Market Report 07.10.2026

Stronger dollar weighs on grain markets ahead of WASDE as high oil prices support biofuel demand

General market overview

💵🇺🇸 A stronger US dollar is pressuring US agricultural commodities today and reducing their competitiveness in global markets. Ahead of Friday’s WASDE, it is also adding to market caution.
🛢️ High crude oil prices are improving the fundamental backdrop for biofuels. Brent is above $100/bbl, while WTI is approaching $90/bbl, supporting the economics of vegetable oils in biofuel production and corn demand from the ethanol sector.
🚢 Black Sea logistics risks remain elevated after attacks on two merchant vessels in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone and renewed strikes on port and ship-repair infrastructure in the Odesa region. At the same time, Russia is partially redirecting agricultural exports through the Baltic, allowing some trade flows to recover.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 CBOT soybeans are slightly higher after Tuesday’s strong rally, although trading has become considerably calmer. Delayed US harvesting and strong domestic crush demand are providing support, while caution ahead of WASDE and highly competitive Brazilian soybeans are limiting further upside.
🏭🇺🇸 US domestic soybean demand remains strong. Crushers used around 210 million bushels in August, approximately 6% more y/y, while expanding processing capacity in North Dakota is adding further demand for physical soybeans.
🚢🇺🇸 Bean exports remain much weaker. The US shipped 1.465 MMT of soybeans in August, down 36.1% y/y. At the same time, soybean meal exports reached an August record of 1.366 MMT, highlighting much stronger international demand for processed products.
🇨🇳 The return of Chinese buyers after Golden Week remains a major focus, but it does not automatically imply a sharp increase in US soybean purchases. Brazilian soybeans continue to hold a significant price advantage for delivery into China.
🚢🇧🇷 During Q2, the delivered cost of Brazilian soybeans into Shanghai was around $63/t below US origin on some routes. This is also visible in physical flows, with Brazilian shipments to China more than ten times larger than US volumes.
🇧🇷 Brazil exported 7.36 MMT of soybeans in September, around 25% less than in August but nearly unchanged from last year. Seasonal export pressure is gradually easing, although Brazil’s price advantage remains.
🚢 Soybean meal is receiving additional support from strong European demand. Argentine meal traded around $7/t above Brazilian origin last week amid active EU buying and logistics constraints in Argentina’s Up River export corridor.
🛢️ The external backdrop for soybean oil remains mixed. High crude oil prices support the biofuel component, but expectations for large Malaysian palm oil stocks create competitive pressure. At the same time, disruptions to Black Sea sunflower oil supplies are already encouraging India to increase palm oil purchases.

Bottom line: Soybeans are slightly higher today, but trading has become much more cautious after Tuesday’s strong move. Slow US harvesting, strong domestic crush demand and active meal demand support the market, while Brazil’s price advantage, weaker US bean exports and uncertainty ahead of WASDE limit further upside.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn is slightly lower today after Tuesday’s strong recovery. The market is giving back part of the previous gains as a stronger dollar and caution ahead of WASDE weigh on sentiment, while slower harvesting and deteriorating crop conditions continue to limit the downside.
🚢🇺🇸 US exports remain strong. The US shipped a record 7.422 MMT of corn in August, up 25.7% from July, while ethanol exports also reached an August record.
🏭🇺🇸 Domestic industrial demand also remains solid. Around 528 million bushels of corn were used for alcohol and other industrial purposes in August, including 478 million bushels for fuel ethanol, approximately 4% more y/y.
🚢🇧🇷 Brazil exported 5.21 MMT of corn in September, nearly 12% more m/m but 31.1% below last year. Seasonal Brazilian supply is increasing, although the large year-on-year decline reduces competitive pressure on US exports.
🚢🇰🇷 South Korea is holding a tender today for 207,000 t of corn. This is not yet a confirmed purchase, but the return of a major Asian buyer supports the broader international demand picture.
🇵🇭 The Philippines is considering increasing its corn import tariff quota from 220,000 t to 500,000 t due to risks to domestic production and high feed costs. This could create an additional channel for Asian import demand.
🇨🇳 In China, however, feed demand for corn is weakening. Corn’s share in feed rations fell from 47% in January to 29% in August, while projected 2026/27 consumption was reduced to 322 MMT as producers increasingly use wheat, barley, sorghum and broken rice.
📑 Ahead of WASDE, the market is focused on a possible revision to US yield estimates following summer heat, drought and heavy September rainfall. Deteriorating crop conditions support expectations for a potential reduction, although large carry-in stocks remain an important counterweight.

Bottom line: Corn is slightly lower after Tuesday’s strong recovery. Slower harvesting, weaker US crop conditions, strong exports and resilient ethanol demand provide support, while softer Chinese feed demand, large stocks and caution ahead of WASDE continue to limit the recovery.

🌾 Wheat

📉 CBOT wheat is lower today after Tuesday’s strong rally. Part of yesterday’s gains is being corrected as the stronger dollar and partial recovery of Russian exports through the Baltic weigh on prices, while slow US winter wheat planting and active international demand limit the decline.
🚢🇷🇺 Russia has partially adapted its export flows to disruptions in the Azov-Black Sea basin by redirecting more grain through Vysotsk and Ust-Luga. SovEcon raised its estimate for September shipments to 2.4 MMT, while potential October exports are seen at up to 2.5 MMT.
🚢🇷🇺 At the same time, total Russian seasonal exports remain well below last year. Around 6.8 MMT were shipped in July-September compared with 11.3 MMT a year earlier. Around 54% of September seaborne shipments were already routed through the Baltic.
🇷🇺 SovEcon lowered its Russian wheat crop estimate by 0.7 MMT to 87.5 MMT. The smaller crop supports the global balance, although the near-term effect is partly offset by the recovery of export flows through the Baltic.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat exports are not yet showing strong year-on-year acceleration. The US shipped 2.057 MMT in August, up 24.8% m/m but down 23.5% y/y.
🇺🇦 UkrAgroConsult raised its Ukrainian wheat production estimate to 25.6 MMT due to strong yields. However, July-September exports totaled only around 2.7 MMT, down 42% y/y, meaning large physical supplies have not yet translated into equally strong export volumes.
🚢🇯🇴 Jordan has again issued a tender for up to 120,000 t of milling wheat after its previous tender ended without a purchase. The buyer’s quick return to the market confirms continued physical import demand.
🇲🇦 Morocco may reduce imports somewhat after a better domestic harvest, but low stocks mean the country should remain a significant buyer. French suppliers expect shipments of around 2.5 MMT in September-May, compared with 3.5 MMT a year earlier.
🚢🇦🇺 Australia is already expanding its presence in markets traditionally supplied by Black Sea wheat. Bulk wheat shipments to East Africa, Yemen and Oman increased 72% y/y in August, showing a clear redistribution of global trade flows.

Bottom line: Wheat is correcting lower after Tuesday’s strong rally. The recovery of some Russian exports through the Baltic and a stronger dollar are creating pressure, while slow US planting, a lower Russian crop estimate, limited Ukrainian exports and active international import demand continue to provide support.