Market Report 05.11.2026

🫛 Soybean complex

• 📈 Soybean futures on CBOT are attempting to recover after an extended losing streak. Oversold conditions and a partial rebound in crude oil are supporting prices, although abundant South American supplies and the risk of further position liquidation continue to limit upside potential.

• 📊 Soybean open interest declined by another 2,600 contracts in the previous session, confirming continued position liquidation. Meanwhile, soybean oil fell to a six-month low following the sharp decline in energy markets. Today's crude oil recovery has therefore provided only partial relief.

• 🚢🇨🇳 China remains a key factor for US soybeans. Following the election results, uncertainty has increased over the pace of implementation of the announced purchase program of around 25 MMT. However, there is currently no confirmation that Beijing has changed its purchasing policy.

• 🚢🇧🇷 Brazil's October soybean meal exports are estimated at 2.49 MMT, approximately 763,000 t or 44% higher y/y. Growing Brazilian supplies are intensifying competition at a time when US soybean meal is already under pressure following substantial long-position liquidation.

• 🇪🇺 According to Donau Soja, EU soybean production is estimated at just 2.4 MMT, down 20% y/y, while average yields are approximately 15% below the five-year average. Lower domestic production increases Europe's potential need for imported soybeans and processed soybean products.

Bottom line: Soybeans are attempting to recover after a sharp decline, but the current move remains largely corrective. A stronger fundamental catalyst is needed to establish a sustainable rally, as abundant supplies continue to weigh on the market.

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🌽 Corn

• 📉 CBOT corn is trading slightly lower today. Strong physical demand and ethanol sector performance are limiting losses, but abundant US supplies and high production estimates continue to dominate the market balance.

• 📊 Total open interest increased by approximately 23,400 contracts, indicating fresh positioning in the market. However, part of the increase reflects the rollover of positions from December into deferred contracts.

• 🏭🇺🇸 US ethanol production rose to 1.143 million barrels per day, its highest level in more than nine months, while stocks declined to 24.434 million barrels. Ethanol exports also increased by approximately 27%, reinforcing corn demand from the ethanol sector.

• 🚢🇺🇸 US corn exports reached a September record of 7.084 MMT, while ethanol exports were approximately 36% higher y/y. Recent physical market data therefore paint a stronger demand picture than the generally weak tone in futures markets.

• 🚢🇧🇷 Brazilian competition remains significant. ANEC estimates November corn exports at approximately 6.02 MMT, slightly above last year's level. This limits the potential for the US to aggressively expand its share of global trade.

Bottom line: Corn remains under modest pressure as abundant supplies continue to outweigh improving demand. Strong ethanol production and exports are limiting downside risks, but have not yet generated sufficient momentum for a sustained recovery.

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🌾 Wheat

• 📈 Wheat futures are attempting to recover after an extended decline. A slower-than-expected recovery in Russian Black Sea shipments and lower Russian export forecasts are supporting the market, although intense global competition continues to limit gains.

• 📉🇷🇺 IKAR lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 from 42 MMT to 39.5 MMT, while its total grain export estimate was reduced from 52.8 MMT to 49.5 MMT. Alternative routes through the Baltic, railways, and containers have limited spare capacity, while the end of river navigation could add further logistical pressure.

• 🚢🇷🇺 The market has already priced in much of the potential return of Russian grain shipments through the Sea of Azov, although a substantial physical recovery has yet to materialize. Current movements through the Kerch Strait appear more like temporary access for individual vessels than the full reopening of a reliable export corridor.

• 🚢🇪🇬 Egypt imported just 1.15 MMT of wheat in October, down 42% y/y. January–October imports declined by 6.2% to 10.18 MMT. Weaker Egyptian demand remains one of the factors limiting a stronger recovery in global wheat prices.

• 🚢🇯🇴 Jordan announced a new tender to purchase up to 120,000 t of milling wheat for January–February delivery, after its previous tender ended without a purchase. The importer's return to the market provides an additional demand signal.

• 🇧🇷 According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil's wheat production is estimated at just 5.09 MMT, down 37% y/y, while wheat and flour imports could rise to a record 9.75 MMT. This creates an additional source of global import demand.

• 🌧️🇺🇦🇷🇺 October rainfall significantly improved soil moisture reserves in Ukraine, although winter crop development remains 2–3 weeks behind normal in many areas following earlier drought conditions. Moisture deficits persist in western Russia, maintaining production risks for the 2027 crop.

Bottom line: Wheat is attempting to recover as the actual availability of Russian export supplies remains more limited than previously priced in. However, ample global supplies and intense export competition continue to restrict the scale of the recovery.