Market Report 06.08.2026

Favorable US weather pressures corn and soybeans, while Black Sea disruptions and stronger import demand support wheat and vegetable oils.

General market overview

🚢 Black Sea logistics remain unstable. Russia attacked a wheat-carrying vessel at the Port of Odesa overnight, while Ukraine continues searching for alternative export routes.
🚢🇺🇦🇷🇴 Ukraine and Romania agreed to expand exports through the Port of Constanța. However, other routes through neighboring countries remain restricted following political decisions introduced in 2023–2024.
🌍 Risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz remain important for agricultural markets due to the potential impact on fertilizer supplies. Mosaic warned that global phosphate production could fall 30% below last year’s level.

🌦️ Weather

🌦️🇺🇸 A wet US forecast continues to pressure soybeans and corn. Rainfall is expected across parts of the central and especially eastern production regions during the next week, while the second week of the outlook shows improving rain chances for the western Corn Belt. Temperatures should remain moderate across the main production areas, with heat largely confined to the southern Plains and the far western belt.
🌡️🇪🇺 Weather risks for European corn and wheat remain relevant as EU crop estimates continue to be revised lower, including the outlook for soft wheat production.
☀️🇦🇺 Western Australia is expected to face a drier weather pattern in August due to the influence of El Niño, creating additional risk for Australian wheat.

🫛 Soybean complex

📈 CBOT soybeans are attempting a modest recovery today, but the market remains under pressure from the wet forecast for the central and particularly eastern belt. However, downside momentum has partly stalled after China returned with another round of large US soybean purchases.
🇨🇳 China reportedly bought another 13 cargoes of US soybeans yesterday, bringing total new-crop purchases to nearly 6 MMT. This represents around 25% of an estimated 25 MMT commitment and could support demand ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in late September.
🌦️🇺🇸 Mild temperatures are expected across the central and eastern belt, with highs mainly in the 70–80°F range through the middle of next week. Heat should remain concentrated in the southern Plains and the far western belt. Confirmation of second-week rainfall in the western belt could ease some crop stress.
📑 Soybean open interest fell by slightly more than 14,500 contracts yesterday, reaching its lowest level since the first week of June. This indicates that buyers of the summer weather premium are leaving the market.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US soybean export sales are expected at 100,000–400,000 t for old crop and 900,000 t–1.5 MMT for new crop. Soybean meal expectations stand at 100,000–400,000 t for old crop and 100,000–250,000 t for new crop, while soybean oil sales are expected to remain minimal.
📉 Downside momentum in soybeans has paused, but the key question is whether Chinese demand can outweigh favorable US weather. If Sunday’s forecast confirms rainfall in the western belt during the second week, the market could face another wave of selling early next week ahead of WASDE.

Bottom line: The soybean complex remains caught between support from Chinese demand and pressure from favorable US weather. Prices may hold support into the weekend, but confirmation of second-week rainfall in the western belt could renew selling pressure ahead of WASDE.

🌽 Corn

📉 CBOT corn tested this week’s lows overnight as the wet forecast continues across parts of the central and especially eastern production areas. Favorable weather remains the main short-term obstacle for buyers.
🌦️🇺🇸 The second-week forecast shows improved rainfall chances in the western Corn Belt, where the driest conditions have persisted. If confirmed, these rains could remove additional weather premium from corn prices.
🇪🇺 Fundamentals outside the US weather outlook remain supportive. France’s corn crop could fall to a 50-year low, while Expana lowered its EU corn production forecast to 49.1 MMT, compared with 53.7 MMT last month.
🚢🇺🇦 Ukraine supplies around 64% of EU corn imports, while renewed attacks on ports continue to disrupt Black Sea exports. This could strengthen potential EU demand for US corn in the coming months.
⛽🇧🇷 Brazil’s increase in the mandatory ethanol blend to 32% took effect this week, adding a supportive factor for the biofuel segment.
⛽🇺🇸 US ethanol production for the week ended July 31 declined by 2.3% w/w, but remained 2.4% above last year and reached a new record for this week of the year. Stocks fell by 0.8% w/w, but remained 3.2% higher y/y and were also record-high for the corresponding week.
🚢🇺🇸 Weekly US corn export sales are expected at 200,000–600,000 t for old crop and 700,000 t–1.2 MMT for new crop. The next WASDE report could raise the old-crop export forecast and reduce ending stocks.
📑 Fund selling during the first three days of the week is estimated at around 42,000 contracts. Some short covering is possible ahead of the weekend, but favorable weather continues to limit the recovery.

Bottom line: Corn remains under pressure from the wet US forecast and the possibility of improving conditions in the western belt. However, fundamentals outside the weather outlook remain supportive. A weaker EU crop, Black Sea export disruptions, strong expectations for US exports and a possible WASDE stocks reduction could limit further losses.

🌾 Wheat

📈 Wheat is attempting to extend its recovery on CBOT and MATIF after the previous decline. However, intraday rallies this week have failed to hold, meaning the market still needs a catalyst to generate a new wave of buying.
🚢 Black Sea wheat prices continue to decline due to rising stocks at Ukrainian and Russian ports. This is limiting the futures market’s response to logistics risks, although exports from the region remain disrupted.
🚢 Export disruptions are occurring during a critical seasonal period. Ukraine normally ships around 53% of its annual wheat exports between August and November, while Russia ships approximately 45%. The longer disruptions continue, the greater the risk of shipments falling behind schedule.
🇪🇺 Expana lowered its EU soft wheat production forecast to 126.8 MMT, compared with 128.3 MMT last month. This strengthens fundamental support for the European market.
🚢🇩🇿 Algeria purchased up to 720,000 t of wheat in yesterday’s tender, close to the 800,000 t bought in the previous tender in mid-June. This provides a strong signal of import demand.
📈 Fundamentals are increasingly supportive for buyers, but the market still needs a technical catalyst to attract fresh demand. A move above this week’s high could trigger a broader recovery.

Bottom line: Wheat is attempting to extend its recovery on CBOT and MATIF, supported by constrained Black Sea exports, a lower EU soft wheat production forecast and Algeria’s large purchase. However, until the market breaks above this week’s high, technical momentum remains insufficient.

🌻 Sunflower complex

🇷🇺 A major Russian sunflower oil producer halted operations at the Port of Taman following a Ukrainian strike late last week. This came after production was suspended at a major Ukrainian sunflower processing facility.
🇺🇦 Oilseed crushing plants in southern Ukraine have stopped processing sunflower seed and rapeseed due to missile attacks, infrastructure damage and the suspension of seaborne exports of meal and vegetable oils.
🚢 Lower sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea region are supporting sunflower and palm oil prices. Indian bid prices for sunflower oil increased by $15/t over the week, while Russian export prices rose by $15–20/t.
🛢️ The sunflower oil shortage is being partly offset by higher palm oil shipments from Malaysia and record soybean oil exports from Argentina.