today’s WASDE, agricultural markets remain cautious, with traders avoiding aggressive position-building before USDA releases its updated estimates. Soybeans are slightly higher after yesterday’s decline, while corn and wheat are trading quietly and are nearly unchanged.

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 CBOT soybeans are slightly higher today after yesterday’s decline. The market is adjusting positions ahead of USDA, while faster US harvesting and the absence of confirmation of another major wave of Chinese buying are limiting the recovery.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US soybean export sales totaled 549,400 t, the lowest since the start of the current marketing year and 40.25% below last year. This reinforces caution over near-term external demand.

• 🇨🇳 Of the 382,900 t of sales reported to China, around 370,000 t were simply switched from the “unknown destination” category. The figures therefore mostly clarify the destination of previously booked business rather than confirm a new surge in Chinese demand.

• 🇺🇸 At the same time, cumulative US soybean export commitments remain around 80% above last year, while USDA currently forecasts seasonal exports to rise by only 11%. The weak latest week therefore does not yet change the stronger overall seasonal picture.

• 🇺🇸🇧🇷 US Gulf soybeans for shipment through year-end are priced around 10–20 cents/bu below Brazilian origin, supporting near-term US export prospects. However, this advantage could disappear quickly once Brazil’s new crop reaches the market.

• 🏭 In soybean products, headline weekly sales were heavily influenced by commitments being shifted between marketing years. Excluding those adjustments, new sales were approximately 185,000–186,000 t of soybean meal and only around 1,200 t of soybean oil.

• 🇨🇳 Sinograin plans to auction 518,000 t of imported soybeans from state reserves on October 13. This could temporarily increase domestic availability in China, although the actual impact will depend on how much is sold.

• 📑🇺🇸 Ahead of WASDE, the market expects US soybean yield to increase slightly to 52.9 bpa and production to 4.538 billion bushels, while ending stocks could decline to 308 million bushels. Market reaction will therefore depend not only on crop estimates but also on revisions to exports and crush.

Bottom line: Soybeans are recovering slightly after yesterday’s decline, but movement remains limited ahead of WASDE. Strong cumulative export commitments and competitive nearby US offers support the market, while weak recent sales, the absence of a new major Chinese buying wave, and faster US harvesting limit upside.

🌽 Corn

• ➖ CBOT corn is trading quietly and is nearly unchanged after a modest decline yesterday. The market is waiting for WASDE, where a smaller US crop estimate could be accompanied by higher ending stocks.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales totaled 769,500 t, up 43.6% w/w but down 65.9% y/y. Mexico, Colombia, and Japan were the largest buyers.

• 🇺🇸 Cumulative US export commitments remain around 34% below last year. The improvement in the latest week therefore does not yet change the weaker seasonal export picture.

• 📑🇺🇸 A key feature of the expected WASDE is that a smaller crop may not translate into smaller stocks. Production is expected to fall by 67 million bushels to 15.733 billion, while ending stocks could rise by 126 million to 1.693 billion bushels due to larger beginning inventories.

• 🇺🇸 Higher beginning stocks are linked to an expected downward revision in old-crop feed and residual use. This would leave more corn available at the start of the new season and partially offset support from a possible production cut.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 US harvest weather remains mixed. Rain associated with the remnants of Isaias could delay fieldwork in Indiana and Ohio, while most of the Corn Belt should see dry conditions over the coming days, allowing harvest to accelerate.

• 🚢🇰🇷 South Korea’s MFG purchased around 135,000 t of corn in two consignments for delivery from late January into early February. Origin may be the US, South America, or South Africa, so the purchase should not automatically be counted as US export demand.

• 🇦🇷 The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop at 64 MMT, 1 MMT above USDA’s current estimate. This strengthens the outlook for South American competition in global markets.

Bottom line: Corn is nearly unchanged ahead of WASDE. A possible reduction in the US crop and fresh physical demand from South Korea provide support, while larger beginning stocks, weaker cumulative US export commitments, and faster harvesting across much of the US limit upside.

🌾 Wheat

• ➖ Wheat is trading quietly and is nearly unchanged after yesterday’s weak session. Caution ahead of WASDE and expectations for slightly higher US stocks are limiting buying, while Black Sea risks and selected physical demand signals provide support.

• 🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US wheat export sales totaled 451,600 t, a solid result for the current season but around half the volume seen in the same week last year. The Philippines, South Korea, and Japan were the largest buyers.

• 🇺🇸 Cumulative US wheat export commitments remain around 32% below last year. The stronger latest week therefore does not yet indicate a sustained acceleration in the US export program.

• 🇹🇼 Taiwanese flour millers completed the purchase of 105,800 t of US wheat, providing an additional positive signal for physical demand.

• 🚢🇫🇷 European exports also remain active. Around 232,000 t of soft wheat was loaded at Rouen for Morocco during the week, confirming Europe’s ability to partially replace Black Sea grain in selected destinations.

• 🇺🇦 Ukraine’s wheat production estimate has been raised to 25.6 MMT, while the baseline export forecast stands at only around 12 MMT. A substantial domestic surplus is therefore facing limited export capacity and higher logistics costs.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Redirecting Ukrainian cargoes toward the Danube and land routes raises transportation costs, while incoming corn and oilseed volumes intensify competition for logistics and handling capacity. This limits the ability to quickly convert the large wheat crop into export supply.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 The weather outlook for US winter wheat has improved somewhat. The share of the crop area affected by drought declined by 4 percentage points to 53%. Previous rainfall improved soil moisture, while better conditions are supporting planting and emergence.

• 🇫🇷 In France, wheat planting was 4% complete as of October 5, compared with 5% last year. The delay remains minor and does not yet represent a meaningful production risk.

• 📑🇺🇸 Ahead of WASDE, US wheat ending stocks are expected to increase by around 4 million bushels to 721 million. This remains one of the main factors limiting aggressive buying ahead of the report.

Bottom line: Wheat is trading quietly and is nearly unchanged. Better weekly US sales, Taiwan’s purchase, active European shipments, and constraints on Ukrainian exports provide support, while weaker cumulative US commitments, improving winter wheat weather, and expectations for higher US stocks limit prices.