Market Report 07.08.2026

General market overview

• 🚢 Black Sea logistics remain under pressure. Russia struck three more Ukrainian vessels overnight, while ongoing export disruptions continue to restrict grain flows from the region.

• 🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy now warns that grain storage facilities could reach capacity by early October, one month earlier than the previous estimate of early November.

• 🌍 FAO reported that global food prices reached a three-year high last month. This is increasing market attention to Black Sea disruptions and risks to global supply.

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🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 Strong Chinese demand continues to partially offset pressure from a favorable US weather outlook. According to market rumors, China bought another 10–15 cargoes of US soybeans yesterday, August 6.

• 🇨🇳 Total Chinese purchases of new-crop US soybeans are approaching 6 MMT, equivalent to around 25% of the estimated 25 MMT commitment. Demand could remain steady ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in late September as China demonstrates progress toward previous purchase commitments.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall across the central and eastern belt remains a bearish factor for soybeans, although the western belt and northwestern Iowa still need moisture. The share of US soybean acreage under drought remained at 26% this week, compared with only 3% last year.

• 🚢🇨🇳 China’s soybean imports in July fell 1.6% y/y, but January–July imports reached 61.51 MMT, compared with 61.05 MMT last year. This indicates that the overall import pace remains stable.

• 🚢🇧🇷 Brazil’s soybean exports increased 9.3% y/y in July, while soybean meal exports rose 17.9%. However, Brazilian shipments to China have recently slowed noticeably as China works to fulfill its US soybean purchase commitments.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US soybean export sales for the week ended July 30 totaled 32,000 t for the current marketing year and 904,000 t for new crop, or 936,000 t combined. Cumulative new-crop sales reached 18.5% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 16.2% five-year average.

• 📉 Soybean meal sales totaled 248,000 t, while soybean oil sales were minimal at 3,900 t. Cumulative meal sales reached 97.6% of the USDA forecast, while soybean oil reached 84.2%.

• 📈 Some short covering is possible into the end of the week as soybeans look oversold. The 1170 level in November soybeans is now a key pivot zone: a close below it would be a negative signal, while active Chinese demand may indicate that buyers see this level as attractive value.

Bottom line: The soybean complex is supported by active Chinese buying and the possibility of short covering ahead of the weekend. However, confirmation of rainfall in the western belt during the second week of the forecast could restore pressure, making Sunday’s weather-model update particularly important.

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🌽 Corn

• 📈 Corn has held up better than expected despite the favorable weather outlook, as global fundamentals remain supportive. Buyers retain the advantage as long as prices hold this week’s support levels.

• 🇪🇺 EU corn production potential continues to deteriorate. French crop conditions fell another 3 percentage points, while production was cut to 9 MMT – the lowest level since 1980 and 35% below last year.

• 🇺🇦 Due to Black Sea export disruptions, the US agricultural attaché cut Ukraine’s corn export forecast for the current marketing year to 14 MMT, which is 9 MMT below USDA’s July estimate. As Ukraine supplies nearly two-thirds of EU corn imports, the EU may increase purchases of US corn in the coming months.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Rainfall is expected across the eastern half of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and most of the eastern belt, while the western belt and southern Plains will receive considerably less moisture. The share of US corn acreage under drought declined 1 percentage point to 28%, compared with only 3% last year.

• 🇦🇷 Argentina’s corn harvest is 74% complete, although some delays remain possible due to rainfall.

• 🇧🇷 Brazil’s corn exports fell 20.2% y/y in July, partly due to significantly higher ethanol production in interior regions.

• 📑 Corn open interest fell by more than 20,000 contracts yesterday. Today’s COT report is expected to show a Managed Money net long position just below 150,000 contracts.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn export sales for the week ended July 30 totaled 117,000 t for the current marketing year and 1.027 MMT for new crop, or 1.144 MMT combined. Cumulative new-crop sales reached 11.9% of the USDA forecast, compared with the 15.5% five-year average.

• 📊 The next WASDE is expected to show US corn yield at 182.4 bu/acre, slightly below the July estimate of 183.0 bu/acre. Old-crop ending stocks could be reduced due to stronger exports, while the EU production forecast is likely to be cut sharply again.

Bottom line: Corn is supported by weaker EU production, a lower outlook for Ukrainian exports and the potential for stronger demand for US corn. Further upside will depend on whether the western belt receives meaningful rainfall during the second week of the forecast.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat is starting stronger today after failing to recover in the previous session. Support comes from another sharp increase in drought-affected HRS acreage and additional Black Sea risks.

• 🌾🇺🇸 The share of HRS wheat under drought increased another 16 percentage points, following a 17-point jump the previous week, reaching 58%, compared with 35% last year. After a small US winter wheat crop, a strong HRS harvest is needed to avoid a further decline in ending stocks.

• 🚢🇺🇦 The US agricultural attaché cut Ukraine’s wheat export forecast for the current marketing year to 10.8 MMT, well below USDA’s July estimate of 14.5 MMT. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy lowered its forecast even further to 8.3 MMT, compared with 17.6 MMT at the start of the season.

• 🇫🇷 French soft wheat production in 2026 is estimated 4% lower y/y, while durum production is down 16.6%. This adds support to the European wheat balance.

• 🌦️🇺🇸 Potential rainfall across the Plains during the second week of the forecast pressured the market yesterday, but these rains still need to be confirmed early next week. If the forecast fails to materialize, HRS risk could again become a stronger market driver.

• 📈 Global fundamentals are increasingly supportive for buyers, but prices have yet to show strong upside momentum this week. After yesterday’s one-month low, sellers still hold the technical advantage, although current weakness may prove temporary.

Bottom line: Wheat is supported by worsening HRS conditions, lower Ukrainian export forecasts and weaker French production estimates. However, the market still needs confirmation of upward momentum to change the technical picture, while potential Plains rainfall in the second week of the forecast remains the key risk.