Market Report 06.10.2026

Grain markets rise as Black Sea risks increase and US harvest delays support prices

General market overview

📈 Major agricultural markets are mostly higher today. Soybeans, corn and wheat are trading up, while soybean oil is lower. Grain markets are receiving additional support from renewed risks to Black Sea shipping.
🚢 Risks to commercial shipping in the Black Sea increased after attacks on two merchant vessels in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone. One vessel sank, while another carrying grain was damaged. Responsibility for the attacks had not been definitively established at the time of reporting. The incident broadens the geographical scope of Black Sea logistics risks and could complicate freight and insurance conditions.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 CBOT soybeans continue to recover today. Soybean meal is the strongest part of the complex, while soybean oil is lower, meaning support for beans is coming mainly from the protein side and broader improvement in agricultural market sentiment.
🌧️🇺🇸 US soybean harvesting continues to lag after earlier heavy rainfall. As of October 4, 25% of the crop had been harvested versus the 33% average, while Iowa was only 5% complete compared with the usual 38%. However, drier and warmer weather this week could allow fieldwork to accelerate sharply.
🫛🇺🇸 US soybean conditions deteriorated slightly, with the share rated good or excellent falling by 1 percentage point to 57%. This provides some support, although the market is increasingly focused on actual harvest progress.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US soybean export inspections totaled 1.138 MMT, including 756,500 t shipped to China. Season-to-date inspections reached 3.986 MMT, up 30.9% y/y, confirming a strong current export pace.
🇨🇳 However, actual shipments to China do not imply an equivalent volume of new purchases. Separately, USDA confirmed a sale of 104,000 t of soybeans to an unknown destination for delivery in the 2026/27 marketing year.
🌴📉 The external backdrop for soybean oil is weaker today. Malaysian palm oil declined amid expectations of high September stocks, while weaker crude oil is adding pressure to biofuel markets and vegetable oils.
🏭🇺🇸 Maintenance at several US biofuel facilities remains an additional near-term risk for soybean oil demand. The shutdowns may have reduced soybean oil use in September, although official data confirming the scale of the decline have not yet been released.
🚜🇧🇷 According to Conab, Brazil had planted 9.4% of its soybean area as of October 2, compared with 8.2% last year and the 8.8% average. Rainfall helped accelerate planting in Mato Grosso and Goiás, although uneven moisture and high temperatures continue to create local risks.
🏭🇧🇷 Brazil’s soybean processing capacity increased 13.1% y/y to 86.4 MMT, while Abiove estimates actual 2026 crushing at 63.5 MMT. Expansion of the sector could increase domestic soybean use while also raising potential supplies of soybean meal and oil.

Bottom line: Soybeans continue to recover, supported by stronger soybean meal, delays to the US harvest and a solid export pace. However, drier weather could quickly accelerate harvesting, while weaker palm oil, lower crude prices and potentially softer biofuel demand continue to pressure soybean oil and limit broader gains across the complex.

🌽 Corn

📈 CBOT corn is trading higher and attempting another recovery after weaker recent sessions. Delayed US harvesting, deteriorating crop conditions and stronger wheat provide support, while large carryover stocks and the prospect of faster harvesting continue to limit upside.
🌽🇺🇸 The share of US corn rated good or excellent fell from 57% to 54% over the week. Harvest is 23% complete versus the 27% average, with significant delays still reported in Iowa and Nebraska following excessive rainfall.
🚜🇺🇸 At the same time, 83% of US corn has reached maturity, in line with the average pace. Drier and warmer weather this week could quickly accelerate harvest progress and increase new-crop supplies reaching the market.
🌦️🇺🇸 Weather remains a two-sided factor. Current harvest delays are restricting nearby physical supply, but fieldwork could accelerate sharply once soils dry. Rainfall and colder air may also return late this week and next week.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export inspections totaled 1.368 MMT, lower than the previous week but 13.5% above last year. Season-to-date shipments reached 7.11 MMT, up 4.4% y/y, keeping the overall export pace ahead of last year.
🚢🇧🇷 Brazilian corn remains highly competitive in the Chinese market. At least 710,000 t of Brazilian corn is expected to arrive in China in October, while estimated delivered costs remain below US origin, limiting US prospects even if tariffs are eased.
🚜🇧🇷 Planting of Brazil’s first corn crop reached 30.8%, compared with 29.1% last year and the 27.9% average. Overall progress remains ahead of normal, although excessive moisture in the south and localized storm damage continue to create regional risks.
🚜🇺🇦 Ukraine has harvested corn on 6% of the area, producing 1.623 MMT at an average yield of 5.52 t/ha. Most of the crop is still ahead, so early yield results should not yet be extrapolated to the final seasonal outcome.
📑 Ahead of the October 9 WASDE, the market continues to balance deteriorating US crop conditions against large carryover stocks and the prospect of a rapid seasonal increase in supply once weather improves.

Bottom line: Corn is higher and attempting to extend its recovery. Delayed US harvesting, weaker crop conditions and a strong current export pace provide support, while large stocks, the possibility of faster harvest progress and highly competitive Brazilian corn continue to limit stronger upside.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat continues to rise after the previous positive session. CBOT futures are higher today, while Euronext wheat is also advancing. Renewed risks to Black Sea shipping are the main source of support for both markets.
🌾🇺🇸 US winter wheat planting is significantly behind schedule, with 36% of the area planted versus the 46% average. Emergence reached 16% compared with 20% normally. In Kansas, planting is only 24% complete versus the usual 40%.
🌦️🇺🇸 Previous rainfall was the main reason for planting delays, although a drier forecast could allow farmers to reduce some of the backlog. Weather is therefore supporting prices through slower fieldwork while simultaneously improving soil moisture for the future crop.
🚢🇺🇸 US wheat exports remain weak. Weekly inspections totaled 302,400 t, down 10.3% w/w and almost 49% below last year. Season-to-date shipments are running approximately 35% behind last year.
🚢🇧🇷 Brazil’s Abitrigo estimates that the country may need to import around 9 MMT of wheat in the current cycle, compared with an initial estimate of 7.5 MMT. The increase is linked to weather-related crop losses and quality problems for millers and could create additional demand in the global market.

Bottom line: Wheat continues to rise on both CBOT and Euronext. Black Sea shipping risks, significant delays to US winter wheat planting and prospects for stronger Brazilian import demand support prices, while weak US export shipments and the possibility of faster planting under drier weather limit further gains.