Market Report 08.09.2026

Geopolitical risk and heavy fund buying keep grain and oilseed markets supported

General market overview

📈 Agricultural markets remain sensitive to geopolitics following renewed escalation around Iran and Russia’s war against Ukraine. US-led talks delivered no major breakthrough, keeping a risk premium in grain markets.
📑 The latest COT report showed a sharp increase in speculative longs across soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn and wheat. This supports the upward trend but also increases the risk of profit-taking if prices fail to hold recent levels.
🛢️ Strong energy prices continue to provide additional support to agricultural markets through biofuel demand and broader commodity-market strength. The effect is particularly important for corn and soybean oil.

🫛 Soybean complex

➖ Soybeans initially moved higher overnight but failed to break last week’s highs. The market remains volatile and uneven. The broader trend is still higher, but prices have effectively stalled over the past several sessions.
📑 The COT report showed the largest Managed Money net long in soybeans since 2012. Funds bought 42,929 contracts, increasing their net long to 241,183 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders added 45,615 contracts, taking their net long to 227,485 contracts.
📑 In soybean meal, Managed Money reached a new record net long of 158,741 contracts after buying 61,705 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders also set a new record net long of 202,241 contracts.
🛢️ In soybean oil, Managed Money increased its net long by 21,470 contracts to 109,912 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders added 26,358 contracts, taking their net long to 139,184 contracts.
🚢🇨🇳 Chinese demand remains the main source of support for soybeans. Daily flash sales to China or unknown destinations were reported throughout last week. However, weak crushing margins in China are limiting expectations for a rapid increase in demand from private processors.
🚢🇧🇷 High Brazilian prices, driven by competition between exporters and processors for supplies, are pushing China to look more actively at Argentina, Paraguay and US soybeans purchased through state buyer SinoGrain. This supports US origin, although China’s August soybean purchases were 1.1% lower y/y.
🚜🇧🇷 Soybean planting has already started in the southern Brazilian state of Paraná, making Brazilian weather an increasingly important factor in the coming weeks. The market is gradually shifting its attention toward the new South American season.
🇮🇳 USDA FAS lowered its estimate for India’s soybean production to 9.6 MMT, compared with the previous USDA estimate of 11.5 MMT. This provides support to the global oilseed balance amid a weak monsoon.
🌦️🇺🇸 US weather is becoming less clearly supportive for soybeans. Rainfall across parts of the central and eastern growing regions may benefit crops, while cooler Midwest temperatures reduce heat stress. Harvest weather will remain an important market factor in the coming weeks.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains in an upward trend, but momentum has stalled due to crowded speculative positioning and weak Chinese crushing margins. Steady Chinese buying, a lower Indian soybean crop estimate and firm global oilseed demand provide underlying support, but a break below last week’s lows could trigger fund selling.

🌽 Corn

📈 Corn is starting slightly higher today, supported by the broader grain complex, strong energy prices and the existing upward trend. However, the very large speculative long may limit further upside in the short term.
📑 The COT report showed another extreme Managed Money long in corn. Funds bought 54,549 contracts, increasing their net long to 431,062 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders bought 81,689 contracts, taking their net long to 428,628 contracts.
🇪🇺 The EU could become a significant corn importer in the coming months following deterioration in its domestic crop outlook. This supports global demand for alternative origins.
🇫🇷 Poor French crop conditions continue to highlight problems with European production.
🚜🇧🇷 Brazil’s first-crop corn planting reached 17%, compared with 12% a year earlier. At the same time, Brazilian corn exports in August were 32% lower y/y, partly due to significantly higher domestic corn use for ethanol.
🌦️🇺🇸 US weather is becoming less threatening for corn. Rainfall this week will focus on the eastern Corn Belt, Iowa, Missouri and eastern Kansas, while temperatures across the northern Plains and Midwest are expected to fall below normal. Heat will persist longer across the southern Plains.
🌎 El Niño remains a medium-term supportive factor for corn because of potential risks to future South American production. This will become increasingly relevant for demand expectations after the US harvest.
📈 The fundamental backdrop does not provide a clear reason for a deep corn selloff, but extreme speculative positioning could restrict further gains in the near term. The market remains supported by expectations for strong demand after harvest.

Bottom line: Corn maintains its upward trend with support from wheat, strong energy prices, worsening European crop prospects, lower Brazilian exports and expectations for strong demand. The key risk is the exceptionally large fund long, which could limit the rally or amplify a correction if the market receives a weak signal.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat is trading sharply higher today, although prices have retreated from overnight highs after talks on Ukraine and Russia produced no meaningful progress. The market remains highly sensitive to any signals affecting Black Sea exports.
🚢🇺🇦 Freight rates from Ukraine’s Danube ports are moving higher, increasing the cost of alternative export routes. This keeps logistical support under Ukrainian wheat prices and complicates shipment execution.
🚢🇷🇺 Latvia and Lithuania are expected to discuss a full ban on Russian grain transit through their ports early this week. Any restriction on the Baltic route could increase uncertainty around Russian exports.
📑 The COT report showed Managed Money in Chicago wheat reversing from a net short to a 14,654-contract net long after buying 28,825 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders also moved into a net long of 20,213 contracts after buying 31,837 contracts.
📑 In KC wheat, Managed Money increased its existing net long by 6,222 contracts to 50,284 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders bought 9,680 contracts, taking their net long to 31,214 contracts.
🌦️🇺🇸 Drought across the southern US Plains remains a key source of support for wheat, although forecasts are beginning to show an end to the most extreme heat. Oklahoma and Texas are expected to receive only limited rainfall, while Kansas has better rain chances mainly in the 6-14 day outlook.
🚢🇰🇷 South Korea is tendering for 100,000 t of US and Canadian wheat, keeping attention on import demand for higher-quality origins.
📈 Last week’s wheat rally struggled to hold its gains, and that pattern could repeat as the southern Plains forecast becomes less extreme. However, if attacks affecting Black Sea exports continue, the scope for a significant market decline is likely to remain limited.

Bottom line: Wheat is rising on the lack of progress in negotiations, higher costs for alternative Ukrainian export routes, potential risks to Russian transit through the Baltics and the shift of funds into net long positions. Weather risks across the southern US Plains remain supportive, although easing heat could limit further upside.